How far can the saints go?

[saynta]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ ... 2c42562cb1




Off-season outlook: Can St Kilda make another jump up the ladder in 2021?

He’s been a prolific ball winner for St Kilda, but one game in 2020 may have revealed that Seb Ross is due for reinvention. FULL SAINTS ANALYSIS
Lauren Wood
@LaurenHeraldSun
December 30, 2020 - 8:58AM

Few clubs improved more than St Kilda in 2020.

And after another big off-season at the trade table, the Saints will be eyeing a deep September run in 2021.

But how far can this group go?

Lauren Wood looks at the off-season moves, the game plan, the coach, the best 22 and more in our off-season series.
LIST CHANGES

INS: Jack Higgins, Brad Crouch, Shaun McKernan, James Frawley, Matthew Allison (pick 26), Tom Highmore (pick 45)

OUTS: Nick Hind (traded), Ed Phillips (delisted), Matty Parker (delisted), Doulton Langlands (delisted), Ryan Abbott (delisted), Jack Bell (delisted), Jack Mayo (delisted), Logan Austin (delisted), Jonathon Marsh (delisted), Shane Savage (delisted), Nathan Brown (retired)

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Brett Ratten celebrates with Hunter Clark after St Kilda’s elimination final win. Picture: Michael Klein
Brett Ratten celebrates with Hunter Clark after St Kilda’s elimination final win. Picture: Michael Klein
COACH STATUS


Brett Ratten is much-loved at Moorabbin and rightly so after taking the team to its first finals series in more than a decade.

Contracted until the end of 2022, Ratten is under little pressure after reinvigorating the team in 2020.

In fact he can further enhance the model of the second-chance saloon by pushing the Saints further into the finals series.

His example could see more clubs willing to appoint a coach who has been axed by a rival team.
GAME PLAN

Speed thrills for the Saints. They actively sought more foot speed in the 2019 trade period, nabbing the likes of Bradley Hill, and while the former Hawk and Docker didn’t fire in the finals, it caught on.

The team likes to keep the Sherrin moving and applies pressure to go with it — shades of Richmond’s successful model of recent years.

They love to mark and play-on, but going forward must avoid cheap turnovers. They pay the price when opposition sides are allowed to mark the ball and given control.

Accuracy had for a long time been the shortcoming of the Saints, but they turned that stat around in 2020, returning the highest shot-at-goal accuracy. It all came down to the ease of the kick.

Under the guidance of forward coach and premiership Hawk Jarryd Roughead, the focus of the Saints became to generate shots closer to goal. It allowed the likes of Dan Butler, Max King and Tim Membrey to reap the rewards.

TRADE TABLE REPORT

It was another fruitful year with list boss James Gallagher — who only took on the role in 2019 — steering the ship like an old hand.

Supported by senior figures Simon Lethlean and Graeme Allan, Gallagher kept hold of a top-30 pick while also securing free agent pair Brad Crouch and Shaun McKernan.

The icing on the top was applied late when Jack Higgins made the shift from Punt Road on the final day of trade period. Higgins is the second small Tiger forward to join St Kilda, following Butler, and will add more forward pressure and speed.

Two big trade periods in the past two years mean the Saints have their focus set squarely on the now. A finals win this year showed that strategy had already began to bear fruit.
THEIR 2020 DRAFT HAUL

Matthew Allison (pick 26) is a 194cm athletic marking forward who could take time to develop before the Saints would consider playing him alongside Max King, while pick 45 Tom Highmore led the SANFL for intercept marks this year, so Saints fans will hope he can follow the path blazed by Cal Wilkie.

The Saints’ top picks of recent years are starting to bear fruit, with King, Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield all taking another big step in 2020.
Seb Ross has shown he has the ability to lock down opponents.

PLAYERS THEY CAN REINVENT

It will be interesting to see what happens with Seb Ross.

With the injection of Adelaide free agent Brad Crouch into the midfield, what of the vice-captain?

Maybe he will take a leaf out of Jarryn Geary’s 2020 playbook. Ross kept Brisbane star and Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale to zero clearances for the first time in five years during the season, so his defensive work is a serious asset at coach Ratten’s disposal. In that match he had just the 15 touches and a SuperCoach score of 73 (averaging 77.8 for the year) – well down on previous season outputs even when adjusted for the shorter games.

Maybe he could be used as a defensive forward.

Jade Gresham — whose 2020 was plagued by a serious back injury — has been open about his midfield ambitions and could push in there given the arrival of goalsneak Jack Higgins.

