wallpaper fallen off - cracks exposed

[older saint]

I actually think yesterday is a representation of where the list currently sits. It is in a progression stage and progression isn't linear.

If you look at the list:
1 -50 games - these guys will be inconsistent and will excite fans with promise. The earlier they show a bit the higher the expectation and the time allowed for development drops away. We have 7 players in this category. Nas IMO is the standout in regard the development. I really like him off half back,like Sheezel people want to push him into the middle but I think keep him where he is as he has real class, time and evasion.

51-100 Games: This is the area we are devoid of compared to the top sides. This is where the players become stars that are going to ( remove the exceptions of the Judd ,Daicos types). We have 8 players in this bracket. Stocker at 51 games seems the most solid, King is the one who has the star ability but injury has stopped him getting a true run at things. I still think is he can get a 22 game season in lots can happen . he falls into the above category of expectation v reality and circumstances. Fortunately coaches are more patient than some fans with him as that type of talent doesn't pop up often. He needs a good run at it and he isn't Nick Riewoldt. Clark has been cruelled by injury also , but after that we mainly have foot soliders here.

100 - 150 : We have 10 in this group and some of our better players are here - Marshall, Wilkie , Higgins, Battle

150-200: 4 players here - Steele, Sinclair, Membrey, Crouch,

200 plus HIll, Ross

Having missed with our picks in 2012 ( Wight) , 2014 ( McCartin over Petracca), 2016 (Ben Long),2017 ( clark Coffield - injuries cruelled this so maybe harsh),2020 (Allison) is now hurting in the areas we need hence the need to trade in players , most not first round talent,

We have lost 5 games by 10 or less so with luck could actually have been say 7-2 but that would have covered where the team actually sits.
I think we are 2-3 years off contending and need to get class in the middle - LDU, McCluggage ar ethe 2 obvious FA we need . We also need to draft top end talent and be creative moving up the draft into the top 5 if we dont finish there as 8-15 , which have been ok in recent times, is much more hit and miss.

We are an average side playing as average sides do when they have heart and effort and dont give up. That is reality

[cwrcyn]

How many players currently aged 25 and under do you see being regulars making a solid contribution in 2026 and which positions do weed need to fill when considering that group?

[Vortex]

The injuries haven't helped combined with a very young and inexperienced team.

It's a rebuild and patience will be needed.

[Teflon]

Good thread
I thought last year the difference was exposed by GWS in that final
I walked away knowing we were a long way off it and knowing we’d had a decent draw
I thought this year (like when Lyon took over last time) could be a step back k to go forward- especially playing kids
The club have been really clear for a while now where they see us. This thread from BF sums it up:

***
Some folks just don't tune in to the club's vibe and instead push their own agendas. The club has been straight up about how we were fooling ourselves under Ratten and were further from our goals than we realized. Ross came in to rebuild, and we've made the most of our draft picks in both drafts since Ratten.

The club keeps saying we need more talent, like, they've been saying it on repeat. But some fans thought we'd magically be top 4. If you actually listen, the club's been pretty consistent in their message.

[Vortex]

Good thread
I thought last year the difference was exposed by GWS in that final
I walked away knowing we were a long way off it and knowing we’d had a decent draw
I thought this year (like when Lyon took over last time) could be a step back k to go forward- especially playing kids
The club have been really clear for a while now where they see us. This thread from BF sums it up:

***
Some folks just don't tune in to the club's vibe and instead push their own agendas. The club has been straight up about how we were fooling ourselves under Ratten and were further from our goals than we realized. Ross came in to rebuild, and we've made the most of our draft picks in both drafts since Ratten.

The club keeps saying we need more talent, like, they've been saying it on repeat. But some fans thought we'd magically be top 4. If you actually listen, the club's been pretty consistent in their message.

The only bit I disagree with is the messaging from Lyon and the club, the message has been what I would say is "suggestive" in it's messaging about rebuild plans and yes I agree that if you've been paying attention since Bassett held the press conference to introduce Lyon's return, you would have understood Lyon was given a mandate to rebuild.

