Top Ten Draft picks - 2 years to perform or out?

[saintspremiers]

Armitage showed us very little in 2007, to be fair to the lad, being a smallish player his body needs some more time to mature and beef up a bit (nature will take it's course on this one).

Unfortunately though, I believe if a top ten draft pick doesn't perform after 2 full seasons (add an extra season if they do a serious injury), they are close to being out on their ear.

I hope Armo comes together in 2008, as we invested heavily for him in the draft.

Am I being too harsh - should the criteria be 3 years perhaps??

Anyway, I'd hate to see another Barry Brooks in our ranks - we really need our players to stand up and contribute from a young age.

Yep - it's a tough caper - 18 year old blokes aren't physically mature and the one's that are bigger (ie. McEvoy) ruckman types are invariably a bit unco and need to learn a bit of coordination.

Dunno the answer, just as long as our boys perform to at least the AFL average for new blood I guess.....

[Sobraz]

Abit harsh i would think.... But there are some early signs that may show if a young player will make it or not, but two years is not enough..

Gilbert looked near enough to out of his depth for 2 years, and even early this season did nothing in the VFL to really warrent selection, but due to injury got a chance and was a revelation.. If we were full strength, Gilb may not have got his chance and kept playing ok footy for the scorps, but you wouldnt want to discard him...

In saying that, I think the club made the right moves with players like Sweeny and Mini, who, whilst at the club for a short time, really didnt grab their opportunity, or knuckle down hard enough.. Howard is one I have serious question marks over... at the end of this coming season you thoughts may ring true in his case...

[fingers]

Most will need 3 years.

[n1ck]

Three years.

[bigcarl]

at least three years. mcevoy might be an exception, though. needs to beef up a bit, but could even play a game or two this year

[Huzzad]

Yeah over the years we have seen quite a few players take a few years to really develop. Look at Monty. Even Lenny Hayes was a 30-something pick selection if I am not mistaken. We'd all love to see players in the first year or two but sometimes it is just not realistic. Let the coaches and trainers do their work and when they are ready they will play. No need to rush development.

[SaintBot]

Even Lenny Hayes was a 30-something pick selection if I am not mistaken..

im afraid you are...

he was just outside the top ten from memory

similar to dal santo who went at 13 im sure

[LTN16]

Yep - it's a tough caper - 18 year old blokes aren't physically mature and the one's that are bigger (ie. McEvoy) ruckman types are invariably a bit unco and need to learn a bit of coordination.

Thats the thing McEvoy isn't unco like some of the other Ruckmen are.

[Huzzad]

Even Lenny Hayes was a 30-something pick selection if I am not mistaken..

im afraid you are...

he was just outside the top ten from memory

similar to dal santo who went at 13 im sure

Ah, my bad. Then who was @ 30-something? Was it Montagna?

[SaintBot]

Even Lenny Hayes was a 30-something pick selection if I am not mistaken..

im afraid you are...

he was just outside the top ten from memory

similar to dal santo who went at 13 im sure

Ah, my bad. Then who was @ 30-something? Was it Montagna?

our best picks at 30+

Shane Wakelin - #31 - 1992
Matthew Lappin - #40 - 1993
Austin Jones - #48 - 1994
Jason Cripps - #38 - 1995
Jason Heatly - #49 - 1996
Andrew Thompson - #62 - 1996
Troy Schwarze - #53 - 1998
Leigh Montagna - #37 - 2001
Leigh Fisher - #46 - 2002
Sam Fisher - #55 - 2003
Sam Gilbert - #33 - 2005
Michael Rix - #49 - 2005
Jarry Allen - #59 - 2006
Jack Steven - #42 - 2007
Fraser Gehrig - #57 - 2007
Eljay Connors - #70 - 2007

[BAM! (shhhh)]

I've got a lot of sympathy for recruiters. Men hit their physical prime in their mid 20s to early 30s. Factoring in wear and tear in an endurance and athleticism game like AFL, that probably means from roughly 23 to 29 or so.

While the numbers are a guess, it does mean that a recruiter has to look at 17/18 year olds and draft the guy they'll be in 5 years. Somehow, they need to factor in development, opportunity etc... and the luck. I generally don't expect much of draftees till year 3. Some have great rookie years, and a few break in in year 2 - but even the great rookies rarely go onto even better second years. It's in year 3, when the effect of the pro-athlete lifestyle (lots of gym, lots of personalised training and dietary help) start to pay off that we really get a taste of what they can be. Saints are tough to crack this year, so I won't be shattered if Armo doesn't - or Howard, or McEvoy, or Steven, etc. etc.

