Current Saints list position

[bergholt]

It's worth trying to get a handle on exactly where our list is. I don't know all the rules exactly but I can compare to this year. In 2012 our list was this.

2012: 46 players; 38 main list (2 veterans), 8 rookies

Apparently rookie lists are shrinking by two this year, but I assume that the rest of the numbers stay the same. Currently then it's like this.

OUT: Crocker, Peake, Polo, Archer (r)
IN: Hickey, Lee
2013 provisional: 44 players; 37 main list (2 veterans), 7 rookies
Draft picks: 25, 26, 46, 47, 77, 95

We have to use at least three draft picks, but the third can be promoting a rookie. But we traded for pick 47 in the Hickey trade. While we could on-trade it, this suggests to me that we plan to use at least four picks in this draft.

Starting with the rookie list, we need to remove at least one more rookie. If we decide not to take any new rookies then promoting one rookie would be enough, or we could delist one from the list. My impression is that they've all done enough to earn one more year with Andreoli and Shenton being the closest to the edge, and Curren and Dunell have done enough to be promoted. I'll assume that one goes and one is promoted, which leaves us with a single spot on the rookie list and no spots on the main list.

OUT: Crocker, Peake, Polo, Andreoli (r), Archer (r)
IN: Hickey, Lee, Dunell (promoted)
2013 provisional: 43 players; 38 main list (2 veterans), 5 rookies
Draft picks: 25, 26, 46, 47, 77, 95

So if we do plan to use four picks then that means we need to remove four players from the main list. At the moment that looks comfortably like Blake, Clarke, Cripps and Ray. But that assumes that no players come in as exchange, and we don't get Brown - it seems unlikely now 13 is gone. Another option to free up a spot would be to push Winmar down to the rookie list. Considering he was fit all year in 2012 and only on the emergency list once, that seems a chance. This would free up a spot on the main list for a traded player, and mean we have no rookie draft picks.

OUT: Blake, Clarke, Cripps, Crocker, Peake, Polo, Ray, Winmar (demoted), Andreoli (r), Archer (r)
IN: Hickey, Lee, Dunell (promoted)
2013 provisional: 39 players; 33 main list (2 veterans), 6 rookies
Draft picks: 25, 26, 46, 47, 77

Of course, in this scenario our draft picks presumably improve in the trades for Cripps and Ray, and potentially Brown comes in there.

Thoughts? Is that even close?

[Seaford_Saint]

Who knows if it's close, but time will tell..... either way, it's certainly an intelligently constructed analysis!

[Spinner]

I like those outs except for Crocker. I hope he gets rookied.

[bergholt]

I like those outs except for Crocker. I hope he gets rookied.

Really? Have you seen something in him? Given that he spent most of the year at Sandy reserves it feels like he's a long way from AFL, but I've never seen the kid play. And if he did get rookied he'd have to take someone else's spot - who would that be?

[on the outer]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-ne ... 6499653820

"The league will reduce each club's rookie list from six to four players, after allowing clubs extra rookies in the expansion era"

Looks like you need to find two more rookies to delist.

[dragit]

Brendon Godiamrich

[bergholt]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-ne ... 6499653820

"The league will reduce each club's rookie list from six to four players, after allowing clubs extra rookies in the expansion era"

Looks like you need to find two more rookies to delist.

Yeah, you're right. That's weird because we had 8 this year not 6. Ferguson might have been NSW scholarship, I guess, but that still leaves us with 7 for no apparent reason.

In that case I imagine Shenton and Staley might be looking dubious? I don't really know though.