Why I'm excited. Dejavu - 2016 is 2003

[White Winmar]

Sitting on level 2 in the sunshine on Sunday, watching the maestro, Roo, put on a clinic, I couldn't help but get excited for the future. Not only because of the veteran champ, but because of the outstanding trading and drafting of the last few years was bearing fruit. McKenzie, White, Lonie, Billings, Acres, Ross, Newnes and Wright. Add in the absentees. Dunstan, Gresham, Goddard, Webster, McCartin, Rice, Sinclair, Templeton and Pierce. What about the trades? Hickey, Carlisle, Freeman, Roberton, Longer, Bruce, Membrey and Savage. What about our veterans? Steven, Montagna, Roo, Geary, Gilbo, Armo, Shinner and Chips. Add a free agent and a couple of high draft picks and we have a premiership challenging list.

All credit to Ameet Bains and the trout and his team. The trout was right to get rid of me. 14 years was way too long to be there. I'd slipped under the radar and the disastrous Peake regime sealed my fate. Still, I couldn't be happier. They've done an outstanding job in the last four years. We're on our way to replicating the success of 2004-2011, with the rider that we go one better. I think we can. Like Big Kev when he was alive. I'm excited!

[Teflon]

Huh?

[White Winmar]

Huh?

Huh?

[BackFromUSA]

WW did you work with gentleman John B?

[Trev from the Bush]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

[saintspremiers]

Sorry guys we failed as a team (Roo certainly didn't!) on Sunday.

My very smug step father, a mad Essendope fan, was delighted to land the number 1 pick

[saintspremiers]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

Didn't we say that when Plugger left?

[White Winmar]

WW did you work with gentleman John B?

For all fourteen years and it was a delight. One of nature's true gentlemen. Glad he's still involved. He's seen twelve coaches come and go. A survivor is our JB.

[SaintPav]

WW did you work with gentleman John B?

For all fourteen years and it was a delight. One of nature's true gentlemen. Glad he's still involved. He's seen twelve coaches come and go. A survivor is our JB.

What role does he play these days? Isn't it in a mentor/adviser capacity?

[Jacks Back]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

While he may not be, McCartin could be anything but we really need a better bottom 6 to win the big one which we didn't really have back in the previous period.

[White Winmar]

WW did you work with gentleman John B?

For all fourteen years and it was a delight. One of nature's true gentlemen. Glad he's still involved. He's seen twelve coaches come and go. A survivor is our JB.

What role does he play these days? Isn't it in a mentor/adviser capacity?

Yep. Consultant/adviser. In his day, he did it all on his own. Trout now has a team of full timers, plus JB. They've done an outstanding job over the last three to four years.

[Saint wagga]

This may be completely off the mark, but if we are to use the skills and battle scarred bodies of our A grade vets; Roo, Monti and Dempster +/- Fisher, we basically need to pinch a flag next year...is that likely...maybe 1000/1??

A few sides have made us look ordinary this year at times and the gulf has looked wide. Our best has been scintilating no doubt, but I reckon we are more likely to not realise the ultimate goal of a flag with any of the above 4 champs in the side...monti is probably the best chance to hang on till 2018, but our next flag side will probably look fairly different to the one that smashed the lions.

I'm not saying i want the above scenario to happen...would love us to get on a massive roll next year early, have carlise come in a just slot in seemlessly and be the big key back we've been whinning about the last 6 years!! Would love to see Paddy just dominate like a young Paul Salmon and tear the comp to shreds, and with bruce and skunk ridding shotgun be an unstoppable forward line with cameo's from Roo. I'd love to see our midfield again step up with Ross becoming elite, newnes becoming an elite wing, webster an elite running half back, acres be a young nat fyfe...

COuld all the above happen...possibly...could it all happen in the one season with minmal injuries to key players and can we get off to a good start and be...the chances become slim...but this is the time of year for dreaming...so i'm all in!!! bring on 2017

[Johnny Member]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

While he may not be, McCartin could be anything but we really need a better bottom 6 to win the big one which we didn't really have back in the previous period.

I've never bought in to the 'bottom 6' argument.


Contrary to popular belief, there's been plenty of average premiership players.

The main difference always is, how many 'top 6' players you have, and how good they are.


The bottom 6 are just along for the ride.


It's amazing how many great 'bottom 6' players turn out to be completely s*** when aren't playing in a team with a brilliant top 6.