And what of Hill? Maybe it’s not exactly a reinvention rather than a reinvigoration that is needed because the former Hawk and Docker fell short of expectations for a player of his ilk. He did a lot of running this season, unfortunately, it was often without the ball.
READY TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP

If you’d said 18 months ago that Jack Steele would be one of the premier midfielders of the club — let alone the competition — you would have been shouted down. But he thrived and is hungry for more, potentially taking another step towards the captaincy.

Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield will only continue to develop, and expect Callum Wilkie to do the same.

Rowan Marshall has shown a rapid improvement in the past two years and if he continues on that trajectory, he can begin to stamp himself as one of the pre-eminent ruckman in the competition.
Jack Higgins during his first training session with the Saints. Picture: Getty Images
Jack Higgins during his first training session with the Saints. Picture: Getty Images
BEST 22 FOR NEXT SEASON

B: Jake Carlisle --- Dougal Howard --- Ben Paton

HB: Nick Coffield --- Callum Wilkie --- Hunter Clark

C: Bradley Hill --- Brad Crouch --- Dan Hannebery

HF: Dan Butler --- Tim Membrey --- Jade Gresham

F: Jack Billings --- Max King --- Josh Battle

R: Rowan Marshall --- Zak Jones --- Jack Steele

Int: Jack Sinclair --- Seb Ross --- Jack Higgins --- Jarryn Geary
CHAMPION DATA SAYS

Good: The Saints averaged 38 points from their forward half chains – ranked second.

Bad: The Saints leaked defensively at times across 2020, conceding a score from 42 per cent of their oppositions inside 50 entries – ranked 14th defensively.

FINISH THE LAST FIVE YEARS: 2016: 9th. 2017: 11th. 2018: 16th. 2019: 14th. 2020: 6th (semi-final)

TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $17

[skeptic]

I’d have Paddy in there ahead of either Sinclair or Geary

Interesting to see whose named on the bench

[Saintmike65]

No Ryder...Surely not, arguably THE most influential player on our list.
Long also a notable omission, Ratten loves him!!

[saynta]

I think Lauren must have forgotten Paddy was now a saint.

[Gershwin]

I think Lauren must have forgotten Paddy was now a saint.

On her twitter account she has admitted ‘with hindsight and fresh eyes‘ Ryder should have been in the best 22.

[Vortex]

All I saw was $17 for the flag, get on em now and get on em big.

[Impatient Sainter]

With the tough draw we have I'll be happy with a top 8 finish next year. I think we still will be are a couple of ELITE players short of being serious contenders.

Enter Josh Kelly 2022.
Enter Max King 2023.

[Gershwin]

With the tough draw we have I'll be happy with a top 8 finish next year. I think we still will be are a couple of ELITE players short of being serious contenders.

Enter Josh Kelly 2022.
Enter Max King 2023.

We know you mean Ben King.

[WellardSaint]

No Ryder...Surely not, arguably THE most influential player on our list.
Long also a notable omission, Ratten loves him!!

It's only her opinion about leaving Long out, she's thinking best case scenario.

But if Hannas gets a soft tissue injury and gets the old Hamill "2 weeks" prognosis,
Clark goes onto wing, replaced at HBF by Ben "Cruncher" Long

[WellardSaint]

Skunk is not a CHF, he's a marking forward target but #3 behind Winx, Ryder and Roma.
I have Roma at CHF due to his height, strength and mobility

[shanegrambeau]

Ratts has his favorites,

Long ..
May I ask you?
Do you think he got games because of ‘potential/development’ or because of ‘proven performance’?
If it’s potential, can he still justify that calling?

Ratts has his favs
Long, Kent

Gears will get a game at the beginning of the season, especially when Crouch is still suspended.
Sincs may have just those four (Crouchless) games to prove himself too.

Would t be surprised if they rest Ryder from interstate travel games...

It’s gonna be a rough first month IMO..

[asiu]

All I saw was $17 for the flag, get on em now and get on em big.

they were 18’s
now 17’s

which is .... attractive
but not get on em BIG attractive

thats the Saints you’d be pinning your fun coupons to

masters at pinching defeat from the jaws of victory
... like steady eddie meditating under the bohdi tree

what odds did you ‘invest’ in at ?

[asiu]

but

of course ... if you’re into it ... may as well avago ay

[st.byron]

No Ryder...Surely not, arguably THE most influential player on our list.
Long also a notable omission, Ratten loves him!!

Ryder and Long in for Sinclair and Geary for mine.

[Vortex]

All I saw was $17 for the flag, get on em now and get on em big.

they were 18’s
now 17’s

which is .... attractive
but not get on em BIG attractive

thats the Saints you’d be pinning your fun coupons to

masters at pinching defeat from the jaws of victory
... like steady eddie meditating under the bohdi tree

what odds did you ‘invest’ in at ?

