1996, 2003, 2008, 2016?

[White Winmar]

I know for some the sky is falling after Saturday night. It's hard not to be fatalistic when you support the Saints. I would say in defense of the team that we struck a red hot side, playing at its favourite venue and sky high in confidence. They had the ball 126 times more than we did. 126! Normally, that would convert into a 100 points + whacking, and although Saturday night's margin was bad enough, it could've been so much worse. The fact was we were under siege all night. They swamped us early and kept up the pressure all night. Frankly, they should've been 30+ points up at quarter time and out of sight. That they weren't was a testament to the way our side hung in there. Unfortunately, we failed to score on the counter, something I think Richo's plan relies on, but we won't be the last to be towelled up by the dogs under the roof and on a fast track at Etihad. It will be interesting to see how they go on cold, windy days at the 'G in July against a physically stronger opposition, and like Guinness, I doubt the Bulldogs travel well, either, but that's another story.

I see a lot of promise, and I'm not just "blue skying" here. Remember 1996? A lot of young draftees, second-hand players and a few older champions and we won the night flag when that still meant something. How did we start that year? Three straight losses, including a shocker at Princes Park against the Dees. We rallied to finish the year off well. You all know what happened the following year! Speaking of which, weren't we 1-4 in 1997, with calls for Stan to be sacked? Remember the "Joe Gutnick" affair, where he openly said on air that Balme needed to go? That game was labelled as the battle for coaching survival. We flogged them, and Balme was sacked. We led the GF at half time that year if I recall correctly.

Fast forward to 2003. We were 6-10, and many were questioning whether we'd ever improve under GT. We then went on to become the only side in AFL/VFL history to win four consecutive games by more than 60 points. That record still stands. It was a launching pad for 2004 and beyond. After Ross Lyon took over in 2007, many thought we were finished, including me. The GT years had been wasted. Lyon didn't seem to have the side on song at all. Not only weren't we winning as much, but we were also playing a horrid style of football, which was unwatchable some weeks. We missed the finals and started 2008 terribly as well. The vultures were circling. There were even calls to bring back GT!

Roo, fortunately, gave Lyon his backing, Dal and Milney were dropped, and we subsequently rallied to make the preliminary final, beaten by the eventual premiers. Nineteen straight wins at the start of 2009 followed. How we didn't win the flag that year is a bigger mystery than the pyramids, Bermuda Triangle, and Bruce Jenner's sexuality all rolled into one. So on to this year. We have a few ageing guns, a lot of "middle of the road" types, who let's face it, aren't that good, and won't be part of a serious challenge, and a bunch of highly promising youngsters who will. The nightmare recruiting years appear to be over and over the past three years, at least, we seem to have gotten it right. Don't forget Carlisle waits in the wings, an elite level player who will be fresh and ready to go next year. Don't forget we have room in the salary cap for an elite mid, or maybe even two, come trade time. My sources at the club tell me that we will have a crack at luring one, if not more, of the Essendon twelve, as they will cost nothing in trade terms as uncontracted free agents. Throw in an O'meara, or similar and the landscape changes very quickly. A bit like 1996, 2003, 2008 ...........

[barneyboyz]

I know for some the sky is falling after Saturday night. It's hard not to be fatalistic when you support the Saints. I would say in defense of the team that we struck a red hot side, playing at its favourite venue and sky high in confidence. They had the ball 126 times more than we did. 126! Normally, that would convert into a 100 points + whacking, and although Saturday night's margin was bad enough, it could've been so much worse. The fact was we were under siege all night. They swamped us early and kept up the pressure all night. Frankly, they should've been 30+ points up at quarter time and out of sight. That they weren't was a testament to the way our side hung in there. Unfortunately, we failed to score on the counter, something I think Richo's plan relies on, but we won't be the last to be towelled up by the dogs under the roof and on a fast track at Etihad. It will be interesting to see how they go on cold, windy days at the 'G in July against a physically stronger opposition, and like Guinness, I doubt the Bulldogs travel well, either, but that's another story.

