4th not out of the question.....

stinger · Post: # 602615Post **stinger** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:44pm

teams p w l d % pts
Geelong 15 14 1 0 152.0 56
Western Bulldogs 15 13 1 1 134.1 54
Hawthorn 15 13 2 0 130.0 52
Sydney 15 9 5 1 125.3 38
Collingwood 15 9 6 0 120.7 36
Adelaide 15 8 7 0 105.9 32
Brisbane 15 8 7 0 103.1 32
St. Kilda 15 8 7 0 99.8 32
North Melbourne 15 7 7 1 94.4 30
Carlton 15 7 8 0 93.7 28
Richmond 15 6 8 1 96.5 26
Essendon 15 6 9 0 82.1 24
Port Adelaide 15 4 11 0 92.0 16
Fremantle 15 2 13 0 85.8 8
West Coast 15 2 13 0 65.0 8
Melbourne 15 2 13 0 64.6 8

Cairnsman · Post: # 602621Post **Cairnsman** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:46pm

Agree. If we win next week I reckon we could then go unbeaten for the remaining 6 games.

esaint66 · Post: # 602623Post **esaint66** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:48pm

Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.

Teflon · Post: # 602626Post **Teflon** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:50pm

saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.

If we win 5 from 7 we finish 5th by my reckoning to face Sydney in Sydney....no thanks.

mick13 · Post: # 602627Post **mick13** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:50pm

We've really only got 3 tough games: Hawks, Pies and in fact...make that 2 tough games. As I wouldnt put money on Adelaide winning another game this season.

We play Port who are tanking, Freo who are crap, West Coast who are crap, and tanking. And Adelaide who will be holding on for dear life, but surely we'll beat them at the Dome. The Dons are playing some very good footy, and round 22 looms as a danger match. Could be playing off for a top 4 spot that day. And Essendon could be playing off for a spot in the 8. So both teams would be doing their best to win.

Gonna be good, either way.

plugger66 · Post: # 602628Post **plugger66** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:51pm

saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.

To get the double chance we would have to win 10 in a row. Our record is 1 win and 6 losses against top 8 sides. Maybe we should just try to make the finals first before worrying about top 4.

fonz_#15 · Post: # 602629Post **fonz_#15** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:53pm

Teflon wrote:
saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.
If we win 5 from 7 we finish 5th by my reckoning to face Sydney in Sydney....no thanks.

don't know what your understanding of the finals system is but if we finish 5th we host a finals game.

mick13 · Post: # 602632Post **mick13** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:56pm

It'll be played at the G wont it though?

super dooper · Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:57pm

Love the optimism, but...

The rest of the teams occupying the top 8 atm; we HAVEN'T beaten any of them, except sydney in rd 1 who were knowingly underdone coming into the season in a less than convincing game.

A top 4 side normally beats teams sitting in the 8

Smashed by bulldogs, geelong, brisbane and a loss to collingwood.

The hawks are a formidable force and will deservingly start as favourites.
Meanwhile i think we are better than Adelaide.

Yes, we have won 3 in a row, but we have beaten, Freo just who are a rabble, North in a gutsy win and carlton. Not one of wins was against finals material opponents, and we noteablly struggled in periods of all of those games.

If we give the first qt we gave north, 15 mins in the last that we gave carl, 2nd qt against freo... I assure you that the TOP 4 sides would have serverly punished us and we wouldnt be sitting at 8 and 7.

That in my opinion is more of a reality check than saying we are top 4 material despite being only 6 pts out of the 4.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here.

We simply must beat Hawthorn, its our grand final and even if we do, we have to have a decent streak of 6-8 to say we are a top 4 side!!

stinger · Post: # 602634Post **stinger** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:57pm

plugger66 wrote:
saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.
To get the double chance we would have to win 10 in a row. Our record is 1 win and 6 losses against top 8 sides. Maybe we should just try to make the finals first before worrying about top 4.

spoil sport....

stinger · Post: # 602636Post **stinger** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 10:58pm

mick13 wrote:It'll be played at the G wont it though?

not necessarily......if the top team and the third team are both victorian...which seems more than likely.....

plugger66 · Post: # 602637Post **plugger66** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:00pm

stinger wrote:
plugger66 wrote:
saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.
To get the double chance we would have to win 10 in a row. Our record is 1 win and 6 losses against top 8 sides. Maybe we should just try to make the finals first before worrying about top 4.

spoil sport....