The reason I think the messaging is "suggestive" about the rebuild is to do with salesmanship for membership and sponsorship which is a really tough line to balance on. So when Ross talks about "Dual Narrative", that's salesmanship, playing kids while trying to win is like saying water is wet. Just meaningless marketing jargon.

The tightrope of salesmanship for a coach doesn't allow him to be honest and say accurately what he knows is reality which is he's cutting the list hard by introducing kids at a high rate which will mean losing more often than not...while "trying to win".

I predict he might rest more of the kids in the second half of the season as they tire and get some bigger bodies in to see if he can win some games late to excite the fans and sponsors leading into the pre season and keep the bean counters happy.

[Teflon]

Good thread
I thought last year the difference was exposed by GWS in that final
I walked away knowing we were a long way off it and knowing we’d had a decent draw
I thought this year (like when Lyon took over last time) could be a step back k to go forward- especially playing kids
The club have been really clear for a while now where they see us. This thread from BF sums it up:

***
Some folks just don't tune in to the club's vibe and instead push their own agendas. The club has been straight up about how we were fooling ourselves under Ratten and were further from our goals than we realized. Ross came in to rebuild, and we've made the most of our draft picks in both drafts since Ratten.

The club keeps saying we need more talent, like, they've been saying it on repeat. But some fans thought we'd magically be top 4. If you actually listen, the club's been pretty consistent in their message.

The only bit I disagree with is the messaging from Lyon and the club, the message has been what I would say is "suggestive" in it's messaging about rebuild plans and yes I agree that if you've been paying attention since Bassett held the press conference to introduce Lyon's return, you would have understood Lyon was given a mandate to rebuild.

The reason I think the messaging is "suggestive" about the rebuild is to do with salesmanship for membership and sponsorship which is a really tough line to balance on. So when Ross talks about "Dual Narrative", that's salesmanship, playing kids while trying to win is like saying water is wet. Just meaningless marketing jargon.

The tightrope of salesmanship for a coach doesn't allow him to be honest and say accurately what he knows is reality which is he's cutting the list hard by introducing kids at a high rate which will mean losing more often than not...while "trying to win".

I predict he might rest more of the kids in the second half of the season as they tire and get some bigger bodies in to see if he can win some games late to excite the fans and sponsors leading into the pre season and keep the bean counters happy.

I think winning games late - no matter the look - is the worst thing we could do
An honourable limp into 10th does us zero favours
This draft is chock full of gun mids
Time for a top 5 pick
Don’t **** it up
Keep blooding the kids
What I’d be happy with ??
Lyon fixes the forward half connection and we start to free up and score BUT I’m not interested in the wins
Call me tanker ..,what ever ….i can get excited enough by seeing young talent come through…I don’t need wins where Zac Jones looks good for 20 possessions
Anyone who needs surgery - off you go
Rest season is “whose trade able”
I predict- 2025 we’ll bounce …and IF we secure an LDU plus a top 5 mid in draft ….we are in our way (not there yet..but a v good start )

[Scollop]

Keep playing the kids. Give them a fair go the way Garcia and Hastie have had multiple games in a row…NOT the way we introduced Lance boy to his debut game.

The other extreme is playing an 18 year old for each and every game and expecting them to perform like the senior more experienced players. You have to consider the damaging effect of playing them when they are going through form slumps. Even if the coaching group and fans are forgiving, it may be detrimental to a young guys confidence

I don’t care if we lose a few thousand members and a few sponsors short term. We’ll regain tens of thousands of members and we’ll have sponsors coming to us when we are playing a better brand of footy.

[samuraisaint]

The injuries haven't helped combined with a very young and inexperienced team.

And let's not forget the suspensions.

[Scollop]

We’ve been competitive at VFL level now that a few senior players are in that squad. We won last week and nearly pulled off a win today. That builds good culture.

The other advantage of having senior players in the VFL is that it helps support our youth as they develop. Having 3-4 youngsters in the seniors is important, but more important is the connection that is built when you have most of the young guys winning together and building connection together at VFL level.

