Road to 2024

[axcellence]

Guys.. the finals have cleared it all up for me.

The St Kilda list has just too many holes and too few talented players.

GWS had Scully and Shaw missing, then lost Kelly in the first half, yet they pummelled Sydney and kept them to 30 points at the SCG (in a final). Sydney scored a few cheap goals in the end, but they were stuck on 18 points until very late in the game.

Sydney regularly pummels St Kilda by 60+ points.

This is not a one-off game issue. The entire list is not up to scratch.

Let's just say that at the trading table, St Kilda pulls a bunny out of the hat like the Hawthorn picks a couple of years ago - still, St Kilda's list will not come up to a finals team level.

So, I think it's time to bite the bullet and say reset to 2024. The last 5-year plan failed and move on. It will mean moving on Richo and getting a new coach.

Again, short-term pain, but I think most of the supporters are adults and can understand it. The sooner this board starts on it, the sooner everyone can move on.

Get rid of players who don't want to stay and start the rebuild.

Alternatively, the board will keep coming up with "Oh, we are almost there" and will get to 2020 with no clothes.

[fugazi]

We are miles away. Our best possible side looks very ordinary. How much is this to do with the coach and his gameplan? Maybe 50%
We need to stockpile young talent, and we will have to draft them, because no-one wants to be traded to us.

Could Paddy attract a late first rounder?
If Billings genuinely wants out would we get a first rounder? I think so.
We might snare a second rounder for Longer and
Lonie? Newnes for a late second ?

And keep pick 4 in this draft FFS.. off the table.

If we could have 3 first rounders and a couple of second rounders in this draft ... we could begin the rebuild properly.

[Ghost Like]

I agree Fugazi. Melbourne took a couple of goes to get it right through the draft. Of course it means we need to first target quality recruiters & a coach who knows how to build a team and a game plan, from defence first, then how to attack.
Melbourne have built from within with only a couple of shrewd trades for experience. They were then able to sell their club to a targeted player on big dollars.
They moved on Frawley who didn't want to be there and got overs thanks to their ladder position.
They are now very attractive to any quality out of contract player / FA and can choose whether or not they are suitable.
By rights, now the compromised drafts are finished, this rebuild could happen quicker than expected.
We make our own luck so the recruiting needs to be smart and tailored to our needs and an original, specific game plan and style by Richo's successor.
If we have players on our list that don't wish to work hard, take ownership for their own shortcomings, offer no buy in and think their draft position or number of games guarantees them spots and large salaries...bye bye!

[iwantmeseats]

This list has is around 4 years off challenging I agree.
In fact previous few of any of them will remain by then.

[Vazelos]

That is pretty accurate we are a fair way away with the lack of free agent success that seems to continue this year.
We are after Menzel, 4 time knee reconstructions later & Hannebery who looks past his best.
Not very exciting is it? Swans have salary cap pressure so they may buckle with Hannebery because there is no way our top pick is going out.
We will trade back into 2nd and 3rd round & another 4th most likely with players like Longer, Hickey, Weller& Lonie etc & a contracted player that we have not heard about yet.

My belief is we cannot trade away our top picks because we cant attract elite talent through free agency.
We have to stay strong and keep picking up Hunter Clarks and Nick Coffields in the draft.
Pick 3 or 4 should land us a Max King and if he develops and Paddy is ok but not top line we could possibly trade Paddy in a couple of years for example.

Our lack of success at Free Agency will be the death knell of Alan Richardson end of 2019.
We must go for a strong experience coach not an "L Plater" which is normally the Saints way and build a story that can attract some free agents.

[Scollop]

Get Mark Williams

He was there at GWS when those 18 year olds needed development.

Choco was also at the Tigers for a number of years and he helped mould what we see today out of a number of Tiger players

[saintbob]

It’ll be a whole lot longer if Damien Barrett’s comments are true; that we’ve baaically committed to both Hannebery and Menzel.

[The_President]

Billings is contracted. Don't let him go.

[The Fireman]

4yrs is reasonable given how far backwards we have gone. we will waste another year under AR

[Harvey To Hayes]

Guys.. the finals have cleared it all up for me.

The St Kilda list has just too many holes and too few talented players.

GWS had Scully and Shaw missing, then lost Kelly in the first half, yet they pummelled Sydney and kept them to 30 points at the SCG (in a final). Sydney scored a few cheap goals in the end, but they were stuck on 18 points until very late in the game.

Sydney regularly pummels St Kilda by 60+ points.

This is not a one-off game issue. The entire list is not up to scratch.

Feel need to play devil’s advocate and point out that this narrative ignores the fact that we were only one terrible non-free to Jake away from beating GWS themselves...

[Harvey To Hayes]

Guys.. the finals have cleared it all up for me.

The St Kilda list has just too many holes and too few talented players.

