Key position players in the top 10 of the draft

[cwrcyn]

A lot of people have bemoaned our selection of Paddy McCartin in his draft year. So...let's look at the draft from 2000 to 2011 and see what the strike rate is of bagging a star key position player in the 1 to 10 draft range.

2000

1. Reiwoldt...superstar
2.Koschitzke...good player cursed by injuries, but a solid career
4.Luke Livingston...disaster for Carlton


2001

4. Graham Polak.. talented player who managed a couple of good seasons, but overall fell well short of expectation

2002

9. Hamish McIntosh..ruck/key position.. a solid B grader for a few years then fell off the cliff in his mid to late 20s
10 Jason Laycock..never reached any great heights. A short and unimpressive career

2003

6. Kepler Bradley...struggled at Esseondon before being traded to Free, where he had a couple of decent seasons, but never as a true key position player
9. David Trotter..struggled and was ineffective as an AFL player.

2004

2 Jarryd Roughead...Star!
5. Lance Franklin. ..Superstar
6. Tom Williams...talented player crueller by injury...his career never got off the ground
8 John Meesen...disaster for Adelaide

2005

4. Josh Kennedy.. took him about 4 years to get going but has been a start ever since
6. Beau Dowler...disaster for Hawthorn

2006

2. Scott Gumbleton... talented but injury prone.. career never took off
3 Lachie Hansen..handy B grade defender who had a reasonable career
6. Smith Thorp..disaster for Hawthorn
8. Ben Reid...fine player crueller by injury later in his career
10 Nathan Brown..solid dependable Key back

2007

5 Jarrad Grant...never got going .. a waste of a pick for the Dogs
8 Lachi Henderson. A fine key defender

2008

1. Jack Watts..never cracked it as a key position player...a handy spare parts man who goes missing when it counts
5. Michael Hurley..Very good key defender
8. Tyrone Vickery...flakey, inconsistent forward who never reached any heights
10. Phil Davis.. star backman

2009

8 John Butcher.. started well and faded so quickly. A nothing career

2010

3. Sam Day. Good Key position player...will he get to A grade??

2011

1 Jonathan Patton...Injured all the time..never really got going
9. Adam Tomlinson...recruited as a key position player but plays on a wing..a solid player

[damienc]

Great information. Thanks for posting

[sunsaint]

SO if the intention is to point out that it is a mistake to recruit key forwards with a top 10 pick
Should we have gone for Bailey Smith instead of an already injured forward?

[gringo]

So in all likelihood King is going to be a fail too?

[cwrcyn]

You're much more likely to get a star midfielder in the top ten that a star key position player, but that probably applies to all rounds of the draft. I think it just shows the risk involved when recruiting a tall. What was interesting was the number of those talls who struggled with injuries, often shortening or ruining careers. What it also shows, I think, is that it's easy to be 197cm and dominate in an under 18 competition. The fact is, most of the time you're not up against much. Then you come into the big league and it's another story. The temptation to play these guys early has become too much to resist for most clubs. I think Koschitzke would have been a better player and played many more games if he hadn't been thrown into the hard stuff so young. He injured his back in his first season, which set off a domino effect with injuries because the coaching staff wouldn't put the brakes on. One player not on that list is Tom Boyd. Number one pick...he's played about half a dozen good games of football and now he has a crook back.

Go back a few decades and a lot of those tall guys would play a couple of years of reserves football, developing their fitness and improving the size and strength before being exposed the the big time.

I suppose it's an argument that can swing back and forth and go around in circles. There is no definite answer on whether it's too risky to pick up a key position player in the top 10. What it really shows is that it's a gamble. Hawthorn got lucky with Franklin and Roughead, but had a couple of stinkers in Dowler and Thorp. Essendon got lucky with Hurley, but bombed out on Gumbleton, Bradley, and Laycock. The Bulldogs were really unlucky with Tom Williams, who could have been a star but for injuries. They bombed on Jarrad Grant. He could never put on the kgs to really be the player people thought he'd be. And now they have Tom Boyd on a multi-million dollar contract which may end up being a real millstone.