I see a lot of promise, and I'm not just "blue skying" here. Remember 1996? A lot of young draftees, second-hand players and a few older champions and we won the night flag when that still meant something. How did we start that year? Three straight losses, including a shocker at Princes Park against the Dees. We rallied to finish the year off well. You all know what happened the following year! Speaking of which, weren't we 1-4 in 1997, with calls for Stan to be sacked? Remember the "Joe Gutnick" affair, where he openly said on air that Balme needed to go? That game was labelled as the battle for coaching survival. We flogged them, and Balme was sacked. We led the GF at half time that year if I recall correctly.

Fast forward to 2003. We were 6-10, and many were questioning whether we'd ever improve under GT. We then went on to become the only side in AFL/VFL history to win four consecutive games by more than 60 points. That record still stands. It was a launching pad for 2004 and beyond. After Ross Lyon took over in 2007, many thought we were finished, including me. The GT years had been wasted. Lyon didn't seem to have the side on song at all. Not only weren't we winning as much, but we were also playing a horrid style of football, which was unwatchable some weeks. We missed the finals and started 2008 terribly as well. The vultures were circling. There were even calls to bring back GT!

Roo, fortunately, gave Lyon his backing, Dal and Milney were dropped, and we subsequently rallied to make the preliminary final, beaten by the eventual premiers. Nineteen straight wins at the start of 2009 followed. How we didn't win the flag that year is a bigger mystery than the pyramids, Bermuda Triangle, and Bruce Jenner's sexuality all rolled into one. So on to this year. We have a few ageing guns, a lot of "middle of the road" types, who let's face it, aren't that good, and won't be part of a serious challenge, and a bunch of highly promising youngsters who will. The nightmare recruiting years appear to be over and over the past three years, at least, we seem to have gotten it right. Don't forget Carlisle waits in the wings, an elite level player who will be fresh and ready to go next year. Don't forget we have room in the salary cap for an elite mid, or maybe even two, come trade time. My sources at the club tell me that we will have a crack at luring one, if not more, of the Essendon twelve, as they will cost nothing in trade terms as uncontracted free agents. Throw in an O'meara, or similar and the landscape changes very quickly. A bit like 1996, 2003, 2008 ...........

A very very god read and perspective, thankyou

[Con Gorozidis]

In 2006 we won 14 games and finished with a % of 118. That is a pretty good year.

In 2014 we finished bottom with a % of 61.

So no. We cant compare 2016 with 2008. Not even close.

Im not even going to bother with the other years because I am sure it will be a similar story.

We are starting much much lower this time around with many more unproven players.

[saintspremiers]

Con is right. We need 2 brilliant FA players plus Carlisle, McCartin, Billings and our top pick at the end of this year to all be A grade and it may become a fair comparison.

Lots of ifs.

[perfectionist]

1982 (if we are lucky).

[White Winmar]

In 2006 we won 14 games and finished with a % of 118. That is a pretty good year.

In 2014, we finished bottom with a % of 61.

So no. We cant compare 2016 with 2008. Not even close.

Im not even going to bother with the other years because I am sure it will be a similar story.

We are starting much lower this time around with many more unproven players.

Well, we finished 9th in 2007, so we were already trending downwards. We were 2 and 7 in 2008. Heading towards dead last. The comparison
I made, which you've missed, is that we've started poorly, even in years where we ended up doing quite well. Does that clarify my point a bit? We can compare 2008 and 20016, in that we started both years badly. The other common ground is that everyone was writing us off, with many in 2008 saying we needed a complete rebuild. One year later, we're a couple of straight kicks from a perfect season. 1995, seven wins, bad start. 1996, eleven wins. Bad start. 1997, 15 wins, bad start. Bad starts in all of those years.