GWS had Scully and Shaw missing, then lost Kelly in the first half, yet they pummelled Sydney and kept them to 30 points at the SCG (in a final). Sydney scored a few cheap goals in the end, but they were stuck on 18 points until very late in the game.

Sydney regularly pummels St Kilda by 60+ points.

This is not a one-off game issue. The entire list is not up to scratch.

Feel need to play devil’s advocate and point out that this narrative ignores the fact that we were only one terrible non-free to Jake away from beating GWS themselves...

[To the top]

And, later in the season we beat Melbourne and should have beaten Hawthorn

In still looking at this site to see if there is any credible information from contributors who have earned respect you really do view some irrelevant nonsense

From Drafting Billings, Dunstan and Acres we are how many games into the rebuild?

Clark and Coffield are the most recent additions - and we will add Pick 4 later this year

The problem is the experience that supports our recent higher Draft Picks absent Fisher, Dempster, Riewoldt and Montagna who were all class

And Hickey is far and away our best ruck option - supported by Marshall

Talk of trading the likes of Billings and McCartin is nonsense of the first order and would set the Club back a generation

The Coach?

Agree there is a question because he coaches and selects in his own image - a dour trier not quite up to standard hence a role player

We have to move past that and encourage our kids to deliver on their ability and their ambition to be the best in the competition because that is what they aspire to progress to

Enjoy

I trust something meaningful appears on this site at some time!

[mad saint guy]

I think we could be pushing finals in 2020 if we get a better coach and trade/recruit intelligently and aggressively.

Tough call number one has to be Paddy - largely because he is at the very bottom of my rankings for our tall forwards. See if we can get a pick in the teens for him. Newnes isn't going to take us anywhere; get pick 30 or so for him. Dunstan could get similar value. Lonie should be able to get us a pick in the 40s. Absolutely refuse to trade Billings, Acres or Steven unless the offer is too good on our end to pass up.

Preferable trade scenario

McCartin - Pick 15
Dunstan - Pick 30
Newnes - Pick 35
Longer - Pick 40
Lonie - Pick 45
Armitage/Weller - Minor late upgrade or token late pick

Go to the draft with picks 3, 15, 30, 35, 40, 45, 57. Throw money at any FA who will improve our team. Keep targeting talented young players struggling for opportunity (Membrey, Steele, Austin) who will come for unders.

Despite that massive list clean out our best 22 for 2019 would still be more competitive than it was this year and we would have a heap of new talent on the list. I think there's every chance we barely land a player from another side this year but if we get back on track in 2019 then players will start wanting to come to us again and we'll still have the cap space to beat all other offers. Win 8 or 9 games with a young, exciting team in 2019 and the likes of Kelly, Shiel, Wines, Cerra etc would start seriously looking at us again when they decide to come home.

2019 team

B: Webster, Austin, Geary
HB: Roberton, Carlisle, McKenzie
C: Acres, Steele, Sinclair
HF: Billings, Marshall, Long
F: Gresham, Bruce, Membrey

Foll: Hickey, Steven, Ross
Int: Clark, Coffield, Phillips, Walsh/Smith/Rankine

[mad saint guy]

Talk of trading the likes of Billings and McCartin is nonsense of the first order and would set the Club back a generation

Agree regarding Billings, but do you see McCartin as being in our best 22 currently and in the future? I have Bruce, Membrey and Marshall comfortably ahead of him and Battle could easily overtake him as well. Bruce and Membrey have the proven ability, Marshall has the size, athleticism and versatility while Battle has raw talent, skills and endurance. Paddy has natural ability but severely lacks athleticism and is constantly hampered by his health and injury issues. One more bad head knock would end his career as well.

We all know key forwards take longer than others but a look at the stats of other key forwards at the same age is concerning for Paddy.

At 22 years of age McCartin averages 9.7 disposals, 4.8 marks 0.9 goals per game for the season

Taylor Walker averaged 14.4 disposals, 6.7 and 3.3 goals per game at the same age
Josh Kennedy 12.6 disposals, 6.9 marks, 1.9 goals
Tom Hawkins 12.6 disposals, 5.1 marks 1.2 goals
Joe Daniher 13.2 disposals, 6.4 marks 1.9 goals
Tom Lynch 15.1 disposals, 5.5 marks, 2.1 goals
Jarryd Roughead 12.8 disposals, 4.6 marks, 2.7 goals
Jesse Hogan 14.2 disposals, 5.1 marks, 2 goals
Charlie Dixon 12.6 disposals, 4 marks, 1.8 goals
Jarrad Waite 13.3 dispoals, 5.7 marks, 1.7 goals

He is so far behind where all of the key forwards of the competition were at the same age and I just don't see him catching up to them. It seems likely that he's not going to reach that level and is going to be closer to the quality of a Jack Redpath, Josh Walker or Shane Kersten (who have all got significantly more runs on the board than Paddy to date). The tall forwards taken early in the draft in recent years have all struggled badly (Boyd, Patton, McCartin, Schache) and cases from a few more years ago show that they don't always come good. In fact the last star key forward taken in the top 5 of the draft was Josh Kennedy in 2005. Top 10 flops in that time also include Scott Gumbleton, Mitch Thorp, Beau Dowler, Jarrad Grant, Tyrone Vickery, John Butcher and arguably Jack Watts. The fact is a whole lot of key forwards who are selected with early draft picks don't make it, and all signs point to McCartin becoming one of those.

