Topping Up, Investing in Youth or Both?

[BackFromUSA]

This year's draft is the most important draft not only in recent history but in the Saints history and I believe strategy is going to be as important as talent identification.

The debate is obviously fuelled by the fact that Gold Coast and then West Sydney will be getting the best kids from 2010 to at least 2015. The flip side of that is that the other 16 clubs are EQUALLY disadvantaged - well at least in order of the draft picks according to their finishing position.

The other factor is that St.Kilda MUST win a premiership in the next 3 years. Four years at a stretch. Our core stars are now 25 to 29.

The Lions dynasty started winning premierships with their core at 26 to 29 ... and of course their 3 or 4 years at the top was followed by mass retirements and a slide from grace.

While I think the majority of AFL clubs will go the youth route this draft, there is a strong arguement for St.Kilda, Collingwood and even the Western Bulldogs to go the other way ... other than their first round draft pick which should be reserved for the best available youth prospect. it should be noted that a pick in the "teens" is no certainty to be a great player ... but a good ordinary player, at the worst ... one would hope.

These clubs will have their second round pick in the 30s and no matter how talented the draft is ... at 30 and beyond, every draft pick is a risk and at best a long term prospect. My opinion is that seasons 2009 to 2011 are more important than 2012 onwards when that player blossoms.

I say we should go against the trend to select youth in this draft and other than our first pick, we should be cherry picking players delisted or looking to swap clubs ... until the fourth round where we pick up a bottom ager.

First pick (mid teens) should be for a running midfielder with EXCELLENT kicking skills and hopefully a mature or strong maturing body.

I would be looking to off load our second round pick for a player that can play first 22 football for at least 3 years ... ideally more. This player (like Schneider) is READY to contribute to the team and should be a midfielder.

Third round draft choice is the next question. We would not get a player who is a walk up start to our 22 in a swap for our third round draft pick.

Instead we should look at players who have been cut by clubs who could give us a year or two contributing. If a medical testing shows Scott West could play football again, then this hard nut would be worth a third round draft selection (would be a late 40s pick) simply because we dont need him all year - we would just need him to play 8 to 10 games at the end of the year ... rounds 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and then finals. remember he polled brownlow votes in a game just prior to his injury. If he fails medical tests, then we should look to another talented, hard midfielder who has been delisted. Imagine is we had a fit West to replace Ball this year. He would be cream if no injuries ... insurance in case of injury.

You only have to look at Stuart Dew for Hawthorn yesterday. He was never recruited to play 22 home and away games. Hawthorn and specifically Clarkson wanted him for finals only and of course he was given 5 or so weeks to get his match fitness etc back before Finals.

It is probably what we should have done with Fraser Gehrig this year.

Our fourth rounder should be used on a bottom age draftee ... like we did with Jack Steven this year, because that kid certainly will not be available to us come draft time October 2009. That kid will not play before 2011 or 2012.

So we get:

* a decent kid (not top notch) with our first rounder.
* a top 22 trade with second rounder (e.g. Ray from WB?)
* a veteran to be warehoused for finals action with 3rd pick (West?)
* a bottom age talent (who would be a high draft pick next year) for #4

I only use these players as examples ... I may have a firm opinion once we know ALL the delisted players and players available (by choice or not) for trade.

[chook23]

I think many are missing it may be a better chance for some smart trading with GC etc

GC .....If the right player at right time is picked up by them some
high draft picks maybe available more cheaply than normal......

[Animal Enclosure]

Disagree.

Now is the time to add as many quality kids as possible and I think trading underperforming senior players with trade value is a real option.

Our best players are 22-25 (with Lenny being 28). We can add 5-6 quality kids to the list, maybe take a step outside the 8 in 09 & then set ourselves up to be real contenders when the GC & WS come into the AFL.

As Chook suggested when GC & WS come in we could be in a position to trade a senior player & get an early pick in a bumper draft (due to the drafting age being raised for the 09 draft).

Re-stock, re-plenish, re-juvenate & then re-joice!

[BackFromUSA]

chook23 - that fact is not lost on me. Gold Coast play their first season in 2012. We really have 2009, 2010 and 2011 as our prime opportunities.

