Final Predictions

[Newman]

Did some 'ladder predictions/calculations. I reckon we'll need to win 6 games out of final 9 games to be assured of a final spot. After that loss to Dons and Port ... it's a tough ask. If some of the teams in 8 drop a few 'should win' gaames we might squeeze in with 13 wins. Brisbane, Geelong, Freo and Melb should make top 4.

[Devilhead]

Yep - 2 wins out of the next 4

Swans
Blues
Freo
Bulldogs

Then wins against Eagles & Hawks

Then 2 out of the last 3

Geelong
Brisbane
Swans

That would be 14 wins which should be plenty enough for Top 8 ..... 7 wins would give us a shot at Top 4 especially if we beet Cats & Freo

If we only win 5 and get to 13 wins we are probably relying on % to get into Finals

[SaintPav]

Geelong play North 3 times and West Coast 4 more times.

They might struggle.

[WellardSaint]

The games vs Tigers/Hawks/Cats were amazing.
They were 'the new normal'

The Dons' game reveals our true brand and revealed that the 3 great games showed what we needed to do, and some players have since decided it's all too hard and they've thrown in the towel.

Last year, the soul-searching review, post-Swans game, was the watershed.
Like a recovering addict, the team has regressed.
It's all too hard

[Sanctorum]

Latest polls suggests St Kilda will finish 9th or lower, which will be confirmed if they lose to the Swans and Carlton - win those 2 games then they should finish in top 8 provided there are no repeats of the shocker "against the flow" efforts last Friday night against the "hapless" Bombers.

The biggest concern I have is that not even in the 8 wins so far has the team played 4 quarters of consistent high quality football, it has been mainly a couple of dominant quarters that have secured the victories.

Looking back to the pre-season, there was no love from the AFL media experts for St Kilda's chances to make the tip 8, and if we're honest with ourselves that was probably a fair call because other than the 3 young draftees the club had not brought any star quality players on to the list.

What I find frustrating is that the team continues to stagnate, much as it has for the last 10 years, with some extraordinarily poor (or unlucky??) recruiting in those years:

2013 - Billings over Bontempelli & Cripps
2014 - McCartin over Petracca, Brayshaw & Miller
2015 - Carlisle for Parish
2016 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ben Long selected at pick 25
2017 - Clark & Coffield over Naughton & Fritsch
2019 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ryan Byrnes was the first selection at pick 52.

Six years of missed opportunities, little wonder the St Kilda list has no real AA star power, other than Max King in 2018!

Oh well, here we go again, halfway through the season and on the brink of success or failure, all will be revealed around 9:50 pm Saturday night!

[Impatient Sainter]

I have very much a more pessimistic view than 3 weeks ago. I think the club had a major reality check in recent weeks and as a result I dont expect them to play finals. On current form I dont expect too many wins in the run home -

Sydney - Loss
Carlton - Win
Freo - Loss
Bulldogs - Loss
WCE - Win
Hawthorn - Win
Geelong - Loss
Brisbane - Loss
Sydney - Win

Because the club/team are so mentally flawed, if I am being realistic I dont expect to play finals. Even if they do they will only limp in and not trouble anyone. I know things can change quickly in football, but last week the club again displayed a real soft underbelly that has been haunting them for years.

[Saintmike65]

My thoughts before the Essendon game were we wouldn’t make the 8 if we lost to them.
That hasn’t changed…my pre season prediction was we’d win 12 but miss finals on percentage…see how it pans out!
The bastards are likely to defy the odds & come out and beat Sydney this week!!

[Saintmike65]

Latest polls suggests St Kilda will finish 9th or lower, which will be confirmed if they lose to the Swans and Carlton - win those 2 games then they should finish in top 8 provided there are no repeats of the shocker "against the flow" efforts last Friday night against the "hapless" Bombers.

The biggest concern I have is that not even in the 8 wins so far has the team played 4 quarters of consistent high quality football, it has been mainly a couple of dominant quarters that have secured the victories.

Looking back to the pre-season, there was no love from the AFL media experts for St Kilda's chances to make the tip 8, and if we're honest with ourselves that was probably a fair call because other than the 3 young draftees the club had not brought any star quality players on to the list.

What I find frustrating is that the team continues to stagnate, much as it has for the last 10 years, with some extraordinarily poor (or unlucky??) recruiting in those years:

2013 - Billings over Bontempelli & Cripps
2014 - McCartin over Petracca, Brayshaw & Miller
2015 - Carlisle for Parish
2016 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ben Long selected at pick 25
2017 - Clark & Coffield over Naughton & Fritsch
2019 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ryan Byrnes was the first selection at pick 52.

Six years of missed opportunities, little wonder the St Kilda list has no real AA star power, other than Max King in 2018!

Oh well, here we go again, halfway through the season and on the brink of success or failure, all will be revealed around 9:50 pm Saturday night!

This is exactly why we supporters bemoan our lack of midfield class…consistently drafting in flankers in the hope they’d become mids.

[Mr Magic]

Essendon used their own pick to draft Parish - he was never available to us.
Our pick (traded for Carlisle) was used on Aaron Francis

[bigcarl]

Going on the Dons game we won’t be playing any finals. Long way back from there

[Devilhead]

Bit too early to be throwing in the towel ..... lots to play out

[bangaulegend]

Big ask now with our draw. I said at the start of the year IMO we would finish around 10 th spot looks like I might be close .

[Yorkeys]

The AFL's dream 8 does not include us.
It's Lions, Suns, Sydney, GWS, Perth side, Adelaide side, and two of Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, Hawthorn.
Now I would never suggest that has anything to do with arranging the draw.