I still think we need to give maximum opportunities to the youth (3 games in the seniors or more if form warrants it) and rotate their time between the two levels. If the club hierarchy are fair dinkum about getting St Kilda up the ladder they won’t focus on the short term

[meher baba]

Putting together a string of wins and growing the confidence of the young players we currently have would be far more important than having a more valuable ticket in the lottery of the end of season draft. And there's also the question of attracting members and sponsors.

We are coming into a dangerous period during which the AFL could conceivably be looking to cut or merge a club. Recruiting Lyon was a good strategy for dealing with that risk, but we'd undermine it if we were to start transparently tanking again. The early 2000s was a very special circumstance in which the club was in crisis, and Waldron, Thomas and Butterss skillfully managed our performance down to the cellar and thereby guided us into a much better position. The same opportunities are not there right now.

We don't need to go back to the drawing board. We have a good mix of young and experienced players. We have shown we are not way off the pace. We should have beaten the Cats and the Bombers, who are second and third on the table. We were robbed by the umps of a win against the Power, who are sixth on the table. And we ran GWS - who are fifth on the table - extremely close. And we beat the Pies and, FWIW, the Roos and the Tigers.

We have put in two seriously poor performances: against the Dogs and the Hawks, both of whom exposed the vulnerability of our game plan against teams that run hard and pass the ball accurately by foot. Even then, we should have beaten the Hawks. And I don't think there is much we can do to fix our problems against teams that play like the Dogs and Hawks did: all game plans have their flaws, and that's ours.

In all our other games, we have been highly competitive outside of our forward 50 but, when we get the ball closer to goal, we don't create enough scoring opportunities and, more importantly, don't convert enough of those we get.

So the forward line is a big problem. Something has to be done up there. I have suggested for some time swapping over Boris and Harvey. Things are well set up down back and Harvey couldn't do much harm down there. Boris is fantastic at postioning players, which is a big part of our problem up front. Perhaps Harves gets one more chance against the Dockers, and then the club must act.

[Otiman]

I think the mandate to rebuild was then met with surprise when we ended up top 4 for most of the season.

We (the fans) got excited and expected a step up this year, whereas we (the club) stayed the course.

The last finals tease (2020) got us excited for a quick build & have a crack but it, which was effectively Ratten's demise.

[asiu]

Putting together a string of wins and growing the confidence of the young players we currently have would be far more important than having a more valuable ticket in the lottery of the end of season draft.

intent

reality
we put together a string of close losses

is it not smart , to play the cards we are dealt , well ?

[Otiman]

If we won GWS, Essendon, Geelong and Hawthorn games we would be having a much different conversation.

I wonder if perhaps the club and players (and supporters) are being made to feel inferior to kick in the next level of development.

[SaintWiki]

Good thread and some good points made.

I think the body language of players and staff is currently appalling. Take a look at the Hawthorn players who were thoroughly enjoying themselves and doing a lot of things right whereas our players often looked like they not fully switched on, fumbling and making poor decisions and appeared to see the game as a difficult task. Take Henry for instance in his first game he was grinning like a Cheshire cat as he cut through the opposition, on Saturday he looked like a lost sheep - and he wasn't Robinson Crusoe.

[older saint]

How many players currently aged 25 and under do you see being regulars making a solid contribution in 2026 and which positions do weed need to fill when considering that group?

25 and under
Regulars:
Windy
Nas
Clark
higgins
Owens
King
Battle
Poo
Henry

Too early to tell
Wilson
Hastie
Garcia
Collard

Maybe:
Dow, Stocker, Cama, Paton, Sharman, Brynes

Unseen
Shoemakers, O'Connoll, Heath, McLennan, Hotton, Van Es, Allison,Keeler,

older who will be regulars in 2026:
Marshall, Steele, HIll, Wilkie, Sinclair

Basically unknown is how guys will develop but what stands out like dogs balls is we need highly skilled footballers, through both FA and draft. LDU, McClugage are upcoming options , although cannot see McClugage leaving unless they miss finals. Aggressive trading to get up in draft - North have no big defenders Howard to north with pick swap in first round ( an example of what we need to do)

[meher baba]

Aggressive trading to get up in draft - North have no big defenders Howard to north with pick swap in first round ( an example of what we need to do)

So we then they have a big defender and we don’t? (I don’t think Cordy really counts: he is a utility player and is a bit shorter than Dougal)

I assume that you share what I see as the tendency of SS posters to underestimate Howard. But if I’m wrong and you’re right and Howard wouldn’t be much of a loss, then why would you expect any other club to offer us a first round pick for him?