When we got McCartin, it was only ever going to be 50/50 bet whether he would make it, irrespective of the unfortunate and freakishly unlucky events with his concussions.

We should never just expect that a top 10 pick is just going to make it, irrespective of what kind of role they play. The stats bear this out, and in some draft years the first round has been quite unremarkable.

We can bitch and moan about our recruiting, but all clubs have their stinkers, but they are often papered over by the benefit of having great father/son picks or Academy picks, or free agents knocking on their door...something we've never had at the Saints. And sometimes it's about timing. Sometimes there's a Nick Riewoldt waiting at number 1, and sometimes there's a Tom Boyd (or a Paddy McCartin). You just have to hope that when it's your turn at the bottom that there's an absolute standout star there for you. Carlton got lucky this year, unlike the years they got Kreuzer and Walker.

[gringo]

You're much more likely to get a star midfielder in the top ten that a star key position player, but that probably applies to all rounds of the draft. I think it just shows the risk involved when recruiting a tall. What was interesting was the number of those talls who struggled with injuries, often shortening or ruining careers. What it also shows, I think, is that it's easy to be 197cm and dominate in an under 18 competition. The fact is, most of the time you're not up against much. Then you come into the big league and it's another story. The temptation to play these guys early has become too much to resist for most clubs. I think Koschitzke would have been a better player and played many more games if he hadn't been thrown into the hard stuff so young. He injured his back in his first season, which set off a domino effect with injuries because the coaching staff wouldn't put the brakes on. One player not on that list is Tom Boyd. Number one pick...he's played about half a dozen good games of football and now he has a crook back.

Go back a few decades and a lot of those tall guys would play a couple of years of reserves football, developing their fitness and improving the size and strength before being exposed the the big time.

I suppose it's an argument that can swing back and forth and go around in circles. There is no definite answer on whether it's too risky to pick up a key position player in the top 10. What it really shows is that it's a gamble. Hawthorn got lucky with Franklin and Roughead, but had a couple of stinkers in Dowler and Thorp. Essendon got lucky with Hurley, but bombed out on Gumbleton, Bradley, and Laycock. The Bulldogs were really unlucky with Tom Williams, who could have been a star but for injuries. They bombed on Jarrad Grant. He could never put on the kgs to really be the player people thought he'd be. And now they have Tom Boyd on a multi-million dollar contract which may end up being a real millstone.

When we got McCartin, it was only ever going to be 50/50 bet whether he would make it, irrespective of the unfortunate and freakishly unlucky events with his concussions.

We should never just expect that a top 10 pick is just going to make it, irrespective of what kind of role they play. The stats bear this out, and in some draft years the first round has been quite unremarkable.

We can bitch and moan about our recruiting, but all clubs have their stinkers, but they are often papered over by the benefit of having great father/son picks or Academy picks, or free agents knocking on their door...something we've never had at the Saints. And sometimes it's about timing. Sometimes there's a Nick Riewoldt waiting at number 1, and sometimes there's a Tom Boyd (or a Paddy McCartin). You just have to hope that when it's your turn at the bottom that there's an absolute standout star there for you. Carlton got lucky this year, unlike the years they got Kreuzer and Walker.

Weitering and Schache look pretty average so far too, Naughton looks pretty good so far and Noah Balta went later and is talked about as a potential star already. Hugh Goddard on the other hand was talked about as a potential pick 1 and never made an imapct.

[cwrcyn]

The Weitering situation reads like the Koschitzke situation. Too much, too soon. Stupidly thrown around by the coach to fill holes that should have been filled by senior players, and copping a ton of physical punishment in the process. The guy is a natural defender and the coach has set his player back a few years to cover his own job. Really stupid by the coach and grossly unfair on Weitering. Schache seems to not have the aggression or toughness to withstand the rigours of AFL football. I hope i'm wrong about that, though. Naughton looks like a high quality player, in the same mould as Phil Davis.

