Can we still make finals?
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- Saintsational Legend
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Can we still make finals?
We've just completed round 9 and we are 4 wins and 5 losses
There are 13 games to go. You need at least 12 wins to get into the finals and probably at least 13 with a bad percentage.
That means to win 12 games we have to win at least 8 more games and have only 5 more losses. With a minimum of 13 wins to get in (because of percentage) we need to win 9 more games with only 4 more losses.
Can it be done or is the math now just too hard?
There are 13 games to go. You need at least 12 wins to get into the finals and probably at least 13 with a bad percentage.
That means to win 12 games we have to win at least 8 more games and have only 5 more losses. With a minimum of 13 wins to get in (because of percentage) we need to win 9 more games with only 4 more losses.
Can it be done or is the math now just too hard?
As ex-president Peter Summers said:
“If we are going to be a contender, we may as well plan to win the bloody thing.”
St Kilda - At least we have a Crest!
“If we are going to be a contender, we may as well plan to win the bloody thing.”
St Kilda - At least we have a Crest!
- desertsaint
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Re: Can we still make finals?
our season was done and dusted many weeks back. we needed significant improvement this year to even get close given our double ups. we went backwards.
"The starting point of all achievement is desire. "
- shanegrambeau
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I voted yes. I still think a turn-around is possible after the bye. Don't ask me how anymore. (not that anyone ever did lol)
You're quite brilliant Shane, yeah..terrific!
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I had a good think. Based on guessing (and it's not like you are betting and it costs you anything) I voted Yes
I think after the effort and work rate I saw against Geelong, I reckon we are good enough. We could have had 7 goals on the board by quarter time.
I have faith in our coaches for 2022 and beyond and I'm sure we'll recruit some young talent and there will be good senior players that want to come and play under Ratts
I think after the effort and work rate I saw against Geelong, I reckon we are good enough. We could have had 7 goals on the board by quarter time.
I have faith in our coaches for 2022 and beyond and I'm sure we'll recruit some young talent and there will be good senior players that want to come and play under Ratts
- Wayne42
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I voted No.
The injuries we have had this season has exposed the clubs lack of depth.
The playing list has more holes than a block of Swiss cheese.
The ongoing list development is.......Ongoing.
The injuries we have had this season has exposed the clubs lack of depth.
The playing list has more holes than a block of Swiss cheese.
The ongoing list development is.......Ongoing.
The Saints are under review, will it make any difference to the underachievers ?
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Its not up to us anymore. Several teams above have to lose consistently. That would mean us getting unusual luck with results. Saints hoping for luck is like, well you pick the analogy of impossible.
Plus we are not good enough, forward craft is very poor, one big mobile defender short. Not sure what our forwards coach philosophy is other than look for Max, which is self defeating as at the moment he can't handle the spotlight, fluffs lines.
Plus we are not good enough, forward craft is very poor, one big mobile defender short. Not sure what our forwards coach philosophy is other than look for Max, which is self defeating as at the moment he can't handle the spotlight, fluffs lines.
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Re: Can we still make finals?
To factor in the loss of Gresham, Jones, Marshall, Paton, Geary, Carlisle and the continued injuries to Hanneberry means that there are too many quality players unavailable for selection. We just don't have the depth to cover these injured players, nor do I suspect many other clubs would be capable of filling gaps of this magnitude.
That's how it will go down for 2021. A clean out at years end, some fresh new faces, possibly an early pick 4 or 5 will give a much needed boost to the team list. That's football
That's how it will go down for 2021. A clean out at years end, some fresh new faces, possibly an early pick 4 or 5 will give a much needed boost to the team list. That's football
- SaintPav
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I've just about given up this year, but IF we play with the same intensity that we did on Friday, we will be a chance in most games. If we can be 7 6 after round 13, get Marshall back after the bye, we are a sneaky chance.
We have a difficult draw though compared to Brisbane which is just ridiculous.
My thinking is, go the mini rebuild and reset for 2022/23 with lower draft picks, free agency and recruiting and a better draw.