Rushing to predictions of doom is what some do best. I still think we'll win 9-10 this year. If we are 2-6 after eight rounds I'll be satisfied, as that will be reflective of a very tough draw. Very similar to 2008, in fact slightly better. After that the draw "flattens" out a bit and should see us win quite a few. But let's go the doom and gloom predictions, based on a sample of less than 10% of the whole, with the two games we have played being against a good side playing in its fortress and the hottest team in the competition playing in its as well. Many more unproven players? 1996-7 we had so many unproven youngsters, a plethora of plodders and a handful of champs. Sound familiar? Your argument is based on pessimism, not convincing evidence. Henny Penny, the sky is always falling, isn't it?

[Con Gorozidis]

In 2006 we won 14 games and finished with a % of 118. That is a pretty good year.

In 2014, we finished bottom with a % of 61.

So no. We cant compare 2016 with 2008. Not even close.

Im not even going to bother with the other years because I am sure it will be a similar story.

We are starting much lower this time around with many more unproven players.

Well, we finished 9th in 2007, so we were already trending downwards. We were 2 and 7 in 2008. Heading towards dead last. The comparison
I made, which you've missed, is that we've started poorly, even in years where we ended up doing quite well. Does that clarify my point a bit? We can compare 2008 and 20016, in that we started both years badly. The other common ground is that everyone was writing us off, with many in 2008 saying we needed a complete rebuild. One year later, we're a couple of straight kicks from a perfect season. 1995, seven wins, bad start. 1996, eleven wins. Bad start. 1997, 15 wins, bad start. Bad starts in all of those years.

Rushing to predictions of doom is what some do best. I still think we'll win 9-10 this year. If we are 2-6 after eight rounds I'll be satisfied, as that will be reflective of a very tough draw. Very similar to 2008, in fact slightly better. After that the draw "flattens" out a bit and should see us win quite a few. But let's go the doom and gloom predictions, based on a sample of less than 10% of the whole, with the two games we have played being against a good side playing in its fortress and the hottest team in the competition playing in its as well. Many more unproven players? 1996-7 we had so many unproven youngsters, a plethora of plodders and a handful of champs. Sound familiar? Your argument is based on pessimism, not convincing evidence. Henny Penny, the sky is always falling, isn't it?

I didn't 'miss' your point I ignored it because it was so obviously wrong. Your 'point' was that we had a poor start in 08 and a poor start in 16 so ipso facto they are the same. I mean it doesnt even warrant analysis - there is zero cause and effect there.

I'll spell it out for you:

06/07 combined = 25 wins - % of 107.
14/15 combined = 10 wins - % of 69%

Now these two sets of numbers are not even remotely similar. We were demonstrably + objectively a much much better side in 06/07 than 14/15. So comparing 08 to 16 is completely flawed. They aren't even remotely close.

We are starting from a much much much lower base with players who havent shown they can win games (they cant even get a % above 80). A completely different set of players. There is simply no comparison - personnel wise - or as shown above - statistics and results wise. No comparison.

[White Winmar]

Sorry Con, but I was comparing the starts, not the entire seasons. You can't make a full comparison between any season and 2016 because, as
I clearly stated, we are less than 10% into this season. Your logic is flawed, perhaps non-existent. Perhaps it's affected by your pessimism and that true killer of logic, autonomic over-arousal expressed as emotion. Please read through my post more carefully before making illogical statements. I can make comparisons between each of the seasons mentioned, if I'm looking at the early rounds only. In this case, two rounds. I hope that clears up any confusion as to what I was saying. I fully expected us to lose the first two games. I also expect we'll win 9-10 for the year. I'm right on the first prediction, with the second one, we'll have to wait for the end of the season. It's called observational science. Trumps emotion every time.

I hope I'm right and you're wrong, but we're going to have to wait a lot longer to find out. Indeed, 2008 and 2016 can't be the same, logically. They are different years. They can be compared, however, and examined for similarity in patterns, etc. That's what scientists do all the time. Compare. Observe. Dispassionately. Objectively. Also, a minor point. You don't seem to understand the concept of "cause and effect". You're not alone on that score. Google it up.