I am still contemplating Gaz, would $1000 be appropriate?

I know realistically we aren't a geniune threat however as we are now entering the window, betting on the Saints is once again a viable fun activity.

How much would you be willing to lose on them in 2021?

[asiu]

as per my chrissy thread post

i’ve already done the
$500 to win $9000 thing

not a gambler by practice
but the son of an sp bookie ring participant

i’m just having the bet
for fun
‘n coz i can

chrissy present to self

someboys need an etype to compensate
i just need a Saints flag

way cheap

if we dont win it this year
i’ll double up next year

re : the $1000 big ones
would be a beautiful bet (imo)
given context ‘n possible reward

(but i’m stretching my betting dollar out over the 3 years inclusive)

the Sainters have momentum by the balls
Ratts aint letting that gift from the footy gods go

the Baby Saints could (actually) go All the Way
then there’s (gratefully) the following couple of years

hold this alignment
whilst growing
‘n we are going to be a serious force

re : won’t be getting those odds for too much longer
... true that.

make hay whilst the sun shines
cuddle up with the farmers daughter in it
if , you dare

a pitchfork in the bum
is a fairly sharp lesson i surmise

[asiu]

the more ‘appropriately impressive’ odds might be
found in the future grand finalists market

if there is such a thing

but caaaaarlton ‘n the puppies are gunna rise with us

AND
losing to either
is not an option.

so best we win it.

[asiu]

the puupies are the danger

carlton will underestimate us
... cool , ta

the doggies

will seriously wanna take us out
it’s in their dna

[Yorkeys]

At least three glaring weaknesses in Lauren's puff piece - clearly no independent research or industry insight; her sister Willow may have actually written in while waiting for a Covid test. The side nominated should get in the eight if it wins 50% of the close ones in a hard draw but can't win the premiership. However the side that will actually be chosen can. Keep watching developments Lauren/Willow).

Surprised our odds are not 10/1-15/1 ( make top 4, premiership odds = 25/10?; make the bottom of the eight = at least three times as difficult, don't make the eight 17/1 to wyot ?)

[asiu]

wuestion without notice



does ‘wyot’ mean

“EWOT stands for “Exercise with oxygen therapy.” Your brain and nervous system need fuel to not only to survive but to efficiently receive and transmit signals-their very purpose “

[saintsRrising]

YES I think we will be a better team in 2021
- No significant players lost. Savage was certainly good depth though.
- Crouch in particular should make us better.
- Higgins hopefully will.
- A number of young to youngish players who should all yet improve = King, Clark, Coffield, King, Paton, Long, Battle, Marshall as well as hopefully Bytel
- Highmore ready to go, but not sure he is an immediate best 22 and so with Frawley and McKernan added our depth is better despite Savage going.

Plus Ratts has had a full year now settle in

So yes I think we will be a better team in 2021.

However this does not in itself mean more wins or success in 2021 as there is a lot to suggest that the 6 teams who finished beneath us will all be better teams too. Then add on that we have the hardest fixture of all teams in 2021.

So we need to be a lot better team in 2021 to have a better year than 2020 IMO. We do have all the ingredients now though to be. Though yes would still have loved that one extra star mid, but we can do it without them if we can nail everything else and if say Gresh/Higgins can both be true and good rotating mids/small forwards.

[The Billings Method]

the puupies are the danger

carlton will underestimate us
... cool , ta

the doggies

will seriously wanna take us out
it’s in their dna

They're our bitches in big games.(pun intended)

[asiu]

yes

which is exactly why
they are the danger

they’ve been stewing on us for years

two prelims in a row
and last years makes it 3/2 our way

[shanegrambeau]

YES...

....6 teams who finished beneath us will all be better teams too....
..we have the hardest fixture of all teams in 2021....
...we need to be a lot better team in 2021 to have a better year than 2020 IMO. ....

Yes,
Yes,
And yes

I think our finish flattered us and we were barely top 9 team in second part of the season.

We lost games to North, Melbourne, Fremantle etc. but got Richmond when we were high and they were vulnerable...

Our back six, for which we are now so proud ranked 12th for leaking scores per D50 entry.
Our forward line still spotty and mid field might be - fingers crossed - a hamstring clinic. Fixture will be tough for sure and I can’t see us being better than 3-3 after 6. But I just get the feeling from then on, we will click.

[The Billings Method]

yes

which is exactly why
they are the danger

they’ve been stewing on us for years

two prelims in a row
and last years makes it 3/2 our way

The last three wins in finals were ours. 2009-10 prelims and 2020 elimination final. 3-0 in our last three clashes unless you want to go back to 1992 and the 60s.