[fugazi]

Talk of trading the likes of Billings and McCartin is nonsense of the first order and would set the Club back

I've worked with alot of currency traders. The ones who made money were the ones who recognized early they had made a poor trade and got out early.
The ones who lost money, were those that had little flexibility around their position. They made a call, and stuck to it and hoped the bad call would magically come good. Needless to say, they didn't last long.
Footy is obviously different, but it is a very StKilda thing to do, to wait and hope.

I would prefer Billings to stay and the coach to go.
But if we idiotically persist with Richo, we need to get the best deal for Billings.
Paddy is a bust...while we can still get something for him we should before it becomes transparent to all that he is cooked.

[Beno88]

While I agree the list has some holes, explain how St Kilda has beaten all six remaining finalists in the last 41 games if the playing group is so poor?

Development and directive is the issue, not talent.

[To the top]

Membrey is not a KPP

He is 188cm who plays above his height

Battle, similarly, is not a KPP

Marshall is a 200cm relief ruck (supporting Hickey) and where both can go forward to create a mismatch

Our KPP forwards are McCartin and Bruce

Around them the other players mentioned become far more potent

Then we fix the other problems

To trade Steven, a 3 time B&F winner at the Club would be akin to trading Robert Harvey

Steven is far and away our most potent mid field player and is dangerous going forward

To trade him would tear the heart from the Club

More to the point, he should be made Captain

[Joffa Burns]

In still looking at this site to see if there is any credible information from contributors who have earned respect you really do view some irrelevant nonsense

I trust something meaningful appears on this site at some time!

Wow To the top, when I read your posts my first thought is always the famous George Carlin quote -
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.”

Tell us how one goes about earning respect on an anonymous internet forum from the great oracle To the top? I’m sure it’s something the majority of us mere mortals aspire to.

My view is that height is our point of difference, particularly in attack

We have McCartin and Bruce, Membrey and Battle (neither KPP but play above their height and therefore more dangerous given the presence of McCartin and Bruce) plus we have Marshall particularly and Hickey both able to go forward (Hickey having the major ruck responsibilities and Marshall a relief ruck/utility)

“Small forwards” - Gresham and Long with Lonie to keep pressure on given his finish to 2018

Quality height - particularly in attack

A good big man will always beat a good small man

And tall players do not get any shorter as the game wears on

Two old and true adages

Enjoy!!

So you subscribe to a “quality height” forward half set up with McCartin, Bruce, Membrey, Battle and Hickey and Marshall able to go forward. My first question is where is the quality?
Mc Cartin – developing, Battle – developing, Marshall – developing, Bruce – average mature KPP, Hickey – average ruck unknown key forward, Membrey quality lead up mid-size forward.

Of these players Membrey, Marshall & McCartin average about 1.1 contested marks per game and are the best of the bunch in the air. In 2018 we averaged just under 50 inside 50’s per game this season, 10 of these on average per game resulted in a mark inside 50.

Your theory might have worked in the 50’s and 60’s To the Top, but in modern football you need a mix of agility, speed and endurance.

Battle provides endurance and some speed but lacks agility and lateral movement, lacking agility & speed is Mc Cartin, with Hickey a ruck and Marshall a developing player with good potential. Bruce is more mobile and Membrey fits the required bill in all areas.

I agree to lead and work with your strengths and not follow, but let’s look at the undisputed top team ATM. Doesn’t bother with average talls, plays one tall Jack, one big bodied mid forward Caddy and a fleet of small pressure forwards with pace and pressure.

What will happen when we have McCartin, Battle, Membrey, Bruce and one of Marshall or Hickey forward and the ball hits the deck? Will it be the nimble agile Battle, Marshall, McCartin & Bruce combo that pressures the opposition and causes a turn over? Or will we rely on increasing our contested marks from 10 per game to double the league leader (14 per match) and hit 30 per match to gain our advantage?

So a good big man beats a good small man?
Where is your good big man?
How can height be our strength when these players are average at best or developing?

[saint64]

To trade Steven, a 3 time B&F winner at the Club would be akin to trading Robert Harvey

Surely you can't be serious?! Jack is a very good player, but he aint no Robert Harvey!