Are the recruiters at other clubs stupider than ours?

[Sanctorum]

Very good discussion. I felt really flat after watching the telecast of our team losing by 5 points to bottom 4 placed Hawks at Aspley Hornets AFL club with a good mate.

It was yet another game where St Kilda never really got going, playing a poor brand of football which was in total contrast to 2023.

I was one of those delusionists who felt that our team would improve their ladder position this year, silly old fool me!

Clearly when we analyse the list St Kilda is effectively a bottom 4 team, with barely 3 or 4 A graders, which would indicate that the Saints will in all likelihood finish around 13-14 at best.

But even so, this doesn't explain why, compared to last year, their form has dropped away so dramatically.

Not surprisingly this brings the heat on Ross Lyon, from supporters and the football media.

In today's Herald Sun Mark Robinson, who has previously spoken highly of the coach, made the following comments:

"The Saints are a mess. They can't kick goals. They play boring football. They have lost by eight, four, one and five points this season, but gallantry runs out of patience.

Their 58 points scored against Hawthorn on Saturday follows scores of 72, 64, 79, 67 and 67.

There was the 103 points scored against North Melbourne but who isn't kicking goals against the Kangas?

The headline after Saturday's loss was coach Ross Lyon bemoaning his inability to get messsages to his players.

It mght be true, but Lyon generally lives by the mantra that you don't explain and you don't complain.

The headline should've been: we had 52 entries and we only kicked 59 points.

Let's not pussy-foot around here, either. Max King and Tim Menrey need to have more influence. So does Mitch Owens. Their small forwards were also not a scoreboard influence. Defensively, the Saints are mid-table in several categories, when last year they were the best defensive team in the competition.

One of the curiosities this season is working out where is the list. It's not this bad surely?"

I have noted recently that I am somewhat bemused that in 2023 Lyon paid tribute on numerous occasions to his assistants for devising the game plan, but not at all this year AFAIK. Apart from a couple of games St Kilda's game plan has failed significantly - or at least the players do not appear to me to be following a particular script.

For example, in Saturday's match St Kilda won a lot of the important stats: despite losing hit-outs 37 - 50 they won the clearances 38 -34. The difference to me was that it looked like Sam Mitchell was playing far more man-on-man than the Saints, thus putting immense pressure on our players when they had possession, forcing them to make errors. It surprised me that the coaches never came up with a plan to counter that manoevre.

Disappointment aside, I have not lost faith in either the players or the coaches to work out a way to improve the quality of football in the coming weeks, with the onus mainly on the players to find some form.

[older saint]

Aggressive trading to get up in draft - North have no big defenders Howard to north with pick swap in first round ( an example of what we need to do)

So we then they have a big defender and we don’t? (I don’t think Cordy really counts: he is a utility player and is a bit shorter than Dougal)

I assume that you share what I see as the tendency of SS posters to underestimate Howard. But if I’m wrong and you’re right and Howard wouldn’t be much of a loss, then why would you expect any other club to offer us a first round pick for him?

Are the recruiters at other clubs stupider than ours?

Not at all , I see Howard as valuable, but on the basis that Shoemakers or Keeler can develop, or Cordy plays 3rd tall, or could a backline of Wilkie and Battle be enough as the monsters don't seem to be around as much as previously. Need to give to get and if say we have pick 6 and north say a top 2 pick and no big backs at all I don't think it is too crazy considering the shortage of tall bigs around.
just throwing it out there.