Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
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- White Winmar
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Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
The speculation has begun. What is our trade strategy going to be this year? Like the kid in the lolly shop, armed with a couple of gift cards and pockets full of cash, are we going to gorge ourselves on top end talent, or go with some tried and true classics? Will we come away disappointed, the anticipation not matching the result? Two first rounders (possibly top ten the way things are going) FAs and RFA beckon, all with their own attractions and pitfalls.
Of course we all know there are no guarantees when it comes to drafting 18 year olds. The risks are high and talent and demonstrated ability at the junior level often misleads even the most thorough of recruiters. Then again, they come at the right price, are eager to fulfil their dreams and create excitement for the fans and members. What of snaring elite talent? Not always a lot on offer and it tends to be a seller's market. Many a GOP has stitched up a deal way out of proportion with the value offered. Chris Mayne, anyone? Desperation leads to emotive decisions, with cost becoming a forgotten factor. It's not just the problem of having someone on your list who is earning twice what everyone else is. Envy can destroy morale and committing large chunks of your cap to a few creates problems for the future. Many clubs, including ourselves circa 2012, had to pay the piper for earlier excesses, leading us to where we've been for the last five years.
So, what'll it be? For those who favour the youth route, consider this. In the 2014 draft, GWS had picks 4, 6, 7, 23 and 24. If we were going to this year's draft with those picks, it's fair to say we'd be a tad excited. Some might even splash a few shillings on us for a flag by 2020. So, GWS chose Pickett, Marchbank, Ahern, McKenna and Steele. Not a bad haul, one that was lauded at the time by the media and the club itself. There were no "smokies" taken, with the first three widely acknowledged as good picks. Our man came via their academy, having attracted interest from others. The glutton, GWS had feasted on the draft again. Fast forward to the end of 2016. Not one player from that haul remains on their list.
It's pretty fair to say that only Steele and Marchbank are doing reasonably well. Ahern has been cruelled by injuries and the others are struggling. Factor in that the Giants have also ditched Boyd(1), Jono O'Rourke (2) Will Hoskin Elliott (4) and Lachie Plowman, amongst others. I know they have the luxury of being liberal in their trading because they were gifted so many choices, but you'd think those early picks would've yielded better results. Not that early misses are that uncommon. Plenty are suggesting we mucked up with Paddy and JB. If they'd been picked by GWS, would they have already been traded? Without so many other early picks to rely on, you don't have to persevere with what you've got.
So, back to the point. Do we play it conservative and chase someone like Whitfield in a trade, Rockliff via FA and throw the kitchen sink at a true and proven elite talent like Fyfe or Martin? Or do we try and pluck a couple of gems from the draft? A Clayton Oliver, a Bont or a Gresh? In theory it looks easy. Either scenario would be great. The reality is much tougher and riskier. Thoughts?
Of course we all know there are no guarantees when it comes to drafting 18 year olds. The risks are high and talent and demonstrated ability at the junior level often misleads even the most thorough of recruiters. Then again, they come at the right price, are eager to fulfil their dreams and create excitement for the fans and members. What of snaring elite talent? Not always a lot on offer and it tends to be a seller's market. Many a GOP has stitched up a deal way out of proportion with the value offered. Chris Mayne, anyone? Desperation leads to emotive decisions, with cost becoming a forgotten factor. It's not just the problem of having someone on your list who is earning twice what everyone else is. Envy can destroy morale and committing large chunks of your cap to a few creates problems for the future. Many clubs, including ourselves circa 2012, had to pay the piper for earlier excesses, leading us to where we've been for the last five years.
So, what'll it be? For those who favour the youth route, consider this. In the 2014 draft, GWS had picks 4, 6, 7, 23 and 24. If we were going to this year's draft with those picks, it's fair to say we'd be a tad excited. Some might even splash a few shillings on us for a flag by 2020. So, GWS chose Pickett, Marchbank, Ahern, McKenna and Steele. Not a bad haul, one that was lauded at the time by the media and the club itself. There were no "smokies" taken, with the first three widely acknowledged as good picks. Our man came via their academy, having attracted interest from others. The glutton, GWS had feasted on the draft again. Fast forward to the end of 2016. Not one player from that haul remains on their list.