I would love you to be right but I havent seen anything in the last 3 weeks to suggest we are anywhere near good enough but if we can somehow beat Hawthorn then I may change my mind.

Teflon · Post: # 602642Post **Teflon** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:07pm

fonz_#15 wrote:
Teflon wrote:
saint edward wrote:Carn the saints grab the double chance

If we win 5 in a row (3 already) we will almost have it.
If we win 5 from 7 we finish 5th by my reckoning to face Sydney in Sydney....no thanks.
don't know what your understanding of the finals system is but if we finish 5th we host a finals game.

My apologies.

I think my understanding has been laid bare.

villasaint · Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:09pm

im not too optomostic either re top four. Sooper Dooper in my books being smashed is when you get beaten by at least 10 goals. Brisbane, Geelong and the dogs beat us yes but none of them beat us by more than ten goals.

jonesy · Post: # 602645Post **jonesy** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:09pm

Think we're all getting along way ahead of ourselves here!!

We haven't beaten anyone yet. If we win next week then I'll start thinking final scenarios,but I think it will still be a tough job making it and I'll be wrapped if we get there!

It was only 3 weeks ago when we were in utter dissarray and looking like a bottom 4 side about to fall into the depths of despair for the next 5 seasons..

Our run home is not as easy as everyone is saying. If we play like we were three weeks ago (freo game included) we will be lucky to win another game.

Two trips to Perth,Hawthorn,Collingwood..our two bogey sides in Port and Essendon (who looked superb last night btw), and you can never right off Adelaide. We could easily drop most of these. Most of them are winnable,but we are treading a very fine line at the moment going on form.

Let's just concentrate on each week,and hopefully we can make the 8,which alone would be a great achievement to where we were at 3 weeks ago as a club

fonz_#15 · Post: # 602648Post **fonz_#15** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:12pm

villasaint wrote:im not too optomostic either re top four. Sooper Dooper in my books being smashed is when you get beaten by at least 10 goals. Brisbane, Geelong and the dogs beat us yes but none of them beat us by more than ten goals.

wasn't much less than 10 goals either

bobmurray · Post: # 602663Post **bobmurray** » Sun 13 Jul 2008 11:40pm

I'm not losing site of the fact Carrrrrlton kicked 2 goals 8 in the first quarter,if they had 've kicked straighter in the first quarter we might be having a different discussion.....If we make the 8 it's experience for all the young guys with limited game time....that's as optimistic as i can get...

GeorgeYoung27 · Mon 14 Jul 2008 12:03am

I'm not losing site of the fact Carrrrrlton kicked 2 goals 8 in the first quarter

From my memory they kicked 2 goals 4 in the 1st quarter and we rushed 4 behinds. Ratten was hanging on the 2.8 in his press conference also, but for every sitter they missed, we missed one too. They had the better of the play (AND UMPIRING) but our defence held up pretty well also. On SEN commentators were saying at 1/4 time that they'd never seen US look so dangerous in attack for a long time.

mick13 · Post: # 602685Post **mick13** » Mon 14 Jul 2008 12:26am

Also I remember 2 of their kicks in the first quarter were touched on the line.

Not sure if that counts as rushed though?

Schillaci · Post: # 602725Post **Schillaci** » Mon 14 Jul 2008 9:21am

I would love to think that we could finish 4th but...."Tell him he's dreamin"

Our last 3 wins have been full of merit and things look much more rosey.

However.....we have beaten Fremantle, North Melbourne and Carlton.

Let's see how we do against the Dawks this week, a team that has lost only 2 games all year, before we jump the gun.

BAM! (shhhh) · Mon 14 Jul 2008 10:35am

I'd be shocked to see the Saints end up top 4... but... One interesting thing that came out of the weekend for me was that I don't think just about anyone in the 5-12 spots are in the same boat as they were a month ago.

I attended 2 games over the w'end. Ours obviously, and the Brisbane-Essendon game. One of the things that struck me was the similarity in the gamestyles with opposite results.

Both Carlton and Essendon were focusing their numbers on the ball... it effectively quarters the ground. If you can get a good string of handballs or a good switch on, you can often get an opportunity to score, as we did to Carlton. If your disposal falls over, as has been happening to Brisbane the last couple of games, then the ball comes towards your goals fast. Both Brisbane and St Kilda push numbers behind the ball, to make marking tough, but it can leave you vulnerable to long kicks and midfield goals.

