WHO SHOULD BE NERVOUS AS ST KILDA WEIGHS UP HOW DEEP TO CUT LIST?

[Sanctorum]

Following article by Jay Clark appeared in today's Hun as part of their fortnightly series into the health, structure and outlook of every club's list.

A comprehensive summary of the situation at Moorabbin, well researched.....

"NOT FOR THE SAINT HEARTED
WHO SHOULD BE NERVOUS AS ST KILDA WEIGHS UP HOW DEEP TO CUT LIST?

Some list managers reach for the small scissors at season’s end.

Others opt for the full-length hedge trimmers.

New St Kilda list boss Stephen Silvagni will be thinking about the chainsaw.

When the Saints made the shock decision to punt coach Brett Ratten last year, there was a not-so-subtle acknowledgment that the club’s list was stuck in no-man’s land.

The salary cap was full to the brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.

So, after winning only three of their last 11 games last year, the Saints’ powerbrokers went to the freezer, reached for the tub of neapolitan ice cream and realised there was only strawberry flavour left.

That is not to say there aren’t a lot of capable players at Moorabbin. There are.

The thing about the Saints’ list is that more than 30-odd players could play next week and be fine.

But that’s the approach that has elevated the club from 16th in 2018 to only 10th under Ratten in 2022.

It won one final in that time (over Western Bulldogs in 2020, despite having two fewer scoring shots ), before it dawned on the club last season. It has a mediocre list.

The very deliberate top-up strategy had not worked.

President Andrew Bassat said it himself in the club’s review findings when he declared St Kilda was guilty of “focusing impatiently on short-term outputs”.

Now, the question is not whether St Kilda needs to make changes. It is how hard do they go? Does Silvagni bust out the chainsaw or not in six months’ time?

One of the club’s most respected figures, Nick Riewoldt, was forthright last year after participating in the club review, saying he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard”.

“When you look at the young talent who are gonna form the elite core of this club for the next five to 10 years, there isn’t much there,” he said. Bassat said the club had to commit to a longer-term vision under Lyon, “even if this does make the short-term more difficult for us”. “We do need to improve our stock of top-end talent,” Bassat added.

Complicating matters, it is a considerably tough time to rebuild when the top-four teams have all got better entering 2023, leaving a decent-sized gap between the two ends of the ladder.

Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Carlton all improved, at least on paper.

But the problems are twofold for St Kilda.

Not only is there is a distinct lack of top-end talent, but the salary cap is also fuller than it should be for a team that missed finals last year and is now in an “exploration phase” under Lyon. There are too many mid-tier players on above average money.

When they brought in wave after wave of mature-age players in recent years, the Saints had to overpay in some cases, because the club is yet to establish itself as a true destination club for the top-end talent. And perhaps the club thought it was closer to a premiership than reality would suggest?

The Saints had always been goers under Ratten, but where is the class? The firepower? The difference-makers?

The previous list management strategy “to drive greater competitiveness through trades” lifted the club out of the bottom four in 2018, but has now officially made way for an “updated plan” amid sweeping personnel change in the football department.

Unless Lyon can work some sort of miracle on the field, the list will need a considerable recalibration at the end of the year to realign the cap, inject some more A-graders and build on a new core to help break the longest premiership drought in the game. But that is four or five years away.

CRUNCH YEAR
THAT is why Silvagni and Lyon will take the season to make key decisions on which players not only take the club forward on the field at a justifiable price, but also who can help drive standards off the field.

Over the next six months in the club’s 150th season, some tough calls will have to be made by Silvagni. Who can take this success-starved club forward? There are some quality pieces to work with, and Marcus Windhager, Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Max King represent the next generation of Saints’ stars to take the baton from Jack Billings, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster, Daniel McKenzie and co. Billings, who was taken at pick three ahead of Marcus Bontempelli in 2013, is entering his 10th season and has likely played his best football, finishing fourth (2019) and fifth (2017) in the best-and-fairest.

The Saints delisted No.1 pick Paddy McCartin amid his concussion issues after just 35 games, but he has since established himself as an All-Australian-calibre defender as part of a remarkable career revival at Sydney.

Hard-nut utility Hunter Clark can deliver on his potential, linebreaker Wanganeen-Milera is the best kick at the club, and rookie picks Rowan Marshall and Jack Sinclair are crucial cornerstones. Lyon will love Brad Crouch’s unwavering effort in the clinches and Jack Higgins and Dan Butler will have big roles to play cranking up the pressure in a small forward line early in 2023. Captain Jack Steele is a dual All-Australian, and the heartbeat of the team.