It's pretty fair to say that only Steele and Marchbank are doing reasonably well. Ahern has been cruelled by injuries and the others are struggling. Factor in that the Giants have also ditched Boyd(1), Jono O'Rourke (2) Will Hoskin Elliott (4) and Lachie Plowman, amongst others. I know they have the luxury of being liberal in their trading because they were gifted so many choices, but you'd think those early picks would've yielded better results. Not that early misses are that uncommon. Plenty are suggesting we mucked up with Paddy and JB. If they'd been picked by GWS, would they have already been traded? Without so many other early picks to rely on, you don't have to persevere with what you've got.
So, back to the point. Do we play it conservative and chase someone like Whitfield in a trade, Rockliff via FA and throw the kitchen sink at a true and proven elite talent like Fyfe or Martin? Or do we try and pluck a couple of gems from the draft? A Clayton Oliver, a Bont or a Gresh? In theory it looks easy. Either scenario would be great. The reality is much tougher and riskier. Thoughts?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
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- SaintWodonga
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Seriously need to go to the draft with our 2 draft picks, we need top end mids. I think Armo was our last low end mid we drafted (I don't count Billings as a mid).
- Linton Lodger
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
We need midfielders, preferably with outside speed and talent. If established players that meet our needs are available, then we should be open to trading our first round picks.
- Linton Lodger
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Well actually, on Tuesday night Jonathon Brown (3 time Premiership player). suggested that we're a Fyfe away from contending (for a Premiership). I'm inclined to agree, despite what armchair experts here think. So lets not get too precious about keeping picks and drafting kids.Proph3t of egan wrote:go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Ideally get one of each,trade one pick for an established player and draft a goodun.
Any draft pick has to be ready to go, and has to get opportunity.
Any draft pick has to be ready to go, and has to get opportunity.
- White Winmar
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Have to agree. Selwood and Dangerfield showed us where we were lacking on Sunday. I hope it's a lesson that will be observed.Linton Lodger wrote:Well actually, on Tuesday night Jonathon Brown (3 time Premiership player). suggested that we're a Fyfe away from contending (for a Premiership). I'm inclined to agree, despite what armchair experts here think. So lets not get too precious about keeping picks and drafting kids.Proph3t of egan wrote:go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
I recently looked at lists of the last twenty years' pick #1, pick #2, pick #3 etc.....
It's very clear that the draft is actually a complete lottery. Even those who are touted as absolute guns may end up as GOPs or even less. Pick 1 is as much lotto as pick 10 or even lower.
If it's possible to trade for a player who's showing or has shown his promise will turn into genuine quality, then this is the way to go I reckon. Someone like Kelly would be ideal, but his price may be too high, given NMFC have already offered him $9mil. But there will be other young players, early 20's, who have shown their credentials that we may be able to trade in with top ten picks plus players. Leave the draft lottery to other clubs. On top of that, use free agency where we can. I don't support getting someone like Fyfe or Dusty if we have to sell the farm to do it. Paying a super salary to one player is too high risk and too imbalanced with the rest of the list. Rockliffe for example would be an affordable option.
It's very clear that the draft is actually a complete lottery. Even those who are touted as absolute guns may end up as GOPs or even less. Pick 1 is as much lotto as pick 10 or even lower.
If it's possible to trade for a player who's showing or has shown his promise will turn into genuine quality, then this is the way to go I reckon. Someone like Kelly would be ideal, but his price may be too high, given NMFC have already offered him $9mil. But there will be other young players, early 20's, who have shown their credentials that we may be able to trade in with top ten picks plus players. Leave the draft lottery to other clubs. On top of that, use free agency where we can. I don't support getting someone like Fyfe or Dusty if we have to sell the farm to do it. Paying a super salary to one player is too high risk and too imbalanced with the rest of the list. Rockliffe for example would be an affordable option.
Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Not ready to challenge? Then why the hell go into top up mode with Brown, Stevens and Carlisle who we gave up pick 5 for? We are no guarantee to even make finals next year let alone this year. So Carlisle could be almost 28 before he even plays 1 final for us! WE could have had Aaron Francis who looks a ripper - versatile back forward or in the middle as a brute. And have him for 15 years. Lets hope we get a few good years out of Jake after he's seems to be going to take all this year, after missing last year, to get himself upto speed. Richo had the hots for Jake and couldn't resist him but the longer game wouold have been keep going young, staying down to get more elite picks and rising slower but with much more class.Proph3t of egan wrote:go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
I think Carlisle forces our hand to pull off a big trade for a quality midfielder. We can't afford to use high picks on the draft as its going to take a long time for them to come through and then Jake will be close to retiring. Did they think this through or just get the hots for Jake's height and athleticism?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Be that as that may, the likely hood of us getting Fyfe through free agency is probably pretty low, and to trade would be to give up at least 2 first rounders you would think. It's not about us not wanting or needing him, it's about will he want to come to usLinton Lodger wrote:Well actually, on Tuesday night Jonathon Brown (3 time Premiership player). suggested that we're a Fyfe away from contending (for a Premiership). I'm inclined to agree, despite what armchair experts here think. So lets not get too precious about keeping picks and drafting kids.Proph3t of egan wrote:go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
I don't think we are far from contending but we lack midfielders who can win ball and damage with that ball. Most if these blokes you mentioned aren't really top up either, the oldest being brown who is still 28. If we get that one missing piece we can start to look at challenging, but I'm not to hopeful on Fyfe wanting to move across the country to st kilda at the end of this yearBluthy wrote:Not ready to challenge? Then why the hell go into top up mode with Brown, Stevens and Carlisle who we gave up pick 5 for? We are no guarantee to even make finals next year let alone this year. So Carlisle could be almost 28 before he even plays 1 final for us! WE could have had Aaron Francis who looks a ripper - versatile back forward or in the middle as a brute. And have him for 15 years. Lets hope we get a few good years out of Jake after he's seems to be going to take all this year, after missing last year, to get himself upto speed. Richo had the hots for Jake and couldn't resist him but the longer game wouold have been keep going young, staying down to get more elite picks and rising slower but with much more class.Proph3t of egan wrote:go to the draft I reckon, our list as a whole is not ready to challenge for a flag, and we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on a guy like whitfield, who is cream on top of a cake we don't have yet. we should target someone in FA such as rockliff as he is more likely then dusty or fyfe. go to the draft and get the best kids available, and try to set our selves up for the future
I think Carlisle forces our hand to pull off a big trade for a quality midfielder. We can't afford to use high picks on the draft as its going to take a long time for them to come through and then Jake will be close to retiring. Did they think this through or just get the hots for Jake's height and athleticism?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Fyfe and Steven would be a dangerous tandem in midfield.
Honestly though i think you either go into the draft with Two Firsts or we somehow get Whitfield AND Hopper.
Honestly though i think you either go into the draft with Two Firsts or we somehow get Whitfield AND Hopper.
- Con Gorozidis
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
You must have had a terrific childhood WW...the kid in the lolly shop, armed with a couple of gift cards and pockets full of cash
But in all seriousness - I think what you really uncovered is how sh*t SOS is as a recruiter.
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
I'm starting to get concerned with our ability to pick young talent that still has potential for growth. Let's look at all the recruits we've taken since JB, Dunstan and Acres onwards. How many are still performing like they were in their first year ? We've not seen any major improvements really. Some might argue Dunstan has gone backward since his first year. Ditto Lonie, Sinclair. Paddy is still a fringe player in his 3rd year and for all his promise , McKenzie hasn't really shown consistent improvement. Some guys like HG have a fair enough excuse, but has the talent we are bringing in already hit their ceiling ? - or is it that we don't know how to develop these guys to the next level ?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
To a degree i think its a development issue. I get you cant throw rooks in the deep end. But i get the feeling players arent being put in a position to succeed.Zed wrote:I'm starting to get concerned with our ability to pick young talent that still has potential for growth. Let's look at all the recruits we've taken since JB, Dunstan and Acres onwards. How many are still performing like they were in their first year ? We've not seen any major improvements really. Some might argue Dunstan has gone backward since his first year. Ditto Lonie, Sinclair. Paddy is still a fringe player in his 3rd year and for all his promise , McKenzie hasn't really shown consistent improvement. Some guys like HG have a fair enough excuse, but has the talent we are bringing in already hit their ceiling ? - or is it that we don't know how to develop these guys to the next level ?