We have a difficult draw though compared to Brisbane which is just ridiculous.
My thinking is, go the mini rebuild and reset for 2022/23 with lower draft picks, free agency and recruiting and a better draw.
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Re: Can we still make finals?
There's a huge gap between our best and worse.
The only players who get the job done, are Steele and Crouch (Brad had 28 touches n 9 tackles vs Cats)
The others might 'try their hardest' and 'are hurting too' but raw numbers say they're not doing their job.
Hell, even Skunk goes missing in large patches.
All the missing players have hurt the squad.
The only players who get the job done, are Steele and Crouch (Brad had 28 touches n 9 tackles vs Cats)
The others might 'try their hardest' and 'are hurting too' but raw numbers say they're not doing their job.
Hell, even Skunk goes missing in large patches.
All the missing players have hurt the squad.
2020 was an aberration, when we travelled twice to Adelaide and won both, beat Tigers early, beat our bogey Swans. 2021 we've returned to our old ways. Damn
- shanegrambeau
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I see us beating West Coast, Freo, GWS, possibly Brisbane, possibly Geelong and Sydney post bye if the fixture went that way...but I don’t see them loosing consistently. For a slump, I’d pin my hopes on Freo, GWS, As the best chance...but maybe Geelong will get exposed.. we showed em all how to do it!Yorkeys wrote: ↑Mon 17 May 2021 9:23am Its not up to us anymore. Several teams above have to lose consistently. That would mean us getting unusual luck with results. Saints hoping for luck is like, well you pick the analogy of impossible.
Plus we are not good enough, forward craft is very poor, one big mobile defender short. Not sure what our forwards coach philosophy is other than look for Max, which is self defeating as at the moment he can't handle the spotlight, fluffs lines.
Slim pickings.
You're quite brilliant Shane, yeah..terrific!
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Re: Can we still make finals?
It is still possible.
Although I believe i may just book holidays for the second week of the finals as I dont believe we really deserve to be there or have the current team to make much impact.
Saints motto applies "there is always next year"
Although I believe i may just book holidays for the second week of the finals as I dont believe we really deserve to be there or have the current team to make much impact.
Saints motto applies "there is always next year"
- Life Long Saint
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Hard to see us making it.
The big loss to Essendon was devastating. Not only for missing out on the easy four points but for the margin.
Lacklustre performances against Port and Richmond added to the poor percentage.
Our low percentage is equivalent to another game we have to make up.
Can't see us beating the Bulldogs, Geelong, WCE, Brisbane, or Sydney (away).
We have 50/50 games against Sydney (home), Collingwood, Port (home), and Carlton.
We must win the games against North, Adelaide, and Fremantle.
We have four wins from nine games.
We will need 13 to be any chance with our percentage. That's nine more wins from thirteen games.
We must win all the 50/50 games and ideally win one of the tough games.
The big loss to Essendon was devastating. Not only for missing out on the easy four points but for the margin.
Lacklustre performances against Port and Richmond added to the poor percentage.
Our low percentage is equivalent to another game we have to make up.
Can't see us beating the Bulldogs, Geelong, WCE, Brisbane, or Sydney (away).
We have 50/50 games against Sydney (home), Collingwood, Port (home), and Carlton.
We must win the games against North, Adelaide, and Fremantle.
We have four wins from nine games.
We will need 13 to be any chance with our percentage. That's nine more wins from thirteen games.
We must win all the 50/50 games and ideally win one of the tough games.
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Draw too tough and percentage hurts :
WC, Geelong, Brisbane away - fortress type venues Loss 4-8
North, Freo , Adelaide, Coll , Carlton wins 9-8
Maths then says must win of Richmond ( MCG), WB, Port (h) , Sydney (twice) or if lucky 3 or 4
Not going to happen unfortunately .
MY guess 10-12 finish 10th
WC, Geelong, Brisbane away - fortress type venues Loss 4-8
North, Freo , Adelaide, Coll , Carlton wins 9-8
Maths then says must win of Richmond ( MCG), WB, Port (h) , Sydney (twice) or if lucky 3 or 4
Not going to happen unfortunately .