Jade Gresham provides power and polish in the engine room, and is always threatening forward, but St Kilda may have to fight hard to keep him as a free agent.

If Kysaiah Pickett shocks Melbourne with a trade request – and the Demons aren’t expecting one – Gresham would be an ideal replacement target for the Dees.

So there are some building blocks at Moorabbin, and Phillipou was open with recruiters last year about how he wants to become the best player in the game.

Essendon thought long and hard about taking him at pick five over Elijah Tsatas.

It will be a compelling journey, and Phillipou can produce some spine-tingling footy busting through packs midfield and forward.

But beyond the 2021-22 draft hauls, there is a big black hole.

From 2018-20, King is the one hit and Jack Bytel has shown promise despite injury issues.

But to be blunt, St Kilda has paid a price for giving up on the draft as a club over that period.

It is unfair to pin that just on previous list boss James Gallagher, but rather everyone at the club who makes decisions in helping set the Saints’ direction.

Ultimately, the trajectory flatlined when Ratten was sacked with two years left on his contract after 11 wins in his final season in charge.

The Saints had made a mistake extending his contract in the first place, but the Saints identified in the review they needed a different style of leadership from its new coach. An uncompromising edge.

In 2017, they took hard nut Clark (pick seven) and rebounding defender Nick Coffield (eight) and the club is hopeful they can develop into top-line playmakers.

But the Saints considered trading Clark last year and Coffield is coming off a knee reconstruction. It is a big season for the duo. A big season for a lot of players.

In 2018, the recycling trucks fired up as the club picked up Matthew Parker, Nick Hind, Hannebery, Robbie Young, Dean Kent, Ryan Abbott, Brad Hill, Howard, Ryder, Butler, Zak Jones, Tom Highmore, James Frawley, Shaun McKernan, Crouch and Higgins.

Ryder was excellent and among the most impactful ruckmen in the game at the Saints, and Mason Wood has been a nice find, and free.

But nine of the 17 are gone and Hannebery and Hill cost the club a packet. North fought hard for Howard at the time, driving up his price.

It is unclear whether Jones is still in the Saints’ best 22.

TICK, TOCK
CHRIS Toce is not a household name, but the Saints’ recruiting manager has one of the biggest jobs in footy making sure the club nails its picks in the next few drafts.

That is how St Kilda can replenish the list and begin the upward climb, but it will require patience over the next few years. The club will wonder which of its players who aren’t in its future plans will have any trade currency, and Silvagni will be all ears to any attractive offers at season’s end to help build their draft hand.

Is that Clark, Coffield, Billings or Ross?

Perhaps, North Melbourne is the best comparison when it cut 11 players in one swoop after winning only three games in 2020.

The Kangaroos had the chance in 2018 to accelerate the rebuild, but instead they went for a top-up method, too, which also backfired, adding Dom Tyson, Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard.

Brad Scott finished up as coach the following year.

At St Kilda in 2019, the club gave up picks 12 and 18 for Howard, Ryder and pick 10 in return. But 10 went to Fremantle for Brad Hill.

It means the Saints missed out on their chance to take young stars such as Pickett (pick 12), Will Day (13), Cody Weightman (15), Mitch Georgiades (18) and Sam De Koning (19), but it is easy in hindsight.

Higgins and Hannebery, who played 18 games in four years, effectively cost second-rounders.

THIS DRAFT
ST Kilda will start the 2023 season without an established key forward in round 1, after taking 19-year-old Anthony Caminiti under the supplemental selection period rules.

The Saints are among the long line of clubs assessing Carlton key forward-ruck Tom De Koning.

The gun tall is out of contract, but he is not a free agent.

This means the Saints will have to give up something in a trade to land him, unless there is a Jack Martin-style pre-season draft move in mind.

Silvagni drafted De Koning to Carlton at pick 30 in 2017, but would be reluctant to give up an early single-figure pick for De Koning if the Saints finished in the bottom-four.

Gold Coast prodigy Ben King has long been on St Kilda head of talent and acquisition Graeme Allan’s wishlist, but the Suns would want the world in return if he ever requested a trade.

Allan remains at the club as strategy consultant. He is Silvagni’s right-hand man.

But for now, King says he is happy up north.

Preferably, the Saints will want to keep their early picks in this year and next year’s draft to build out that nucleus of younger talent.