We have 4 queensland boys on our list - Roo (approaching 30), Gilbert (will be mid 20s defender in his prime), David Armitage who should be an elite in and under midfielder by then and Brad Howard who may or may not be on the list by then. At the moment only one is a marquee name.

I am not interested in a debate on who should be traded (or not) to Gold Coast for trade picks to perhaps help reinvigorate our list for 2012 ... but everyone should remember the impact that the draft picks we received for Plugger had in our run into 1997. At the end of 2011 we shall all know the right thing to do for the St.Kilda Football Club from 2012 onwards.

[Sainternist]

Disagree.

Now is the time to add as many quality kids as possible and I think trading underperforming senior players with trade value is a real option.

Our best players are 22-25 (with Lenny being 28). We can add 5-6 quality kids to the list, maybe take a step outside the 8 in 09 & then set ourselves up to be real contenders when the GC & WS come into the AFL.

As Chook suggested when GC & WS come in we could be in a position to trade a senior player & get an early pick in a bumper draft (due to the drafting age being raised for the 09 draft).

Re-stock, re-plenish, re-juvenate & then re-joice!

I agree. We have neglected to recruit youth in more recent times.

Time to get in the new blood for a brighter future.

[BackFromUSA]

Top Player Ages for 2009 Season:

ALL AUSTRALIANS:

Nick Riewoldt - 26 turning 27 in October
Sam Fisher - 26 turing 27 in October

OTHER TOP PLAYERS

Max Hudghton - 33 all season
Steven King - 30 all season / M. Gardiner 30 in May
Lenny Hayes - 29 all season
Stephen Milne - 29 all season
Jason Blake - 28 all season
Justin Koschitzke - 26 all season
Leigh Montagna - 26 all season
Xavier Clarke - 25 all season (26 Monday after Grand Final)
Nick Dal Santo - 25 all season
Luke Ball - 25 from May
Jason Gram - 25 from April
Brendon Goddard - 24 from May

and hopefully fully recovered:

Matt Maguire - 25 from May
Steven Baker - 29 from May

I maintain the CORE of our team is 25 to 29 at the moment.

Gilbert is set to replace Hudghton from 2010 onwards.

McEvoy should be ready to replace King / Gardiner by 2010.

Our premiership window with this core is the next 3 years.

[maverick]

Max turned 32 this month so will be 32 all season bar the finals

[BackFromUSA]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

[chook23]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

By your comments Hawks will be next 5 years.......


our 04 seems like their 08...............they grabbed it.

[maverick]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

2/9/76, month day round the wrong way

[WayneJudson42]

I was about to start a thread concerning if we should rebuild starting now... so I'll hop into this one.

I agree that our core group is ripe "agewise" for a flag in the next 3 to 4 years.

Many are screaming about GC17 and drafts etc.

IMHO, 2 hard questions need to be asked...

1- Do we go the complete rebuild as many suggest and blood players which (a) may amount to nothing, or (b) won't have an impact until it's too late?

or

2- Do we go for a few young'uns... and some trades that will "top up" but have immediate impact?

The answer will depend on what the coach's believe they have at their disposal at the moment.

BTW, I agree with the op's view about trading Plugger etc. And I suspect that RL will review who he believes can play the way he wants them to, and the rest will be dispensible.

My view is that we ave the next few years to win a flag, and I do not believe that we are as "far away" as some people do. Why? Simply because after watching the GF, I believe that the key at the moment is mental toughness. Cats ARE beatable, and so to are Hawks and Doggies (which everyone thinks we are behind).

What will be required is to get players who are tough and ready to do whatever it takes to win the ultimate.

Nothing I saw in the 2nd half of the season suggests that the Cats or Hawks gameplan (rolling zone aside) is much different to ours.

Where we fall short is a lack of 6 to 8 players who are either not disciplined or mentally strong enough to maintain it for 4 Q's.

Part of this challenge will be addressed as the squad goes thru another pre season with our fitness guru (witness Max's ability to stay on the park this year). So physical strength should not be an issue.

The list's "mental" stremgth is the issue.

