For the betting men amongst us...

[SaintSimmo]

For those on here that don't mind a punt check out this site http://www.bettingblokes.com, run by yours truly.
I have devised a AFL betting system over the past year that has a 87% win rate, plus other free sport tips.
I know this probably shouldn't be in this part of the forum however, one of the selections this week is St.Kilda to win
If you know anyone that might be interested in the site please tell them about it, it just went live this morning!
If you have any questions please PM me, looking to help fellow Sainters out!

[WellardSaint]

87%- impossible. I think you're being funny, it's 13% away from 100, is that some sort of cleverness on your part?

[Cairnsman]

87%- impossible. I think you're being funny, it's 13% away from 100, is that some sort of cleverness on your part?

I just checked using a calculator and 13 away from 100 is 87 so it looks like he is onto something.

[SaintSimmo]

87% win rate since 2007, no bullsh**!!
This season there has been 15 wins and just 1 loss, they are straight win bets (and not just on easy games like collingwood to beat gws)
This system picked Richmond to beat Hawthorn in Round 9.
There are 2 picks this weekend, one tonight and one tomorrow (which i already said is St.Kilda)

[kosifantutti]

I have an 88% success rate. Started the year with $100 and now I have $88.

[savatage]

Cool can I borrow $50??

[SaintSimmo]

I have an 88% success rate. Started the year with $100 and now I have $88.

hahahaha nice one, if you take a look at the site (for anyone seriously interested) last year if you bet $100 on each of the selections you would have finished the year with $1,118 (thats not a typo)

[SaintSimmo]

Cool can I borrow $50??

Haha sorry savatage, we aren't a bank

[savatage]

Come on dude...if you're doing so well - you should have a few bucks to spare??

[jays]

Good luck on your betting site

[Devilhead]

What's a gurantee??

Might need to change it to guarantee

Good luck with your site

[WellardSaint]

Who is up at 4am surfing the net?

[8856brother]

What's a gurantee??

Might need to change it to guarantee

Good luck with your site

Spelling. Seriously, why do people bother. Do you feel better now?

[bergholt]

Spelling. Seriously, why do people bother. Do you feel better now?

to be fair, if simmo wants people to chuck him money on a wing and a prayer then spelling correctly is the least he'll need to do for credibility.

[SaintSimmo]

Thanks for pointing that out Devilhead, it's been fixed now Bit embarrassing having a spelling mistake on the home page (in bold too)

[Devilhead]

What's a gurantee??

Might need to change it to guarantee

Good luck with your site

Spelling. Seriously, why do people bother. Do you feel better now?

Hay jist triing to halp the min out with he's wubsight

Mastikes on hom pajis lok averaj wen yu r trien tu sul a product

Cheers Simmo

[linmarnic]

87% win rate since 2007, no bullsh**!!
This season there has been 15 wins and just 1 loss, they are straight win bets (and not just on easy games like collingwood to beat gws)
This system picked Richmond to beat Hawthorn in Round 9.
If you dont believe me check out the website and subscribe to the $20 trial for the rest of the season.
There are 2 picks this weekend, one tonight and one tomorrow (which i already said is St.Kilda)

SaintSimmo, did the system pick Carlton?

[slider]

Whats your profit on turnover? thats all that matters..

[SaintSimmo]

Whats your profit on turnover? thats all that matters..

I assume by profit on turnover you mean something like ROI (return on investment) which is calculated by Gross Profit/Total Risked * 100
If you were to bet $100 on each selection this year (going into this round) it would be 745/1,600 * 100 = 47% ROI
In 2011, the ROI for the entire season was 66%.
Which is considered a very good ROI, better than what you would get at the banks and in a lot of shares.

[Dave McNamara]

Whats your profit on turnover? thats all that matters..

I assume by profit on turnover you mean something like ROI (return on investment) which is calculated by Gross Profit/Total Risked * 100
If you were to bet $100 on each selection this year (going into this round) it would be 745/1,600 * 100 = 47% ROI
In 2011, the ROI for the entire season was 66%.
Which is considered a very good ROI, better than what you would get at the banks and in a lot of shares.

Hi Simmo, so for the 17 rounds before last weekend, your (clearly highly focused) system came up with 16 picks, or ~1 per round..., is my maths correct?

