How Long to Master a Game Plan?

[Leo.J]

I don't think I'm alone assuming that we are not upto it this year as far as a flag goes, so I'm already looking to our positive future.

Out of the last 6 premierships, there have been 4 coaches involved. And each of these coaches took at least 3 years to win a flag at their respective clubs.

Matthews took 3 years.
Roos 3 and a half.
Worsfold 5.
Williams 6.

The only recent coach who has had immediate success is Blighty in 97/98, otherwise it usually takes a few years.

Now as we've said before, most players peak between 24-27, or between 100-200 games (there obviously some exceptions).

And as I've posted before, the premiers each year have about half of their side in this bracket, with about 25% being under and 25% being over.

So looking at the above coaching stat, and being realistic about how long it takes to master a game plan you may say that 2009 could be a good year, which is in 2 years time (hopefully earlier).

So adding 40 games (which I thought was reasonable number for most) and 2 years to the players below, this is how our list looks.

Games is the 1st number, then age, the players in bold are the ones who will be in their prime as far as age is concerned in accordance with the above. The ages and games are as of today +40 games and +2 years.

Armitage, David - 43 21
Baker, Steven - 191 29
Ball, Luke - 142 25
Clarke, Raphael - 67 23
Clarke, Xavier - 134 25
Dal Santo, Nick - 157 25
Fisher, Leigh - 83 25
Fisher, Sam - 108 27
Gardiner, Michael S. - 169 30
Gehrig, Fraser - 292 33
Gilbert, Sam - 57 22
Goddard, Brendon - 130 24
Gram, Jason - 89 25
Hamill, Aaron - 230 31
Harvey, Robert (V) - 397 37
Hayes, Lenny - 205 29
Hudghton, Max (V) - 243 32
Koschitzke, Justin - 135 26
Maguire, Matthew - 132 25
Milne, Stephen - 178 29
Montagna, Leigh - 110 25
Riewoldt, Nick - 171 26

I know I'm probably dreaming about Banger, G and Sammy being around in 2 years, but anyway.

The above players aren't neccessarily my best 22 as I assume our list will change in the next 2 years how ever I'm pretty confident that the players in bold will be around in 2009, as well as Hayes and Baker, the others I put in because I thought their stats were interesting, in as far as how old or young they'll be in 2009.

With those players (the bold plus baker and Hayes) as a hardened and experienced nucleus for our 2009 campaign and by then having mastered the RL game plan, as well as having ironed out the deficiencies in our list I would be pretty confident that we will be genuine contenders, if not before.

But with a bit of luck we will be a year ahead of schedual...maybe even 2...I won't be holding my breath on 2 though.

Recent stats suggest that it takes at least 3 years to master and develop a game plan. Our list will be ready IMO in the next 2 years at least, so hopefully the 2 will combine well.

Don't despair Sainters there's light at the end of the tunnel yet.

[Leo.J]

BTW I would assume that with the injuries we had earlier on in the season, our ability to learn and develop our game plan would of been hindered. So potentially it could of delayed our development by half a season. Because a game plan is generally built around your best 22, with different players having different roles, and without most of your list being available its hard to learn a game plan and execute it to its optimum.

To be honest I don't like the Sydney style of footy, IMO its bad for the game, however my assumption is that RL will develop his own more unique brand of GP in time through necessity.

There will obviously be a Sydney influence as RL has had success with that style. However our list has been developed with attack in mind so to achieve a mirror of the Sydney's GP in a short time would be difficult.

There are a few ways for RL go with his list and GP. He either needs to adjust the GP to suit our list, adjust our list to suit the game plan, or meet somewhere in the middle. I'm not sure which will happen, I assume RL will meet somewhere in the middle using our assets within the GP and maintaining what he thinks is successful also, and therefore developing our list accordingly.

Whatever direction RL choses or has chosen, it will take time for it be achieved to the level required to be a genuine contender.

So overall I think in general most people have underestimated the time it takes to implement a GP with any sort of success.

And on a side issue - RL's early season injury crisis has hindered his ability to establish his gameplan. Where as GT's injury crisis effected his abilty to execute an established GP. The only correlation between the 2 ATM is injuries, to compare coaches right now is like comparing oranges and apples, and to criticise RL ATM serves little purpose.

Hopefully RL gets a chance to establish and execute his GP.

GT had plenty of time to establish his GP, but never had the players available to execute it to its full potential, that is in my opinion of course.

[meher baba]

So overall I think in general most people have underestimated the time it takes to implement a GP with any sort of success.

I'm not sure who the "most people" are, but I personally always saw this as an enormous downside in the decision to get rid of a pretty successful coach and his experienced 2IC in September 2006 and replace them with a rookie coach and three rookie assistants.

