A theory on Longer

[lewdogs]

We seem to be doing very well out of trading ruck men lately. Got fantastic value for both Macca and Stanley.

Now don't get me wrong, I am as rapt as anyone to see Billy coming on. But we have a real surplus of good rucks, and especially if Holmes comes through. From what I've seen of Holmes, he could potentially be the best tap ruck man in the AFL.

So the theory is this… could Billy be possible trade bait? Maybe netting us an elite mid? What would you take for Billy?

If he continues to develop as he is, his value will be huge.

[saynta]

No. He will be in our team when we win back to backs.

[lewdogs]

No. He will be in our team when we win back to backs.

Would be rapt with that regardless

[saynta]

No. He will be in our team when we win back to backs.

Would be rapt with that regardless

[plugger66]

We seem to be doing very well out of trading ruck men lately. Got fantastic value for both Macca and Stanley.

Now don't get me wrong, I am as rapt as anyone to see Billy coming on. But we have a real surplus of good rucks, and especially if Holmes comes through. From what I've seen of Holmes, he could potentially be the best tap ruck man in the AFL.

So the theory is this… could Billy be possible trade bait? Maybe netting us an elite mid? What would you take for Billy?

If he continues to develop as he is, his value will be huge.

But if his value is huge wouldn't that mean he is a very good player. I agree we have too many ruckmen and one will have to go but I would trade the worst of them even if it means a lesser pick.

[St Chris]

Agree with the sentiment from other posters....

If the guy was 30, then sure, throw it around. But he turns 22 next week, he is gonna be right in the thick of it once we hit our straps and push for honours. And if he continues his steady upward trend, by the time he's 27 I'd much rather have him with us than against us.

I think there is probably one too many No. 1 ruckman with him and Hickey, but as long as they are both happy to fight for senior games, we can only benefit from them both improving.

[FQF]

You can't underestimate the value of a truly dominant ruckman. Billy is slowly but surely improving and starting to show why he was a first round draft pick.

I believe Hickey will similarly get there.

Not sure what that means for Holmes and Pierce but we have plenty of time to figure that out.

[mad saint guy]

I have another theory: You don't trade 21 year old ruckmen who average 10.6 disposals (8.8 contested), 2.4 marks (1.2 contested), 1.8 tackles, 3 clearances and 35.2 hitouts per game. You sign them to long term contracts as they will be elite for a very long time.

[remboy]

No. He will be in our team when we win back to backs.

That will certainly put his trade value up

[st.byron]

I have another theory: You don't trade 21 year old ruckmen who average 10.6 disposals (8.8 contested), 2.4 marks (1.2 contested), 1.8 tackles, 3 clearances and 35.2 hitouts per game. You sign them to long term contracts as they will be elite for a very long time.

Completely agree. Understand the OP is hypothetical, but crazy to give any serious consideration to this. Billy compares favourably statistically to Cox at the same stage of his career. I know stats aren't the whole picture, but he's a potential elite ruckman. And a big risk to assume that Holmes or Pierce are going to step up.

[bigcarl]

Keep Longer. Going to be one of the league's best ruckmen and is tough and hard. You can see already how he makes our guys walk taller.

Also keep Hickey, who will be an elite ruck-forward. With the new interchange cap there will be room for both.

Don't know where this leaves Holmes, who, as I understand it, is very promising.

Ruckmen being ruckmen, he will get a go when Longer or Hickey are inevitably injured. As for Pierce, he's got some talent in front of him. He'll have to really stand out to get a look in

[gringo]

Was wondering if Longer would take a couple of years but he's flying. I think he's third in hit outs across the league. Anyway, the Hawks had a few good ruck men that could never get on the park after they knocked off Geelong in the GF. Geelong has struggled for ruck man since losing Ottens. Most good clubs need 2 high grade ruck men in case of injury. If we end up with 4 we can think about trading one out.

[Trev from the Bush]

Billy is a way better tap ruckman at this stage of his career than Benny Mac was or will probably ever be.

If you want your midfield to improve they must first get used to being fed a steady diet of T W Sherrins down their throat. Our boys are slowly coming to like their diet!

[Bunk_Moreland]

Geez wouldnt want to trade billy

[gringo]

Billy is a way better tap ruckman at this stage of his career than Benny Mac was or will probably ever be.