[Johnny Member]

This may be completely off the mark, but if we are to use the skills and battle scarred bodies of our A grade vets; Roo, Monti and Dempster +/- Fisher, we basically need to pinch a flag next year...is that likely...maybe 1000/1??

A few sides have made us look ordinary this year at times and the gulf has looked wide. Our best has been scintilating no doubt, but I reckon we are more likely to not realise the ultimate goal of a flag with any of the above 4 champs in the side...monti is probably the best chance to hang on till 2018, but our next flag side will probably look fairly different to the one that smashed the lions.

I'm not saying i want the above scenario to happen...would love us to get on a massive roll next year early, have carlise come in a just slot in seemlessly and be the big key back we've been whinning about the last 6 years!! Would love to see Paddy just dominate like a young Paul Salmon and tear the comp to shreds, and with bruce and skunk ridding shotgun be an unstoppable forward line with cameo's from Roo. I'd love to see our midfield again step up with Ross becoming elite, newnes becoming an elite wing, webster an elite running half back, acres be a young nat fyfe...

COuld all the above happen...possibly...could it all happen in the one season with minmal injuries to key players and can we get off to a good start and be...the chances become slim...but this is the time of year for dreaming...so i'm all in!!! bring on 2017

No.

It's that type of expectation that worries me. Although it's as acknowledged as 'dreaming', it still leads to frustration a disappointment when it doesn't come to fruition.

Which it won't.


We're not good enough. We don't have anywhere near enough top end quality players to challenge the top 6 - let alone the top 4 or even the flag.

I don't even think we'll make the 8 FWIW.


The following year we should be top 8 - too 6. 2019 we should be aiming for too 4, assuming we're able to bring in and/or develop some elite talent.

[Linton Lodger]

I'm inclined to agree with the OP.

I was hoping this season would be like 2003 and I think it has turned out that way. Going back to 2003, at the time I was really pleased with that season, particularly how we finished. I was then really bullish going into 2004 and I await 2017 with some excitement.

I actually think that this season was better than 2003 and I think that's simply because this list is better than that list.

[Linton Lodger]

This may be completely off the mark, but if we are to use the skills and battle scarred bodies of our A grade vets; Roo, Monti and Dempster +/- Fisher, we basically need to pinch a flag next year...is that likely...maybe 1000/1??

A few sides have made us look ordinary this year at times and the gulf has looked wide. Our best has been scintilating no doubt, but I reckon we are more likely to not realise the ultimate goal of a flag with any of the above 4 champs in the side...monti is probably the best chance to hang on till 2018, but our next flag side will probably look fairly different to the one that smashed the lions.

I'm not saying i want the above scenario to happen...would love us to get on a massive roll next year early, have carlise come in a just slot in seemlessly and be the big key back we've been whinning about the last 6 years!! Would love to see Paddy just dominate like a young Paul Salmon and tear the comp to shreds, and with bruce and skunk ridding shotgun be an unstoppable forward line with cameo's from Roo. I'd love to see our midfield again step up with Ross becoming elite, newnes becoming an elite wing, webster an elite running half back, acres be a young nat fyfe...

COuld all the above happen...possibly...could it all happen in the one season with minmal injuries to key players and can we get off to a good start and be...the chances become slim...but this is the time of year for dreaming...so i'm all in!!! bring on 2017

No.

It's that type of expectation that worries me. Although it's as acknowledged as 'dreaming', it still leads to frustration a disappointment when it doesn't come to fruition.

Which it won't.


We're not good enough. We don't have anywhere near enough top end quality players to challenge the top 6 - let alone the top 4 or even the flag.

I don't even think we'll make the 8 FWIW.


The following year we should be top 8 - too 6. 2019 we should be aiming for too 4, assuming we're able to bring in and/or develop some elite talent.

Understand your caution, although I'm bullish about next year. When I say that I qualify that its not a given, we could have a bad run with injuries or other disruptions.

All things being equal, we are tracking ahead of schedule, as we were in 2003, and the distance between us and the true contenders isn't huge.

I'll put things in perspective, at the end of the 2008 season we were about 10 goals behind Geelong & Hawthorn. That was clearly demonstrated in the Qualifying & Preliminary Finals. We made up that ground in one preseason and moved ahead of them.

This year, going into the Finals, Sydney are the best team in the competition and an absolute genuine contender. Now I know they smashed us a few weeks ago, however a few in game disasters contributed to that blow out - injuries, mystifying 50 metre penalties etc. In reality Sydney at the moment are about 5 or 6 goals ahead of us.