[Impatient Sainter]

Latest polls suggests St Kilda will finish 9th or lower, which will be confirmed if they lose to the Swans and Carlton - win those 2 games then they should finish in top 8 provided there are no repeats of the shocker "against the flow" efforts last Friday night against the "hapless" Bombers.

The biggest concern I have is that not even in the 8 wins so far has the team played 4 quarters of consistent high quality football, it has been mainly a couple of dominant quarters that have secured the victories.

Looking back to the pre-season, there was no love from the AFL media experts for St Kilda's chances to make the tip 8, and if we're honest with ourselves that was probably a fair call because other than the 3 young draftees the club had not brought any star quality players on to the list.

What I find frustrating is that the team continues to stagnate, much as it has for the last 10 years, with some extraordinarily poor (or unlucky??) recruiting in those years:

2013 - Billings over Bontempelli & Cripps
2014 - McCartin over Petracca, Brayshaw & Miller
2015 - Carlisle for Parish
2016 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ben Long selected at pick 25
2017 - Clark & Coffield over Naughton & Fritsch
2019 - first round pick traded for someone unremarkable because Ryan Byrnes was the first selection at pick 52.

Six years of missed opportunities, little wonder the St Kilda list has no real AA star power, other than Max King in 2018!

Oh well, here we go again, halfway through the season and on the brink of success or failure, all will be revealed around 9:50 pm Saturday night!

Exactly Sanctorum.

I like others have always said strong midfields win finals and big games and until we have that we are going no where. Jones, Crouch, Ross & Gresham are all 3rd rate mids which has been highlighted since the loss of Steele. WTF Ratten hasnt thrown Sinclair and other players more regularly through the middle has me completely dumbfounded. I dont know whats going on in that coaching box on match days, but it simply doesnt involve footballing smarts thats for sure. Friday it was like watching a "a deer in the headlights", he was frozen in time.

[older saint]

My ladder predictor had us 6th v Richmond elimination final - (sure to be at their home ground).
Won't be a happy household if that happens with my mixed marriage.

[shanegrambeau]

.....
Sydney - Loss
Carlton - Win
Freo - Loss
Bulldogs - Loss
WCE - Win
Hawthorn - Win
Geelong - Loss
Brisbane - Loss
Sydney - Win

....

I will bettcha a bottle of sake or shochu - i send
for a six pack of Coopers Red (stubbies)

Sydney - Loss
Carlton - Loss
Freo - Win
Bulldogs - Win

WCE - (agree)**** but highly dubious....It is just up our alley!
HAwthorn - (agree)
Geelong - Win
Brisbane - Loss
Sydney - Loss

5 wins including three unlikely, incredible, odds defying
4 losses including at least two of the inexplicably appalling, sense defying, spirit sucking kind

[Sanctorum]

Essendon used their own pick to draft Parish - he was never available to us.
Our pick (traded for Carlisle) was used on Aaron Francis

Sorry MM, that's incorrect - Essendon traded Carlisle to St Kilda for the Saints #5 pick in 2015 AFL NAB Draft and selected Darcy Parish:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/201070/carl ... aves-swans

Aaron Francis was selected by Bombers for their pick 6.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 15&t=N&s=P

Remember it well as Parish was toted to become elite midfielder, which now appears to have come to pass.

In 2014 St Kilda finished 2nd last, so assume that they must have sacrificed 2015 Pick 2 to trade in someone else who faded into obscurity....yet another nail in St Kilda' coffin

It's be interesting to know where our club is placed in the historical records of poor judgment by AFL club list managers and recruiters - probably the most influential and important individuals in the destiny of footy clubs.

[SaintPav]

The above post is incorrect.

Pick 5 became pick 6 because of an AFL player academy bid made by Sydney for Callum Mills.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_AFL_draft

[Mr Magic]

Essendon used their own pick to draft Parish - he was never available to us.
Our pick (traded for Carlisle) was used on Aaron Francis

Sorry MM, that's incorrect - Essendon traded Carlisle to St Kilda for the Saints #5 pick in 2015 AFL NAB Draft and selected Darcy Parish:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/201070/carl ... aves-swans

Aaron Francis was selected by Bombers for their pick 6.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 15&t=N&s=P

Remember it well as Parish was toted to become elite midfielder, which now appears to have come to pass.

In 2014 St Kilda finished 2nd last, so assume that they must have sacrificed 2015 Pick 2 to trade in someone else who faded into obscurity....yet another nail in St Kilda' coffin

It's be interesting to know where our club is placed in the historical records of poor judgment by AFL club list managers and recruiters - probably the most influential and important individuals in the destiny of footy clubs.

I believe I am correct and you are incorrect.
The Bombers used Pick #5 for Parish but it was their existing Pick (#4) which had slipped one space down the order.
They then used our Pick (#5) which had slipped to #6 to select Francis.

[Beno88]

Let's hope the last nine rounds reflect the first seven, not the last six.

Rounds 1-7
5-2
Average For : 87.86
Average Ag : 68.28
Ave Scoring Shots For : 25.00
Ave Scoring Shots Ag : 19.71

Rounds 8-14
3-3
Average For : 77.83 (-10.03)
Average Ag : 79.50 (+11.22)
Ave Scoring Shots For : 19.50 (-5.50)
Ave Scoring Shots Ag : 24.50 (+4.79)

21 point and 10 scoring shot swing.

The most concerning part, 50% of the games in Rounds 8-14 were against teams in the bottom 4.

None of the games in Rounds 1-7 were against bottom 4 sides.