If you want your midfield to improve they must first get used to being fed a steady diet of T W Sherrins down their throat. Our boys are slowly coming to like their diet!

Agree, BM was a very poor tap ruck man but great around the ground for his size. We didn't use him well and he was like an over ballasted QEII trying to reverse park by the end of his time with us. The Hawks seem to like to structure around the hulks but having Gunston, Bruest and co under them makes sense.

Billy is a gun of a guy too. He is a loveable big guy who loves getting out chatting with the kids and has a great happy personality.

[plugger66]

Was wondering if Longer would take a couple of years but he's flying. I think he's third in hit outs across the league. Anyway, the Hawks had a few good ruck men that could never get on the park after they knocked off Geelong in the GF. Geelong has struggled for ruck man since losing Ottens. Most good clubs need 2 high grade ruck men in case of injury. If we end up with 4 we can think about trading one out.

Who are the good clubs that have 2 genunine ruckmen? Hawks is one. Struggling for a second club.

[WinnersOnly]

Longer is just starting to find his feet he will be dominating in a year or 2 and you think we shoild trade him?,

[Richter]

Everyone is presuming that the sub rule will be scrapped next year. Which will mean a return to the days of 4 on the interchange bench. That will mean that some clubs will play two Rickman - like we used to do with Gardiner and King rotating. So that might mean that Longer and Hickey will get more games together.

At this stage we have two AFL quality ducks - Holmes and Pierce might well have some potential but they are entirely unproven at the highest level for the time being. If either of them develop further, particularly Pierce, then sure we may look at trading one of Pierce and Hickey. At this stage Longer is the clear number 1 ruckman though who won't be traded IMO.

[st.byron]

Everyone is presuming that the sub rule will be scrapped next year. Which will mean a return to the days of 4 on the interchange bench. That will mean that some clubs will play two Rickman - like we used to do with Gardiner and King rotating. So that might mean that Longer and Hickey will get more games together.

At this stage we have two AFL quality ducks - Holmes and Pierce might well have some potential but they are entirely unproven at the highest level for the time being. If either of them develop further, particularly Pierce, then sure we may look at trading one of Pierce and Hickey. At this stage Longer is the clear number 1 ruckman though who won't be traded IMO.

Some quality mis-spelling in there Richter. Two Rickmans. "By Grabthar's hammer, you shall be avenged". Obtuse. Oh well it amuseth me.

[FQF]

Gosh Hickey's injury troubles last year had a silver lining. Longer's baptism of fire has fast tracked his development significantly. If Hickey was fit last year, Longer would be languishing away in the VFL sharing ruck duties with Holmes and Pierce.

[Goose is king]

I'm not sure why people think we have too many good ruckmen.
Pierce and Holmes may never play AFL but we need the best of the two as back up as injuries happen.
I really rate Hickey and Longer and know they will make it work in the same team because they will both be very good.

[Sainternist]

Trading Stanley was one of the most ballsy things the club has done in years. I am still applauding Richo and co for that very shrewd piece of work. Hoping for more of this to come in the next trade period.

[RW&B]

Trading Stanley was one of the most ballsy things the club has done in years. I am still applauding Richo and co for that very shrewd piece of work. Hoping for more of this to come in the next trade period.

Agree. When I first heard of the trade I thought it was fairly even and who we got with the pick was really important as would be the form of Bruce and Longer. Well we landed Goddard and Bruce and Longer have both improved beyond probably everyone's expectations. As you say, somewhat ballsy but appears will pay huge dividends.

[Sainternist]

Trading Stanley was one of the most ballsy things the club has done in years. I am still applauding Richo and co for that very shrewd piece of work. Hoping for more of this to come in the next trade period.

Agree. When I first heard of the trade I thought it was fairly even and who we got with the pick was really important as would be the form of Bruce and Longer. Well we landed Goddard and Bruce and Longer have both improved beyond probably everyone's expectations. As you say, somewhat ballsy but appears will pay huge dividends.

Glad you agree. There was a lot of moaning and groaning over it after it first happened. I was pleasantly surprised we actually got such a high pick in return for Stanley. I assumed his market value was pretty low at the time. Still early days, but it sure looks like we did pretty well from it.

[Winmar]

I thought it was 50/50 at the time, but once we got Goddard I didn't look back. Given we have other ruckmen (albeit none with quite the same forward potential) and really needed to draft a key backman, it seems at this stage to have worked out really well.