We are actually closer than we were at the end of 2008. So it is very possible for us to really catapult into contention next year. I realise that doesn't mean we will, GWS may go up to another level for example or we could have a bad run with injuries. Nonetheless, our excitement isn't misplaced.

[Johnny Member]

All things being equal, we are tracking ahead of schedule, as we were in 2003, and the distance between us and the true contenders isn't huge.

I'll put things in perspective, at the end of the 2008 season we were about 10 goals behind Geelong & Hawthorn. That was clearly demonstrated in the Qualifying & Preliminary Finals. We made up that ground in one preseason and moved ahead of them.

This year, going into the Finals, Sydney are the best team in the competition and an absolute genuine contender. Now I know they smashed us a few weeks ago, however a few in game disasters contributed to that blow out - injuries, mystifying 50 metre penalties etc. In reality Sydney at the moment are about 5 or 6 goals ahead of us.

I don't agree at all. With all due respect, I think that's borderline delusional. Kennedy, Parker, Franklin, Hannebury, McVeigh, Tippett, Rampe, Mitchell, etc. etc. etc. We are absolutely nowhere near these guys.

The thrashings we copped by good teams, I think is exactly where we're at. They weren't aberrations in my opinion. They were truth.


The aberrations, were the wins over Geelong and the close call with Hawthorn. Aberrations from Geelong - as remember, they dropped games to Collingwood and Carlton too. Aberrations by Hawthorn as they were clearly rusty and had won two games by only 3 points prior to playing us - and then got wallopped by GWS by 80 points two weeks later.

Beating the teams below us was expected, but says far more about the unevenness of the comp than how close we are to the top teams. The gap between 7th and 8th is vast - the gap between 7th and 9th is a crevasse!


North beat us, when our season was on the line. Comfortably in the end. And they are a good 10 goals off the top 4. I think that is a realistic look at where we're at.


Now this is not a swipe at us. We're not underachieving. We're performing pretty much exactly as I would expect us to - if not better, at this stage of our rebuild and development.


In my opinion, if we played any of the top 7 teams in a final right now - we'd get brained by 10-15 goals.

Next year, I'd hope to see that come down to 5-6 goals. The year after I'd hope to beating most of them.


But my expectation for 2017 is very tepid. And will stay that way until the young guys on our list become really good players. Bu that won't be next year.

[Johnny Member]

I'll put things in perspective, at the end of the 2008 season we were about 10 goals behind Geelong & Hawthorn. That was clearly demonstrated in the Qualifying & Preliminary Finals. We made up that ground in one preseason and moved ahead of them.

But we had elite talent on the list back then.

We had elite talent at the peak of their powers in the team.


We don't at the moment.

[Saint wagga]

All things being equal, we are tracking ahead of schedule, as we were in 2003, and the distance between us and the true contenders isn't huge.

I'll put things in perspective, at the end of the 2008 season we were about 10 goals behind Geelong & Hawthorn. That was clearly demonstrated in the Qualifying & Preliminary Finals. We made up that ground in one preseason and moved ahead of them.

This year, going into the Finals, Sydney are the best team in the competition and an absolute genuine contender. Now I know they smashed us a few weeks ago, however a few in game disasters contributed to that blow out - injuries, mystifying 50 metre penalties etc. In reality Sydney at the moment are about 5 or 6 goals ahead of us.

I don't agree at all. With all due respect, I think that's borderline delusional. Kennedy, Parker, Franklin, Hannebury, McVeigh, Tippett, Rampe, Mitchell, etc. etc. etc. We are absolutely nowhere near these guys.

The thrashings we copped by good teams, I think is exactly where we're at. They weren't aberrations in my opinion. They were truth.


The aberrations, were the wins over Geelong and the close call with Hawthorn. Aberrations from Geelong - as remember, they dropped games to Collingwood and Carlton too. Aberrations by Hawthorn as they were clearly rusty and had won two games by only 3 points prior to playing us - and then got wallopped by GWS by 80 points two weeks later.

Beating the teams below us was expected, but says far more about the unevenness of the comp than how close we are to the top teams. The gap between 7th and 8th is vast - the gap between 7th and 9th is a crevasse!


North beat us, when our season was on the line. Comfortably in the end. And they are a good 10 goals off the top 4. I think that is a realistic look at where we're at.


Now this is not a swipe at us. We're not underachieving. We're performing pretty much exactly as I would expect us to - if not better, at this stage of our rebuild and development.