[samuraisaint]

This year is going to be more like 2002 or 1995 I reckon. This year to be all about development and trying players out - even in positions they haven't usually be used - and a bottom 4/5 finish. The first 8 games are going to be difficult, but we should start to see some improvement in rounds 9-17, when we have more winnable matches. Toward the end of the season we will have a far greater idea of our progress than we do now in the first week of April,
We are fortunate the next two weeks to be playing weakened Collingwood and Hawthorn sides, which will limit potential damage. This will allow AR to swing the changes as necessary without hopefully copping 80 point hidings.
There was an excellent thread so time back on this site which compared and contrasted this era 2013-now with the Hawks recruiting/drafting from years 2004-2006, which gives some idea of what the club's strategy looks like. If sombody could please 'bump' that thread it would good.

[dragit]

Pretty high quality lists on paper in 1996, 2003, 2008…

2016 - not so much IMO, I'm not feeling it - think we could easily see 2 or 3 more years without finals.

[Con Gorozidis]

Sorry Con, but I was comparing the starts, not the entire seasons. You can't make a full comparison between any season and 2016 because, as
I clearly stated, we are less than 10% into this season. Your logic is flawed, perhaps non-existent. Perhaps it's affected by your pessimism and that true killer of logic, autonomic over-arousal expressed as emotion. Please read through my post more carefully before making illogical statements. I can make comparisons between each of the seasons mentioned, if I'm looking at the early rounds only. In this case, two rounds. I hope that clears up any confusion as to what I was saying. I fully expected us to lose the first two games. I also expect we'll win 9-10 for the year. I'm right on the first prediction, with the second one, we'll have to wait for the end of the season. It's called observational science. Trumps emotion every time.

I hope I'm right and you're wrong, but we're going to have to wait a lot longer to find out. Indeed, 2008 and 2016 can't be the same, logically. They are different years. They can be compared, however, and examined for similarity in patterns, etc. That's what scientists do all the time. Compare. Observe. Dispassionately. Objectively. Also, a minor point. You don't seem to understand the concept of "cause and effect". You're not alone on that score. Google it up.

I meant correlation v cause and effect. And I understand it. Just because two variables are the same (poor start to season) does not have any bearing on comparing the seasons. What matters is the actual list of players. The two player lists are entirely different. So the fact that we had poor start this year does not mean we will have a good year next year. There is no relationship between a poor start in year y and the result in year y + 1. The result in year y+ 1 is largely a result of the players. And the players from a decade ago were still winning more than 50% of games. The current crop are only winning 20%. Much lower base.

Apologies if I am misquoting you but you seemed.to.be suggesting.in the.op that a poor start to a season now would lead to a good result next season. Excuse me it that isnt what you meant.

[Con Gorozidis]

Sometimes I am like this guy

[Bunk_Moreland]

Sometimes I am like this guy

SO YOU'RE SAYING EVERYTHING ON THE INTERNET HAS TO BE FUN!!!!!!!!!!

[White Winmar]

Very funny, Con. You have heard of projection, haven't you? This is tremendous fun, IMHO of course.

[robsaint]

White Winmar - good to see some people on the site trying to put out some positive vibes. Let's hope we are able to attract some quality players, like we did when Blight came to the club. All you need is a few quality player and the rest of will lift around them.

[citywest]

Please see my signature.

[samuraisaint]

Pretty high quality lists on paper in 1996, 2003, 2008…

2016 - not so much IMO, I'm not feeling it - think we could easily see 2 or 3 more years without finals.

Correctamundo - we have a lot of holes in our list, and when we do re-enter the finals (probably in 2019) I want to be in the top 4 a la 1997 and 2004, so that we get the double chance.

[samuraisaint]

Sorry Con, but I was comparing the starts, not the entire seasons. You can't make a full comparison between any season and 2016 because, as
I clearly stated, we are less than 10% into this season. Your logic is flawed, perhaps non-existent. Perhaps it's affected by your pessimism and that true killer of logic, autonomic over-arousal expressed as emotion. Please read through my post more carefully before making illogical statements. I can make comparisons between each of the seasons mentioned, if I'm looking at the early rounds only. In this case, two rounds. I hope that clears up any confusion as to what I was saying. I fully expected us to lose the first two games. I also expect we'll win 9-10 for the year. I'm right on the first prediction, with the second one, we'll have to wait for the end of the season. It's called observational science. Trumps emotion every time.