This thread makes me think of something from early in '07. Gwilt was running (well, meandering really) out of defense, didn't realise he was hot, and got run down by Alwyn Davey. Till then he'd looked okay... but after that he looked hunted every time he got the ball, was always rushed, and not composed. A game or two later against Port (I think?), Gilbert was running out of defense... similarly looked like he was about to get run down unaware. Big difference was Gilbert broke the tackle, and sprinted away - went on to have a season typified by sprinting with the ball and breaking tackles (loved it every time he went near the midfield)...

I'm not trying to imply the difference between Gilbert and Gwilt can be summed up in those 2 plays (though it is food for thought).

I am saying that it's about finding that opportunity and grabbing it with both hands. What should be the difference between an Armitage and a Howard/Steven ought to be the likelihood of doing it given the chance.

[Joffa Burns]

Pretty harsh on 2 years one would think.

Most top 10 picks have the talent, as long as they have the commitment they should be given ample opportunity.

I think any games you get in years one and two from any players (17 or 18 year old) in years one and two should be treated as a bonus rather than a requirement.

[Sobraz]

I've got a lot of sympathy for recruiters. Men hit their physical prime in their mid 20s to early 30s. Factoring in wear and tear in an endurance and athleticism game like AFL, that probably means from roughly 23 to 29 or so.

While the numbers are a guess, it does mean that a recruiter has to look at 17/18 year olds and draft the guy they'll be in 5 years. Somehow, they need to factor in development, opportunity etc... and the luck. I generally don't expect much of draftees till year 3. Some have great rookie years, and a few break in in year 2 - but even the great rookies rarely go onto even better second years. It's in year 3, when the effect of the pro-athlete lifestyle (lots of gym, lots of personalised training and dietary help) start to pay off that we really get a taste of what they can be. Saints are tough to crack this year, so I won't be shattered if Armo doesn't - or Howard, or McEvoy, or Steven, etc. etc.

This thread makes me think of something from early in '07. Gwilt was running (well, meandering really) out of defense, didn't realise he was hot, and got run down by Alwyn Davey. Till then he'd looked okay... but after that he looked hunted every time he got the ball, was always rushed, and not composed. A game or two later against Port (I think?), Gilbert was running out of defense... similarly looked like he was about to get run down unaware. Big difference was Gilbert broke the tackle, and sprinted away - went on to have a season typified by sprinting with the ball and breaking tackles (loved it every time he went near the midfield)...

I'm not trying to imply the difference between Gilbert and Gwilt can be summed up in those 2 plays (though it is food for thought).

I am saying that it's about finding that opportunity and grabbing it with both hands. What should be the difference between an Armitage and a Howard/Steven ought to be the likelihood of doing it given the chance.

I like the example of Gilbert and Gwilt.. I think it furthr illustartes how much of the game is player between the ears... A feeling of belonging at the level takes a player a long way... Gwilts confidence may have been shot after that, and you could see him second guessing, whereas Gilb wouldve felt, 'hey, this aint so hard', and away he went..

[saintsRrising]

Am I being too harsh - should the criteria be 3 years perhaps??

.....

Yes you are too harsh....and more so as some selections are almosta year younger than others....


The other factor is how wella team is playing (plus injuries).

Young kids at the Blues will geta lot more opportunity than say at the Cats next year.


Take Kruezer....he will probably be given quite a few games whereas McEvoy may not get one...and this will have little to do with Kruzer being more highly rated.


However even at training or at Casey players will be assesses for committment, attitude ability etc a dismal showing yes may see some players chopped at 2 years or less.

However MOST need to be DEVELOPED physically, mentally and with skills coaching. This takes time.


Look at Joey just blooming now...


BUT what needs to be in evidence is steady IMPROVEMENT...Joey, Lenny...even Fiora have all demonstrated continual improvent.

Whereas Brooks just tread water.

[HarveysDeciple]

Even Lenny Hayes was a 30-something pick selection if I am not mistaken..

im afraid you are...

he was just outside the top ten from memory

similar to dal santo who went at 13 im sure

11 I think.

Swans had 3 picks before he was taken too.

[ausfatcat]

It took Gram 4 years??

Also this was Gilberts second year (someone posted it was his third).



As said above they can take 5 years to come alog which is fine as long as there is improvement every year.