Both your strike and return on investment rates are very good! I'd love a share portfolio doing that... hey, I'd love a share portfolio... That prompts the question, with a success rate like that, why share your tips? Generous..., dont like the betting agencies...?

[SaintSimmo]

Whats your profit on turnover? thats all that matters..

I assume by profit on turnover you mean something like ROI (return on investment) which is calculated by Gross Profit/Total Risked * 100
If you were to bet $100 on each selection this year (going into this round) it would be 745/1,600 * 100 = 47% ROI
In 2011, the ROI for the entire season was 66%.
Which is considered a very good ROI, better than what you would get at the banks and in a lot of shares.

Hi Simmo, so for the 17 rounds before last weekend, your (clearly highly focused) system came up with 16 picks, or ~1 per round..., is my maths correct?

Both your strike and return on investment rates are very good! I'd love a share portfolio doing that... hey, I'd love a share portfolio... That prompts the question, with a success rate like that, why share your tips? Generous..., dont like the betting agencies...?

Yes you are correct Dave, 16 selections for the 17 rounds, just for a bit of an update it is now 16 wins 2 losses (with saints winning and richmond losing last round ), so sadly the ROI has dropped a little....for now

I will be completely honest with you, the reason I am sharing the tips is because I am still studying at university (in my second year), and only working a part time job, so I actually have little money to bet on these tips myself.

The system was only discovered at the beginning of this season and has been researched back to 2007 and then "paper trialed" this year. So I actually haven't been able to reap the rewards (in terms of cash) for thinking up this system.

Also, If you are interested we are actually testing an expansion of the system that sees the picks nearly doubled for the season, and is likely to be submitted on the website next season if the research for the rest of the season goes to plan, we have researched the results for this as well, being 28-5 this year and 26-4 last year.

[slider]

Lets not confuse gambling with investment... profit on turnover is what it is called in punting, so in my case for every $100 i punted on the ponies from the start of last spring carnival to the end of Autumn my return was $145 so thats a 45% POT for that racing season for every $100 i gambled (i dont punt in winter). The season before it was for every $100 i put on the punt i returned $116, thats 16% POT. I have been doing this nicely for the last 25yrs with varying POT as low as 2% but a profit just the same, i have had 3 yrs that showed a red return 2 of those very minor and 1 was a lot of near misses caused my bank to dwindle, but i also have a betting strategy that it would take alot of bets 100's without a win to see me back into my own money. I bet on maybe 1 race in 1 city (you cant win them all) mostly on a weekend unless i can find an open handicap or welter worth the effort midweek and believe me i put in many hours of form study. I am not going say how much i gamble over a season but lets say i have been using the bookies money for along time.

I personally dont believe that any "system" is sustainable over a long period of time, only astute study and knowledge of your chosen betting market and solid nerves, not letting coat pullers change your mind and the ability to ride out slumps over long periods of time, can show the true value of betting in any market.

Best of luck with your system.

[SaintSimmo]

great to hear about you success on the races slider! You don't hear of too many people who have consistent success on the races.

Please correct me if i am wrong but what is the difference between ROI and POT?
This is my calculation for my ROI last year...

2011 ROI
Profit = $1,118
Total Amount Bet = $1,700 (17 x $100 bets)
ROI = (1,118/1,700) * 100 = 66%

Just a side note, this system is based mostly on study and knowledge of key stats of teams over the season, so it is updated with every round making it sustainable over many seasons.

[slider]

65.76470588235294% profit but whos counting haha

ROI is $1700 out ROI $2818

POT is $1700 out POT $1118

A small thing but in the world of the punt its the way it is. Its like saying i went to the races, bet $1700 and won $2818 when in reality you won $1118 which is the profit on your turn over.

Anyway have fun

[SaintSimmo]

65.76470588235294% profit but whos counting haha

ROI is $1700 out ROI $2818

POT is $1700 out POT $1118

A small thing but in the world of the punt its the way it is. Its like saying i went to the races, bet $1700 and won $2818 when in reality you won $1118 which is the profit on your turn over.

Anyway have fun

I think you may find ROI and POT are the same thing, so my calculation is correct.

http://statisticalsportsbetting.com/How ... %20ROI.htm