Expectations. 2021

[bigred]

Last year was great. On so many levels.

On the back of 2020 you would have many reasons to expect us to go even deeper this year.
When you throw in the trade and draft period, which was, in the end quite solid you could think that the list is in even better shape and reasonably well balanced. The club is just plain oozing with positivity. It really is.

However I have stacking concerns.

1. Injuries.

We have too many for this point of the year. Hell, for any point of the year.

Losing Paton in particular, is a big headache. This is a huge blow to his development. To be honest, going on his second half last year, there was no reason he couldn't be in AA conversations. He was critical to the back six last year. I love how he rolls.

Personally I am a pretty big believer in preseason training. Marshall, Hannebery, Byrnes, Geary, Frawley and Jones have had interupted or completely broken preseasons. This will weigh heavily on at least the first two months of the season and potentially even more on the last month.

2. List Depth.

Unbelievably our Ruck depth is going to be starting with our third and fourth string right off the bat. Hunter looks capable and I think we have seen enough of McKernan over his journey to know what to expect. Far from ideal. Marshall underdone we can handle but going in without Ryder is a massive loss. Ryder last year was a revelation. He will be sorely missed and I hope his issue is relieved in time.

Half back now looks a tad shakey with the loss of Paton. A couple of years back Webster was considered one of the better players on our list. Even with losing Paton, Webster is now only fringe. Added to that we are one more injury away from having Mckenzie as first string.

Highmore is an unknown and Carlisle is most definitely on the wrong side of somebody. the 2020 back six was critical in our development. At the moment it feels unsettled.

3.The FIXture.

Our fixture is, based on last years results probably the hardest you would ever be unlucky enough to get. Terrible double up draw playing four of last years top five TWICE. The Tigers, Cats, Power and Eagles twice FFS. The only saving grace we have is that only three of the first thirteen games are away from the dome.

The back half is terrible... Two games straight after the bye at the MCG which is ok, but then we have Brisbane, West Coast, Sydney and Geelong away, with a couple of games at the dome scattered in between.

If we dont make docklands a fortress, then we are in trouble. Dont be surprised if we look a tad shakey and awkward in the last six weeks of the year.

4. The wash.

I guess the point of this rambling is to highlight the challenge ahead. I wouldn't be surprised if we even miss the eight. With that said, I believe that we should be firmly entrenched in the top four by the bye and consolidating that by winning a couple of those away games on the back end.

However.... We could easily fall. If we drop a couple at Marvel, particularly in the first six weeks, then it could be a somewhat tense season. A few of the main DH footy scribes are saying that we will fall. Not all the talk is bullish. I think the injury list has watered down some of the expectations.

In six months I hope I'm here talking up how we are gonna win a prelim....

[skeptic]

It all depends on how we manage the start of the season.

First 4 games are all winnable... draw gets a bit harder after that.

If we can persevere and overcome this early adversity, perhaps see a few of these fringe players really put their hand up, it all hold us in good stead.

Will be an interesting first month that’s for sure

[darylcowie]

First 4 rounds are all losable too, although we should beat Essendon and Melbourne.
Then its a tough month, easier month and a brutal run after the bye, followed by some winnable games in August.
I think we will win about 10 matches this year, but missing the finals and retiring some veterans will make us fitter, faster and hungrier in 2022, when we could move well into the 8 with a kinder draw.

[bangaulegend]

My expectations have definitely lowered over the past month , Marshall is a huge loss lets hope the hot spot doesn't develop into a to a stress fracture or he may end up like Matthew Kruiser. Paton not as crucial but still hard to replace, Haneberry same ol same ol, Carlisle out of favour for what ever reason & Paddy on personal leave so things don't seem as rosy as they were earlier in the year. Oh well lets hope our luck changes & things turn around quickly.

[B.M]

Given our draw

Expectations are not as high as many on here

Hope is to play finals

[CQ SAINT]

Carlisle and Geary were expecting last year. Not sure who is expecting this year.

[Yorkeys]

Coaches and list will rise to the early challenges of star players unavailability. Sides will find us surprisingly hard to counter with an unorthodox, previously unknown set up and unheralded guys stepping up and grabbing their opportunities. Very competitive despite the adversities stacking up. Fortius Quo Fidelius.

[Wayne42]

I have NO expectations, we are talking about St Kilda.

[minneapolis]

I have NO expectations, we are talking about St Kilda.

Isn't that an expectation?

[Vortex]

A top 4 finish has to be the groups goal. Anything less will be huguely disappointing for this list which has the potential and is well within its right's to set such lofty goals.

As a fully paid up member of the Atheist Foundation of Australia I will be praying very hard to the footy Gods to stop his current vendetta against the club and allow an injury free year.

[cwrcyn]

We start the year without:

Marshall
King
Ryder
Frawley
Paton
Geary
Hannebery


Without those players we have to adjust our expectations. All but one are likely to miss the first month.

[darylcowie]

We start the year without:

Marshall
King
Ryder
Frawley
Paton
Geary
Hannebery


Without those players we have to adjust our expectations. All but one are likely to miss the first month.

We can add Jones, Crouch and Byrnes to that list!

[Otiman]

The fixture is a positive for me. More games against better opposition will strengthen us. I'd rather 5th with a hard fixture over 3rd with a soft one.

[cps]

Last year I thought anything from 6th to 10th so my expectations were exceeded - not a normal year though! This year I think 4th at best, 10th at worst. A lot depends on injuries of course.Our draw is tougher but we need to get experience against the best teams, and hopefully experience beating them too!

[skeptic]

6 weeks ago I thought we were going to surprise ppl and be serious, serious contenders
Feel a lot less optimistic now with the injuries but if we can pinch 2-3 of our first 4 I reckon we’re still a go

Hate to lose Paton as we have though. Really hurts

[desertsaint]

We always get shitty fixtures, obviously one of the last teams looked at. Need a covid type scenario that sees the season cut to 17 games again if we want a genuine shot at top four. Making the 8 will require an improvement upon last year - we barely held on. 5 more games last year and we'd likely have finished out.

[remboy]

I expect us to improve on last year. We have a better list, the guys we recruited last year have had a season to get used to each other, our coach has had a year in the job, the young guys will be better.
Bring it on!

[cwrcyn]

Expected improvers:

Coffield
Clark
Hill
Long
King
Battle
Bytel
Sinclair

New additions starting 18:

Crouch
Higgins

Returning from injury:

Gresham


Sliders:

Geary



Conclusion:

At full strength we will be a better team this year. However, if two or three key players stay on the sidelines then there's the potential to get leafrogged by a couple of clubs

[shanegrambeau]

We also have to identify 3/4 teams that will slide, for all teams are striving to rise this year.

I am thinking Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and hopefully Brisbane and possibly Richmond take the pay cut.

Also mid ladder teams GWS might slip,

Bulldogs are coming.