Is youth the answer?? Not if you believe that we are a chance in the next 4 years. BTW, although GC17 play in 2012... don't expect them to be an "instant" powerhouse IMO.

As I have posted in previous threads, we must keep an eye on the future... but we should do everything we can to exploit the current "core" group and win a flag. Otherwise we risk a new generation of Burkes Loewes, Harveys and Winmars.

To simple go with "kids" would be disasterous IMO and a complete waste of the great draft picks we had in the early 2000's.

[linz]

A bit of both for me. Our weakness is our midfield depth.
I'd take a punt on Cousins. He'll cost us $ not draft concessions.
Don't trade our picks. Pick midfielders.
Then cross our fingers that Goose is right for next year & Kosi improves
(if we don't trade him to the Blues.)

[maverick]

Agree with most on here by the way.
Next year is a golden goose ready to be taken IMO.
The Hawks have some key injuries from this year whcih will interrupt pre season, they will also suffer a little from premiership hangover I reckon.
The Cats will have some scarring from GF day and will be fragile come next September.
With no obvious challengers below them we have a golden opportunity next year if we can get something together.

Go all out next year for mine.
Keep the first pick, trade the second and get Cousins to the club.

[WayneJudson42]

Agree with most on here by the way.
Next year is a golden goose ready to be taken IMO.
The Hawks have some key injuries from this year whcih will interrupt pre season, they will also suffer a little from premiership hangover I reckon.
The Cats will have some scarring from GF day and will be fragile come next September.
With no obvious challengers below them we have a golden opportunity next year if we can get something together.

Go all out next year for mine.
Keep the first pick, trade the second and get Cousins to the club.

A little more optimistic than me, but I like your style.

Upon reflection... here's how I see it.

Mids: We need a replacement for 35. MAybe Cousins? Who knows? What I do know is this... Get a fit X into the team, as well as BJ, and Gram, with Ball and Hayes being our "inside" players, and we don't look so bad after all. Not sure about Dal. Either too lazy, too soft or other issues.

Backs: If we trade for KPP defender, I'd be wrapt. Add a fit Goose, and BJ and Gram can be freed up to play midfield. Can Raph become our Quaterback??

Fwds: Still lacking another fwd target IMO. Not sure if Kosi is the right man. Time will tell.

However... fix the first 2, and the fwd line takes care of itself when you have efficient delivery.

10% improvement across the board... some "ready made" recruits, and some further injection from our kids... and life looks much happier.

[maverick]

Agree with most on here by the way.
Next year is a golden goose ready to be taken IMO.
The Hawks have some key injuries from this year whcih will interrupt pre season, they will also suffer a little from premiership hangover I reckon.
The Cats will have some scarring from GF day and will be fragile come next September.
With no obvious challengers below them we have a golden opportunity next year if we can get something together.

Go all out next year for mine.
Keep the first pick, trade the second and get Cousins to the club.

A little more optimistic than me, but I like your style.

Upon reflection... here's how I see it.

Mids: We need a replacement for 35. MAybe Cousins? Who knows? What I do know is this... Get a fit X into the team, as well as BJ, and Gram, with Ball and Hayes being our "inside" players, and we don't look so bad after all. Not sure about Dal. Either too lazy, too soft or other issues.

Backs: If we trade for KPP defender, I'd be wrapt. Add a fit Goose, and BJ and Gram can be freed up to play midfield. Can Raph become our Quaterback??

Fwds: Still lacking another fwd target IMO. Not sure if Kosi is the right man. Time will tell.

However... fix the first 2, and the fwd line takes care of itself when you have efficient delivery.

10% improvement across the board... some "ready made" recruits, and some further injection from our kids... and life looks much happier.

Fair enough with all of that, for some reason I think a three way rotation with McEvoy, Kosi and King will work next year. Also think Goose can play a role at CHF lead up and turn style. He can kick beyond 50 and will be competitive in the air. Just needs some aerobic fitness.

Agree on X and BJ, we need to persevere with Dal unless a top 5 pick is in the offing...

Just hope we find a quality mid with pace or a key back in the draft.

I would trade our second pick to the Bombers for Lovett...