MY guess 10-12 finish 10th
- Sanctorum
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Come on....it's typical St Kilda supporters negativism to say this early that the team can't make finals. Their best, which they demonstrated emphatically on Friday night against the "in red-hot form" Cats was outstanding, and more than enough to beat even Melbourne and Western Bulldogs. Take note that even Chris Scott admitted after the game that St Kilda were by far the best team on the night.
I'd bring Carlisle in for Marshall to share ruck duties with Paddy rather than McKernan as I believe Jake will be bigger and better resting forward or back, has very good hands.
I believe Ratten now has the team clearly focussed on immense pressure and swift ball movement and I doubt that the forwards will be so sloppy again in front of goals.
Time to be a True Believer!!
I'd bring Carlisle in for Marshall to share ruck duties with Paddy rather than McKernan as I believe Jake will be bigger and better resting forward or back, has very good hands.
I believe Ratten now has the team clearly focussed on immense pressure and swift ball movement and I doubt that the forwards will be so sloppy again in front of goals.
Time to be a True Believer!!
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Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life out of nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops.
My luck is like a bald guy who just won a comb.
Anon
- ace
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Can we start next year now or restart this year from scratch with a full team ?
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- Impatient Sainter
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Will struggle to make it, especially when you look at how the top 8 is unfolding and the talent we are up against.
A clearcut lack of legitimate elite talent is whats holding us back. We have a cast of B+ players.
A clearcut lack of legitimate elite talent is whats holding us back. We have a cast of B+ players.
- shanegrambeau
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Are we irrational or do we rationalise? ..
But is Carlisle officially injured or just in the dog house again?
You're quite brilliant Shane, yeah..terrific!
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Re: Can we still make finals?
I voted no poor start ,injuries to key players tough draw at the back end & inability to convert chances plus poor percentage still possible but would take something special IMO
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- Winmar7
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Re: Can we still make finals?
13 games remaining...
Should win - Nth, Syd (H), Adel, Coll, Carl, Freo and that will give us 10 wins
Won't win - WB, Rich, Bris, WCE & Geel (all away)
So we need to beat Port in Melbourne and Sydney away, then get out the calculator and hope we sneak into 8th spot
Finals looking unlikely, but would so love to be proven wrong!
Should win - Nth, Syd (H), Adel, Coll, Carl, Freo and that will give us 10 wins
Won't win - WB, Rich, Bris, WCE & Geel (all away)
So we need to beat Port in Melbourne and Sydney away, then get out the calculator and hope we sneak into 8th spot
Finals looking unlikely, but would so love to be proven wrong!
- saintsRrising
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Re: Can we still make finals?
Can we make finals still is a different question, than will we make finals still.
Roma and Paddy are I think clearly our two most important players at present.
Paddy due to his ruck craft.
But with Marshall it is not just his talent around the ground, it is that he has presence and lifts those around him. When Roma is on son the whole team lifts. Paddy does this too, but Roma moreso. Roma makes team mates walk taller.
In 2019 when he came back into the team. He "arrived", but not only that when he "arrived" we started to look competitive again.
Roma leaving the field against the Cats was when the game turned. Yes losing Crough too for a while did not help.
So yes we can make the finals. Roma if he misses many more games this season may mean that we will not make the finals.
Roma and Paddy are I think clearly our two most important players at present.
Paddy due to his ruck craft.
But with Marshall it is not just his talent around the ground, it is that he has presence and lifts those around him. When Roma is on son the whole team lifts. Paddy does this too, but Roma moreso. Roma makes team mates walk taller.
In 2019 when he came back into the team. He "arrived", but not only that when he "arrived" we started to look competitive again.
Roma leaving the field against the Cats was when the game turned. Yes losing Crough too for a while did not help.
So yes we can make the finals. Roma if he misses many more games this season may mean that we will not make the finals.
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