I hope I'm right and you're wrong, but we're going to have to wait a lot longer to find out. Indeed, 2008 and 2016 can't be the same, logically. They are different years. They can be compared, however, and examined for similarity in patterns, etc. That's what scientists do all the time. Compare. Observe. Dispassionately. Objectively. Also, a minor point. You don't seem to understand the concept of "cause and effect". You're not alone on that score. Google it up.

The first 8 rounds are challenging, we might win one game - but we should certainly see improvement in the second third of the season between rounds 9-17.

[samuraisaint]

I know for some the sky is falling after Saturday night. It's hard not to be fatalistic when you support the Saints. I would say in defense of the team that we struck a red hot side, playing at its favourite venue and sky high in confidence. They had the ball 126 times more than we did. 126! Normally, that would convert into a 100 points + whacking, and although Saturday night's margin was bad enough, it could've been so much worse. The fact was we were under siege all night. They swamped us early and kept up the pressure all night. Frankly, they should've been 30+ points up at quarter time and out of sight. That they weren't was a testament to the way our side hung in there. Unfortunately, we failed to score on the counter, something I think Richo's plan relies on, but we won't be the last to be towelled up by the dogs under the roof and on a fast track at Etihad. It will be interesting to see how they go on cold, windy days at the 'G in July against a physically stronger opposition, and like Guinness, I doubt the Bulldogs travel well, either, but that's another story.

I see a lot of promise, and I'm not just "blue skying" here. Remember 1996? A lot of young draftees, second-hand players and a few older champions and we won the night flag when that still meant something. How did we start that year? Three straight losses, including a shocker at Princes Park against the Dees. We rallied to finish the year off well. You all know what happened the following year! Speaking of which, weren't we 1-4 in 1997, with calls for Stan to be sacked? Remember the "Joe Gutnick" affair, where he openly said on air that Balme needed to go? That game was labelled as the battle for coaching survival. We flogged them, and Balme was sacked. We led the GF at half time that year if I recall correctly.

Fast forward to 2003. We were 6-10, and many were questioning whether we'd ever improve under GT. We then went on to become the only side in AFL/VFL history to win four consecutive games by more than 60 points. That record still stands. It was a launching pad for 2004 and beyond. After Ross Lyon took over in 2007, many thought we were finished, including me. The GT years had been wasted. Lyon didn't seem to have the side on song at all. Not only weren't we winning as much, but we were also playing a horrid style of football, which was unwatchable some weeks. We missed the finals and started 2008 terribly as well. The vultures were circling. There were even calls to bring back GT!

Roo, fortunately, gave Lyon his backing, Dal and Milney were dropped, and we subsequently rallied to make the preliminary final, beaten by the eventual premiers. Nineteen straight wins at the start of 2009 followed. How we didn't win the flag that year is a bigger mystery than the pyramids, Bermuda Triangle, and Bruce Jenner's sexuality all rolled into one. So on to this year. We have a few ageing guns, a lot of "middle of the road" types, who let's face it, aren't that good, and won't be part of a serious challenge, and a bunch of highly promising youngsters who will. The nightmare recruiting years appear to be over and over the past three years, at least, we seem to have gotten it right. Don't forget Carlisle waits in the wings, an elite level player who will be fresh and ready to go next year. Don't forget we have room in the salary cap for an elite mid, or maybe even two, come trade time. My sources at the club tell me that we will have a crack at luring one, if not more, of the Essendon twelve, as they will cost nothing in trade terms as uncontracted free agents. Throw in an O'meara, or similar and the landscape changes very quickly. A bit like 1996, 2003, 2008 ...........

We may end up with Hurley yet - and we've been linked to Travis Colyer. Two very, very handy players.