[saintsRrising]

Well based on the last two years ...and especially last year,and some of the recent gossip I would expect that:

* the Saints will trade for at least one player
*that we will draft several kids..
*mostly likey keep our first pick (unless we could snare Ker which would not seem likely....)

* that we will list an International Rookie from NSW
* that one of our NSW Scholraship kids will be rookie...


*that if he was stil avaialble that we would take Cousins in the PSD -but I think he will be a Pie most likely.

[Schillaci]

Depends on who we top up with....I'm all for getting Cousins or another elite midfielder should one become available and would be happy to see off someone like Kosi, Maguire, X.... combined with picks to snare that quality someone we need in the middle now that Harves is gone and we are still one of the better teams.

If we can't get Cousins or an elite midfielder then keep what we've got and draft the best young talent available.

[SaintWodonga]

Youth only... And Speed..

Look at both Hawks & Cats they both don't as many players from other clubs as we do. Maybe that's why some of our players don't bleed red, white & black. We need to cultivate our own recruits from scratch (just no more smokies please). End of rant.

[saintly]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

By your comments Hawks will be next 5 years.......


our 04 seems like their 08...............they grabbed it.

hawks window, is open now and for the next 5 years. they probably will win 3 more premierships with that list.

hard tough young skillfull footballers!

[St Marcus]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

By your comments Hawks will be next 5 years.......


our 04 seems like their 08...............they grabbed it.

hawks window, is open now and for the next 5 years. they probably will win 3 more premierships with that list.

hard tough young skillfull footballers!

Re Hawks window, we were all saying the same about Geelong 2 days ago.
Its a hard act to go back to back. I think there is a real chance for us next year if we get the midfield right. After all we did beat this years premiers.

[chook23]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

By your comments Hawks will be next 5 years.......


our 04 seems like their 08...............they grabbed it.

hawks window, is open now and for the next 5 years. they probably will win 3 more premierships with that list.

hard tough young skillfull footballers!

Re Hawks window, we were all saying the same about Geelong 2 days ago.
Its a hard act to go back to back. I think there is a real chance for us next year if we get the midfield right. After all we did beat this years premiers.[/quote]

But got SMASHED by them in a FINAL

[saintly]

A bit of both for me. Our weakness is our midfield depth.
I'd take a punt on Cousins. He'll cost us $ not draft concessions.
Don't trade our picks. Pick midfielders.
Then cross our fingers that Goose is right for next year & Kosi improves
(if we don't trade him to the Blues.)

i hate it that we have to cross our fingers and hope that goose, baker x clarke, kosi all improve and not be injured.

i wonder if other top teams do not think like that!

[SaintWodonga]

A bit of both for me. Our weakness is our midfield depth.
I'd take a punt on Cousins. He'll cost us $ not draft concessions.
Don't trade our picks. Pick midfielders.
Then cross our fingers that Goose is right for next year & Kosi improves
(if we don't trade him to the Blues.)

Agree.. If we do trade Kosi, make sure it's for picks!

[WayneJudson42]

AFL site has his birthday as 09/02/76 ... perhaps they have it wrong?

My point still stands ... our core is 25 to 29.

Our window is next 3 years.

By your comments Hawks will be next 5 years.......


our 04 seems like their 08...............they grabbed it.

hawks window, is open now and for the next 5 years. they probably will win 3 more premierships with that list.

hard tough young skillfull footballers!

Re Hawks window, we were all saying the same about Geelong 2 days ago.
Its a hard act to go back to back. I think there is a real chance for us next year if we get the midfield right. After all we did beat this years premiers.

Exactly...

Beware of the curse of the DYNASTY!

So far, it has claimed Port, WCE and now Geelong. Will the Hawks be next???

[GrumpyOne]

Lets toss the baby out with the bathwater and delist everyone aged 25+.

Nah..... bugger it..... lets toss everyone out and recruit solely from this years draft.

Think of the fantastic team we will have in 5-6 years time.... they will win five premierships in a row by then, with all the experience they will get being flogged by everyone in the interim.

FFS..... just get rid of the 4 or 5 non-performers and top up with new kids. If we maintain a team with enough quality to finish in the top four of the ladder each year, we will eventually win a premiership or two.