In my opinion, if we played any of the top 7 teams in a final right now - we'd get brained by 10-15 goals.

Next year, I'd hope to see that come down to 5-6 goals. The year after I'd hope to beating most of them.


But my expectation for 2017 is very tepid. And will stay that way until the young guys on our list become really good players. Bu that won't be next year.

I disagree - the dogs came 7th...They are knowhere near that far advanced than us. We have taken huge strides in bridging the gap witht hem this year! Our forward line looks very ominous. We haven't even really factored in the possible exponential improvements from billings and McClunkin. Add in Acres, Mackenzie, Webster, Ross...we have guys that could explode onto the big stage next year. Most of the commentators still hardly know/rate some of our youngsters. I hope this chnages in a massive way. We have huge upside!

[Johnny Member]

I disagree - the dogs came 7th...They are knowhere near that far advanced than us. We have taken huge strides in bridging the gap witht hem this year! Our forward line looks very ominous. We haven't even really factored in the possible exponential improvements from billings and McClunkin. Add in Acres, Mackenzie, Webster, Ross...we have guys that could explode onto the big stage next year. Most of the commentators still hardly know/rate some of our youngsters. I hope this chnages in a massive way. We have huge upside!

The Dogs had a horror run with injury though.

[saintsRrising]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

While he may not be, McCartin could be anything but we really need a better bottom 6 to win the big one which we didn't really have back in the previous period.

Actually our bottom 6 is fine. Or rather we have quite a pool of players that should be adequate and who probably are actually better than what we had during our last GF crack.

It is the Top 6 that is lacking for elite talent.

Our rebuild has gone well and we have virtually every position covered but at this point in time we lake quality.....we lack elite players. Currently we only have two in Steven and Roo (and Roo is not getting any younger).

While there are some potential elite's 1/ They may never get there and 2/ Even if they do it is not enough.

[SAAD]

The only year I want a repeat of is 1966

[Trev from the Bush]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

Didn't we say that when Plugger left?

We may have. And we will never have a other Plugger. G-Train was a good substitute but certainly not the second coming of Plugger.

[White Winmar]

Gotta agree with the comparison, except for one very important difference. Our improvement in 2013 and 2016 had a common thread by the name of Nick Reiwoldt leading the charge.

Try as we might, we will NEVER see the likes of him again in our generation. Probably not the next, either.

While he may not be, McCartin could be anything but we really need a better bottom 6 to win the big one which we didn't really have back in the previous period.

Actually our bottom 6 is fine. Or rather we have quite a pool of players that should be adequate and who probably are actually better than what we had during our last GF crack.

It is the Top 6 that is lacking for elite talent.

Our rebuild has gone well and we have virtually every position covered but at this point in time we lake quality.....we lack elite players. Currently we only have two in Steven and Roo (and Roo is not getting any younger).

While there are some potential elite's 1/ They may never get there and 2/ Even if they do it is not enough.

Good point, SR. I'm willing to wager that by 2018, Gresham, Acres and McClunkin will be elite. Ross and Hickey are maybes, as is Carlisle, who was close to that status before the troubles at the dopers began. The next two drafts and trade periods will tell the tale. An elite FA or two and some more canny trading and the picture will be complete.

[citywest]

Sitting on level 2 in the sunshine on Sunday, watching the maestro, Roo, put on a clinic, I couldn't help but get excited for the future. Not only because of the veteran champ, but because of the outstanding trading and drafting of the last few years was bearing fruit. McKenzie, White, Lonie, Billings, Acres, Ross, Newnes and Wright. Add in the absentees. Dunstan, Gresham, Goddard, Webster, McCartin, Rice, Sinclair, Templeton and Pierce. What about the trades? Hickey, Carlisle, Freeman, Roberton, Longer, Bruce, Membrey and Savage. What about our veterans? Steven, Montagna, Roo, Geary, Gilbo, Armo, Shinner and Chips. Add a free agent and a couple of high draft picks and we have a premiership challenging list.

All credit to Ameet Bains and the trout and his team. The trout was right to get rid of me. 14 years was way too long to be there. I'd slipped under the radar and the disastrous Peake regime sealed my fate. Still, I couldn't be happier. They've done an outstanding job in the last four years. We're on our way to replicating the success of 2004-2011, with the rider that we go one better. I think we can. Like Big Kev when he was alive. I'm excited!

My signature was out by 1 year.
I'm expecting to win the first 10 on the trot next year and then we are off to the movies.