Brisbane's midfield is also woefully out of form. Black and Power were non entities, and Travis Johnson was no match for an in form Essendon Brigade.

My point? We beat Essendon earlier in the year by 40 points. In spite of their form, I don't really think they're all that different a quality to the Carlton side we beat Friday night. Brisbane is struggling.

Adelaide has been iffy lately, and they just lost their forward line. Port suddenly becomes a danger game for them.

Sydney, after demolishing us, has been shown up by Collingwood and Hawthorn. The Swans are good, but 2nd tier... be interesting to see if they can put Carlton's finals hopes to the sword this weekend.

Collingwood may be marching towards a top 4 spot. It depends if they can establish some consistency in their game. I'd circle this week as a danger game for them (Pies-Roos is not dissimilar to Saints-Freo for freaky close finishes).

Till this last weekend, I'd been looking at us as a benchmark team - if you're a contender, you handle the Saints easily, if you're a pretender, you get done. Watching Brisbane give away a lead, reel it back in only to fall over once they got there for the 2nd game straight, while I'd hate to play them at the Gabba, they've got a lot of guys struggling at the moment and just aren't ready yet.

To an extent, similar with Sydney - I'd pencil them 5th right now, but if I could play them in Melbourne, I'd give us a chance.

St Kilda is playing a lot better than they were a month ago. Top 4 is probably out of reach at this stage, but it's wide open to chase a home final.

We've got one more chance (perhaps 2 depending on Collingwood) to measure ourselves against top 4 sides. This weekend. It's a big game if the '08 Saints want to be seen as anything more than finals filler.

WayneJudson42 · Mon 14 Jul 2008 11:02am

Whilst it's possible.. anything's possible. Season's can turn on one result. Just look at Adelaide. Who knows? Just keep winning and see how it pans out.

my les foote · Mon 14 Jul 2008 12:20pm

GeorgeYoung27 wrote:
From my memory they kicked 2 goals 4 in the 1st quarter and we rushed 4 behinds. Ratten was hanging on the 2.8 in his press conference also, but for every sitter they missed, we missed one too. They had the better of the play (AND UMPIRING) but our defence held up pretty well also. On SEN commentators were saying at 1/4 time that they'd never seen US look so dangerous in attack for a long time.

We should have been at least 4.2 at the break.

Armitage and Hayes both missed from inside 20m. Riewoldt missed from distance and one rushed behind.

From actual shots at goal it was Carlton 2.4 Saints 2.3

bigred · Post: # 602820Post **bigred** » Mon 14 Jul 2008 12:52pm

Top 4 we are not.

If we win 4/4 over the next month we would be right amongst it.

Just keep winning,...the ladder looks after itself.

Big ask this week....if we win that.......sheesh.

BAM! (shhhh) · Mon 14 Jul 2008 12:55pm

my les foote wrote:
GeorgeYoung27 wrote:
From my memory they kicked 2 goals 4 in the 1st quarter and we rushed 4 behinds. Ratten was hanging on the 2.8 in his press conference also, but for every sitter they missed, we missed one too. They had the better of the play (AND UMPIRING) but our defence held up pretty well also. On SEN commentators were saying at 1/4 time that they'd never seen US look so dangerous in attack for a long time.
We should have been at least 4.2 at the break.

Armitage and Hayes both missed from inside 20m. Riewoldt missed from distance and one rushed behind.

From actual shots at goal it was Carlton 2.4 Saints 2.3

There are 2 sides to that 1st quarter put up by carlton.

1) The sheer number of scoring shots was heavily created by the Saints inability to get the ball down field from kick ins... it's one of the reasons a straight comparison of scoring shots doesn't mean that equality there translates to accuracy being the issue.

2) We were being outplayed for large swathes of the 1st quarter, regardless of kick in ineptitude. That either of Hayes or Armitage nailing their shot would have had us up at quarter time speaks to the inability of the Carlton team to take advantage of this.

We weren't as bad as a 10 to 5 scoring shot line would imply we could have been.. BUT, we could have easily been down by 20 at 1/4 time against better opposition, and we can't afford to have the slow starts we have the last 2 games. While I prefer the one weak quarter games to one strong quarter games, the 1st quarter in the last 2 games has simply not been good enough.