In 2016-17, Lyon’s rebuilding Dockers took Griffin Logue (pick eight), Sean Darcy (38), Brennan Cox (41) and Luke Ryan (66), followed by Andrew Brayshaw (two) and Adam Cerra (five), who was turned into key forward Jye Amiss (pick eight) when he moved to Carlton.

Two strong drafts helped turn the Dockers’ fortunes around.

But this is where free agency can also help the Saints attract some more top-liners such as GWS Giants’ tall Harry Himmelberg, without giving up a draft pick in a trade. Can he become star of the game?

The Saints have enough role players.

What they need as part of this fresh start under Lyon is more A-graders."

[Rubyjo]

Too early

[saynta]

Crap article and far too soon to be writing anyone off.

Journo does not give any credit to the coach and his assistants that maybe they can turn supposed spuds into diamonds.

What do we have a preseason for if its just a waste of time and nobody is going to improve.

RTB said on Footy Classified that they were pretty happy with what they have.

[Yorkeys]

1. Fitness and medical staff.

2. Unless there is a dramatic improvement in their consistent availability: Hayes, McKenzie, Billings, Coffield, possibly Jones.
Bit pointless having unlimited potential but being unavailable for the best part of 2 or more seasons and always, seemingly, on the brink of an injury. As much as I love them its important to have players that are durable, or plain lucky, and available.

BTW, rubbish cut paste article.

[Ghost Like]

Interesting article and a semi-obvious observation. If I did not know better, could have been written by anyone who has followed saintsational for the past dozen years.

The identification of Paddy McC as an AA type defender was the flag that it was not 100% well researched and analysed. I am quite confident there are many more players deserving of a defender's AA position, including a couple on our list. What we need and what we wanted was a AA forward, something he will never be.

Great for thought and discussion but all have been done on SS. The premise is correct but decisions and some players seem to have escaped proper scrutiny.

[saynta]

BTW, rubbish cut paste article.

Yep

[Otiman]

Don't care. Write this article after round 11 at least.

[saynta]

Don't care. Write this article after round 11 at least.

[Vortex]

The salary cap was full to the brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.

before it dawned on the club last season. It has a mediocre list.

It is how hard do they go? Does Silvagni bust out the chainsaw or not in six months’ time?

One of the club’s most respected figures, Nick Riewoldt, was forthright last year after participating in the club review, saying he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard”.


the salary cap is also fuller than it should be for a team that missed finals last year and is now in an “exploration phase” under Lyon. There are too many mid-tier players on above average money.


Unless Lyon can work some sort of miracle on the field, the list will need a considerable recalibration at the end of the year to realign the cap, But that is four or five years away.


It is unfair to pin that just on previous list boss James Gallagher, but rather everyone at the club who makes decisions in helping set the Saints’ direction.


CHRIS Toce is not a household name, but the Saints’ recruiting manager has one of the biggest jobs in footy making sure the club nails its picks in the next few drafts.

Those are my take always.

Interesting Ross mentioned in his presser this week that our salary cap is the same as Geelong's...but Geelong won a flag.

[Vortex]

So thinking about our salary cap issues a little more, question is who is most vulnerable to being cut at seasons end due to taking up too much salary cap because they are not delivering on performance commensurate with their pay packet?

In the mix would have to be:

Billings
Buttler
Higgins
Howard
Jones
Hill
Gresham

Are all of these guys on 600k plus ? Hill definitely is but he could be safe due to being a Lyon favorite.

[CURLY]

So thinking about our salary cap issues a little more, question is who is most vulnerable to being cut at seasons end due to taking up too much salary cap because they are not delivering on performance commensurate with their pay packet?

In the mix would have to be:

Billings
Buttler
Higgins
Howard
Jones
Hill
Gresham

Are all of these guys on 600k plus ? Hill definitely is but he could be safe due to being a Lyon favorite.

No chance Higgins Howard Hill Gresham are getting cut. Would take a very good deal to move them. The other three are a chance at the right price.

[Sanctorum]

I'll ignore the rude imputation that I posted "a crap cut-paste article"

It didn't strike me as far off the mark and I assume that 'club legend' Nick Riewoldt did in fact say he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard”.

Lyon has said a few times that he and his team will be focusing on identifying players that are part of the future, which indicates that there may well be a massive clean-out at the end of 2023.