[Otiman]

Armitage showed us very little in 2007, to be fair to the lad, being a smallish player his body needs some more time to mature and beef up a bit (nature will take it's course on this one).

Lies, everyone was singing his praises saying he was the most ready made of the midfielders in the draft. Selwood and Boak are clearly ahead of him, even if they were taken earlier in the draft. He could still end up better than both of them, but not going on 2007 form.

[vacuous space]

Lies, everyone was singing his praises saying he was the most ready made of the midfielders in the draft.

Various members of the Bryce Gibbs hype machine were saying he was AFL ready at 16. Most of Selwood's backers figured he'd be at least ready for AFL duty if healthy. Armo wasn't considered at the same level as Gibbs or Selwood. Neither was Boak by most people in the leadup to the draft. Any thoughts that Armo was AFL ready would have been put to bed by the three games he played. I think he has the body and the skills to play AFL footy right now, he just needs to adjust to the faster pace of the game. Remember, it's a bigger step up for the Queenslanders than it is for just about everyone else.

[midas_touch]

3 Years should be the minimum, with exceptions of course i.e. attitude issues. For the big men, sometimes even longer is required as we can see with Hamish McIntosh.

[Animal Enclosure]

Armo's 3 games also coincided with our 4 game losing streak & a massive injury list. Unlike Joel Selwood who had the luxury of playing in a very good side with everyone available, Armitage didn't have anywhere near the same support to show his talent.

In the two practice matches at Optus he had a real good run in the middle & looked very very good. Linked up well, tackled hard and showed a raking left foot.

He will be a very good player for us in time. Patience is a virtue with young players, especially these days when being super fit is a prerequisite. It takes at least two full pre seasons to be ready to go.

[nathan000]

alot depends on the type of player you are talking about. like you said armitage is still a bit skinny and doesn't look quiet ready for afl footy just yet, so you need to give him a couple more years to develop, same will probably go for players like mcevoy etc. where as if you look at a player like tom hawkins from geelong, he is a big boy, and has the frame for afl football already, if he doesn't show much next year, i wouldn't hold onto him for much longer if i were the geelong board.

[Otiman]

Armo's 3 games also coincided with our 4 game losing streak & a massive injury list. Unlike Joel Selwood who had the luxury of playing in a very good side with everyone available, Armitage didn't have anywhere near the same support to show his talent.

Conversely, Selwood had to cement his spot in a dominating team, and Armo could only get a game when we were decimated with injuries.

[nathan000]

Armo's 3 games also coincided with our 4 game losing streak & a massive injury list. Unlike Joel Selwood who had the luxury of playing in a very good side with everyone available, Armitage didn't have anywhere near the same support to show his talent.

Conversely, Selwood had to cement his spot in a dominating team, and Armo could only get a game when we were decimated with injuries.

selwood had an outstanding first year, and wasn't going to be bettered. but it was close to impossible for armitage to stand out because of the crap football we were playing, he will go alot better this year if given the chance.

[Otiman]

Armo's 3 games also coincided with our 4 game losing streak & a massive injury list. Unlike Joel Selwood who had the luxury of playing in a very good side with everyone available, Armitage didn't have anywhere near the same support to show his talent.

Conversely, Selwood had to cement his spot in a dominating team, and Armo could only get a game when we were decimated with injuries.

selwood had an outstanding first year, and wasn't going to be bettered. but it was close to impossible for armitage to stand out because of the crap football we were playing, he will go alot better this year if given the chance.

For sure, a full pre-season should do him a world of good as well. Word from the Scorpions was that he couldn't run out a full VFL game, and was rarely in the bests there.

[nathan000]

Armo's 3 games also coincided with our 4 game losing streak & a massive injury list. Unlike Joel Selwood who had the luxury of playing in a very good side with everyone available, Armitage didn't have anywhere near the same support to show his talent.

Conversely, Selwood had to cement his spot in a dominating team, and Armo could only get a game when we were decimated with injuries.

selwood had an outstanding first year, and wasn't going to be bettered. but it was close to impossible for armitage to stand out because of the crap football we were playing, he will go alot better this year if given the chance.

For sure, a full pre-season should do him a world of good as well. Word from the Scorpions was that he couldn't run out a full VFL game, and was rarely in the bests there.

that's not a good sign for a young midfielder, i'm sure ross and the coaching crew can enhance his endurance, hell he should talk to robert harvey.