That said, I think you have wrongly interpreted some of your supporting facts.

Paul Roos took a team that was virtually a rabble to a PF in his first full season as coach, with a game plan that was much the same as they have had ever since. They then lost to us in a close SF in 2004, and got a premiership the next season and made the GF in 2006. In my book, this = 4 seasons of continuing success, not a 3 1/2 year struggle to become successful.

Likewise, Neil Craig took the Crows to a minor premiership in his first full season as coach, and then to a PF the following season. They have dropped back a bit this year with a horrendous injury toll, but it would surely surprise nobody to see them bounce back next year and even win a premiership (and they are by no means totally out of it this year, either).

Both Roos and Craig were rookie coaches who took over teams which already had pretty good lists (like Lyon: although, arguably, he got the best deal of all).

Worsfold and Williams were not only dealing with the issue of trying to get their new game plan across, but also with building up their lists from a lowly point. So they aren't really comparable IMO (although, if you believe some posters on this forum, we have a hopeless list as well).

[saintsRrising]

Well observed MB on the coaches.....




Though on your last point

although, if you believe some posters on this forum, we have a hopeless list as well).

I don't there would be many who think we havea HOPELESS list....

Personally I think we havae good list...but with some flaws in it that need addressing.

[rodgerfox]

I think Leo is on the money.

In regards to Roos and Craig, they were assistants at their respective clubs so the transition was vastly different to what Lyon has had to endure in year 1.

They knew the players, the players knew them. They knew the existing game plan thoroughly also, and would have already known the areas of the list they wanted to address.

Probably worth noting that with a little injury luck, Lyon more than likely would have had this team in the finals in his first year too.

Without boring everyone with my theory again - 2007 was our last crack before we had a lull for 2-3 years.

I totally agree with Leo's post.

[Oh When the Saints]

I'm not sure who the "most people" are, but I personally always saw this as an enormous downside in the decision to get rid of a pretty successful coach and his experienced 2IC in September 2006 and replace them with a rookie coach and three rookie assistants.

I don't think anyone would disagree.

According to David Parkin, it will take the players about one and a half seasons for the gameplan to become ingrained.

Robert Harvey said that it should be second nature after another pre-season.


I reckon by this time next year, we should be a lot better at doing what Lyon wants.


But that's the price you pay for changing coaches.

[iwantmeseats]

Learning the gameplan is NOT the problem. We won t learn it, oyr players are not that type of player in my opinon. There is too much bulls*** science in footy today. Players must be allowed to play on a generous amount of instinct, there is very little of this going on at the saints at the moment unfortunately.

Look at the hawks, the cats , the roos, alot of instinct and attacking footy going on there. We were right at the top of the list not so long ago, until ross the boss and his bright ideas came along.

Personally, we are in real strife. If we are to persist with this, it will be at the very least two years till we can make it work. We are so far from fit enough its a joke.

We are the laughing stock of the league from what I hear round the traps, and I have to agree with them. Fancy flooding your backline, you win the ball...


Cause you have flooded, no one is up foward, no one bar #12 is fit enough to get back quick enough...so what the hell bomb it up to milne of all people with two men on him, FFS its a complete joke.

This style will drive supporters away. I cant ever remember less enjoyment and more frustration in a footy season in my 34 years, I really have to talk myself into going, and thsts something I NEVER dreamed would be possible. Many other saints fans tell me the same, many.

Should we have kept GT? Who f****** cares, that debate is so old and annoying it should be banned....

The point is, did we make the right appointment? Everyone says it needs more time. I say, if this is the path we will continue to go down, that is ULTRA NEGATIVE, then a crucially bad decision has been made.

The coach will be turned over in 2 to 3 years max, and we start all over again with key players again ouyt of contract.

Sound a bit far fetched? Bit of whinge? Well, whatever, thats how I see it, and Im afraid some here are just too blind to the saints faith to see it. I used to be this way as well, till the serious issues ON FIELD started opening my eyes.

Come on people, even with other issues aside, injuries, recruiting in prior years etc etc, whatever you like....this game plan is nothing more than bashing a square peg into a round hole. It aint going to work and I fear the consequences.

Perhaps what I really fear, or fear the most, is how its effecting my enjoyment of footy this year. Ill always love and support the saints, but ross my boy, FFS...just pull ya finger out and try something different.

Highest points for team in 05, now in 07 we are at the bottom of that ladder. That WILL NEVER win you enough games of footy to do anything bar make up the numbers.

[SaintWodonga]

I don't think we have the foot skills to chip the ball around. Get the ball in to the foward line long & fast! I think our forward set up all year was good. I thought when TD had the forward line going, it was good as any.

[Leo.J]

Interesting to look back at old threads to see what we were all thinking.