My list of those under pressure (in alphabetical order):

Matthew Allison - #26 frdp 2020, yet to debut
Jack Billings - been underwhelming, now 27 and past his prime
Leo Connolly - in his 4th year, played 12 games
Jade Gresham - started with a bang but an enigma since, lacks consistency and not team oriented
Tom Highmore - sympbolic of list's overall mediocrity
Zak Jones - a game changer when he's 'on' but more often than not ends up a walking wounded
Daniel McKenzie - can play, but same as Jones
Seb Ross - good player but past prime
Cooper Sharman - could go down as a flash in the pan, played just 18 games in 2 seasons, unless he produces the goods is on death row

Feel free to have a crack at me about Gresh and Ross, forum favourites

[saynta]

The salary cap was full to the brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.

before it dawned on the club last season. It has a mediocre list.

It is how hard do they go? Does Silvagni bust out the chainsaw or not in six months’ time?

One of the club’s most respected figures, Nick Riewoldt, was forthright last year after participating in the club review, saying he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard”.


the salary cap is also fuller than it should be for a team that missed finals last year and is now in an “exploration phase” under Lyon. There are too many mid-tier players on above average money.


Unless Lyon can work some sort of miracle on the field, the list will need a considerable recalibration at the end of the year to realign the cap, But that is four or five years away.


It is unfair to pin that just on previous list boss James Gallagher, but rather everyone at the club who makes decisions in helping set the Saints’ direction.


CHRIS Toce is not a household name, but the Saints’ recruiting manager has one of the biggest jobs in footy making sure the club nails its picks in the next few drafts.

Those are my take always.

Interesting Ross mentioned in his presser this week that our salary cap is the same as Geelong's...but Geelong won a flag.

Do you mean take aways?

[Scollop]

There was a thread back in April 2018, where the op headline stated it would take a decade for the St Kilda footy club to get 'back on track'.

They were right. Get the admin right before you start tinkering around the edges.

We are still 3-4 years away from being a premiership contender, but I think we have some very good operators in our football department. That was always the priority.

I think a lot also hinges on the team having some on field success, which in turn helps your club attract free agents and better quality recruits.

http://saintsational.net/viewtopic.php? ... 5#p1720775

[Scollop]

The other thing that was stated in that thread was that the 'sooner the club started the rebuild the better' it'd be. That was five years ago

http://saintsational.net/viewtopic.php? ... 7#p1723267

Commercial interests as well as people fighting to save their careers got in the way and we tried to top up instead of going for a full rebuild.

Let's hope self interest doesn't get in the way this time and we stop trying to take short cuts

Billings and Seb Ross are worth more to us (going forward) than what we'd get for them. We are 4 years too late in trying to trade these guys.

They can still be role models off field and they can still be consistent contributors on field. We need to retain some of our experienced leaders while we officially go into rebuild mode

[spert]

Any player who has been in the system for a while and can't get their body right- chronic injuries etc, will be looked at I would say, but too early yet.

[Scollop]

And...by the way

Would I have used the word rebuild last year?

No, I wouldn't have because I thought there was a significant change in direction with our recruitment strategy at the end of 2021 and 2022.

It seemed to be a natural progression within the club and it seemed as though the changes with Walsh coming on board plus the new assistants that it was kind of happening any way

The confirmation and exclamation mark was when we failed to land Jordan De Goey

[saynta]

RTB said it will take him 12 months to get a handle on who is staying for the long ride and who is not onboard, yet there are those on here who think they are smarter than those close to the club and have already decided who is staying and who will be booted. Good onya.

[1971]

It seems to me as a person without any real insight is that we recruit players for positions outside of defence then turn them into defenders - Sinclair, Battle and NWM currently come to mind. Then defenders like Highmore and perhaps Coffield might prove to be excess to requirements. I am not sure where this leaves players like Van Es and Adams. Now we also have players like Paton and Webster who seem to be defenders also in some form of limbo. Feel free to rip the crap out of my thinking

[B.M]

That article was

Unoriginal

[Zed]

The reality is, almost everyone is expendable or available for trade at the right price.
The list of players who are non-negotiable is tiny.

Anyone who is out of contract at the end of this season and has struggled to get a game in the seniors (either due to form or injury) is going to be a candidate to get cut

The other half of the equation is who is likely to come in ? .. no point in cutting 10 players if you replace them with 8 kids who are all selected after pick 50 in the draft.

I suspect SoS is going to find us 3-4 experienced players to come in - 1 or 2 experienced players as either trades or free agents, plus another 1 or 2 as supplementary signings.

Well need to go the draft and I suspect they'll be looking at least 3 players in the top 40, and another couple of rookies. So I'll guess it will be 9 new faces next year.