And then you look back...Brian Lake at Pick 71, Sam Fisher at 55, Justin Westhoff at 71, Cale Hooker at 54, Scott Thompson at 37, Ben Stratton at 46, Tom McDonald at 53, Ben Brown at 47, and Jeremy McGovern a rookie selection. It's a raffle, people

[cwrcyn]

From 1997 to 2015, the following clubs have had F/S selections of significant talent

Collingwood...5 players
Geelong 4
Bulldogs 4
Essendon 2
Sydney 2
Brisbane 1
Port 1
Hawthorn 1
Melbourne 1
North 1


The rest , including us.. a big fat zero.

[cwrcyn]

Interestingly, Geelong, Collingwood, and the Bulldogs had at least two F/S players playing in their premierships. Geelong had three in 2009. Do you think they would have even made the grand final without Scarlett, Ablett, and Hawkins? You see, some clubs have gifts that fall on them from the heavens.

[Dave McNamara]

This year's draft?

The whisper is that we're already right onto it. Our talent scouts have been instructed to leave no turn un-stoned (you know the rest... ) to find us the best young half back flanker/inside mid/injured key forward with chronic health issues in the country.


And unlike some of the Chicken Little cheese-eating surrender-monkeys on here, I have faith in our recruiters' ability to deliver!

[takeaway]

This year's draft?

The whisper is that we're already right onto it. Our talent scouts have been instructed to leave no turn un-stoned (you know the rest... ) to find us the best young half back flanker/inside mid/injured key forward with chronic health issues in the country.


And unlike some of the Chicken Little cheese-eating surrender-monkeys on here, I have faith in our recruiters' ability to deliver!

Excellent news.

[Spinner]

A lot of people have bemoaned our selection of Paddy McCartin in his draft year. So...let's look at the draft from 2000 to 2011 and see what the strike rate is of bagging a star key position player in the 1 to 10 draft range.

2000

1. Reiwoldt...superstar
2.Koschitzke...good player cursed by injuries, but a solid career
4.Luke Livingston...disaster for Carlton


2001

4. Graham Polak.. talented player who managed a couple of good seasons, but overall fell well short of expectation

2002

9. Hamish McIntosh..ruck/key position.. a solid B grader for a few years then fell off the cliff in his mid to late 20s
10 Jason Laycock..never reached any great heights. A short and unimpressive career

2003

6. Kepler Bradley...struggled at Esseondon before being traded to Free, where he had a couple of decent seasons, but never as a true key position player
9. David Trotter..struggled and was ineffective as an AFL player.

2004

2 Jarryd Roughead...Star!
5. Lance Franklin. ..Superstar
6. Tom Williams...talented player crueller by injury...his career never got off the ground
8 John Meesen...disaster for Adelaide

2005

4. Josh Kennedy.. took him about 4 years to get going but has been a start ever since
6. Beau Dowler...disaster for Hawthorn

2006

2. Scott Gumbleton... talented but injury prone.. career never took off
3 Lachie Hansen..handy B grade defender who had a reasonable career
6. Smith Thorp..disaster for Hawthorn
8. Ben Reid...fine player crueller by injury later in his career
10 Nathan Brown..solid dependable Key back

2007

5 Jarrad Grant...never got going .. a waste of a pick for the Dogs
8 Lachi Henderson. A fine key defender

2008

1. Jack Watts..never cracked it as a key position player...a handy spare parts man who goes missing when it counts
5. Michael Hurley..Very good key defender
8. Tyrone Vickery...flakey, inconsistent forward who never reached any heights
10. Phil Davis.. star backman

2009

8 John Butcher.. started well and faded so quickly. A nothing career

2010

3. Sam Day. Good Key position player...will he get to A grade??

2011

1 Jonathan Patton...Injured all the time..never really got going
9. Adam Tomlinson...recruited as a key position player but plays on a wing..a solid player

So hit and miss isnt it!

Ps trotter I think was a mid.

Some absolute disasters for selections in that list - must go to show how hard it is to pick!

[bigred]

How good are we eh.

King will be a gun though.