Billings plays across half back for sandy and is the main play maker but when he plays seniors hes confined to the wings. He may turn the ball over a tad and seems to be a handball first kind of player but need to play him across the back more often. Long was meant to be the versatile outside runner yet hes copping the forward pocket treatment. Sinclair still not a huge fan but he seems to benefit from playing mid and rotating down forward. Lonie seems to lack the killer instinct in front of goal and its hard for a player his size to be truly successful around the ground. Hed be better off watching tape of Betts, Milne and Daicos and perfecting his craft down forward. Paddy will take time as much as he is frustrating, hes only played 20 games and had a rough 2 years so far and still hasnt been given a 50m arc to himself. Trying to turn a player like him into an athlete just wont work hes a power forward, just kick it to him and let the kid go to work. Let Bruce, Skunk and Roo play lead up.
But id say we seem to be caught in the middle of trying to develop as well as push for finals. better off using this year to develop a best 30 players and look competitive, Use Draft and FA to capitalise on 2018 as a platform.
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
I say throw caution to the wind and try and get a Fyfe or Dusty. Dunno if we can pull it off, but bloody Footscray's flag makes it desperate times for us and a need to get the f****** flag ASAP IMO
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Whitfield out of conversation.
Wont be long until Fyfe and Martin re-sign either.
Wont be long until Fyfe and Martin re-sign either.
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Con Gorozidis wrote:Whitfield out of conversation.
Wont be long until Fyfe and Martin re-sign either.
Why is Whitfield out of the conversation. Has he signed a contract?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Not necessarily. Taking away the expectations of first round picks and looking objectively at the top 15 picks for the last 20 years, it really is lotto as to whether your "gun" teenager turns into a decent AFL player.shrodes wrote:Two first rounders, come on, at least one of them has to be good.
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Not yetst.byron wrote:Con Gorozidis wrote:Whitfield out of conversation.
Wont be long until Fyfe and Martin re-sign either.
Why is Whitfield out of the conversation. Has he signed a contract?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
There's no definitive right or wrong. Part will depend on the quality of the draft pool. I'm sure our recruiting staff will be all over the potential talent. If our picks have the potential to net some high grade talent they become more valuable. If the depth runs thin early the picks are less valuable.
Of course, there are exceptions. The Pies had two top ten picks in 2013 and ended up with Scharenburg (two ACLs) and Freeman (two years of hamstrings).
Either way, hopefully we'll draft a coupke of good kids or trade for some A grade talent (preferably midfielders with pace and skills).
Of course, there are exceptions. The Pies had two top ten picks in 2013 and ended up with Scharenburg (two ACLs) and Freeman (two years of hamstrings).
Either way, hopefully we'll draft a coupke of good kids or trade for some A grade talent (preferably midfielders with pace and skills).
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
Yep I read that. I reckon it doesn't mean anything. Certainly no grounds for saying he's out of the conversation. All that is is GWS talking it up. Every club says they're confident of retaining their players. Means zip IMO. Only thing with any substance will be when he signs.Con Gorozidis wrote:Not yetst.byron wrote:Con Gorozidis wrote:Whitfield out of conversation.
Wont be long until Fyfe and Martin re-sign either.
Why is Whitfield out of the conversation. Has he signed a contract?
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Re: Early draft picks -Snare and delusion.
remboy wrote: Of course, there are exceptions. The Pies had two top ten picks in 2013 and ended up with Scharenburg (two ACLs) and Freeman (two years of hamstrings).
Exactly. Would rather trade for a quality young mid two or three years into the system. Let the other clubs sort the wheat from the chaff when they first come into the system. Our current best player was pick 42 in the draft 10 years ago. First round pick is no guarantee of anything.
Here's a link to a list of all draft picks, chronologically listed since 1986.
http://www.afl.com.au/draft/draft-history