The Run Home - Results I want to see

[Turbo]

The following results would see us end up in 6th with a first home final against the Eagles.
Nice scenario, but we have to win all our remaining games!
We can only hope.

Rnd 20
Eagles v Cats
Crows v Dockers
Saints v Demons
Suns v Giants
Swans v Pies
Blues v Lions
Hawks v Power
Tigers v Dogs
Bombers v Kangas

Rnd 21
Cats v Saints
Bombers v Blues
Giants v Demons
Dockers v Tigers
Pies v Kangas
Lions v Crows
Power v Eagles
Dogs v Swans
Hawks v Suns

Rnd 22
Tigers v Bombers
Power v Lions
Saints v Giants
Swans v Hawks
Eagles v Pies
Suns v Blues
Cats v Dogs
Kangas v Dockers
Demons v Crows

Rnd 23
Blues v Saints
Bombers v Pies
Tigers v Power
Hawks v Eagles
Cats v Swans
Crows v Suns
Lions v Dogs
Giants v Kangas
Dockers v Demons

[noob]

On the outlook of things.. If we win the final 4 games we are still a good chance to make finals. North and Freo play each other. Essendon are fading and West coast haven't got an easy run home either.

[SaintPav]

Port v Eagles result in round 21 isn't likely. However, you have them winning round 22 against the pies so might cancel out.

We'll need to win the last 4 which will have us playing finals. Harder said than done. Cats game is obviously the key.

[felix]

The Kangas could easy drop the next 3

[bergholt]

The Kangas could easy drop the next 3

...but they'll win the last one so that puts them three games ahead of where we are now. just to get above them we'd have to beat one of carlton and geelong.

also keep in mind that the kangas losing those three means both freo and essendon winning.

[SaintPav]

We won't miss if we win all 4 but.....

[Turbo]

A lot of the games have no real bearing on were we finish, we're looking at taking Bomber spot in the finals if all goes to plan.

[saintspremiers]

What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!

[SaintPav]

A lot of the games have no real bearing on were we finish, we're looking at taking Bomber spot in the finals if all goes to plan.

Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.

[SaintPav]

What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!

Not really. The statistical probability of winning first division tatts is higher than being knocked off by someone.

[bergholt]

Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.

i reckon 25% chance of beating geelong, 50% chance of beating carlton, 100% chance of winning the other two. so for mine that's a 12.5% chance overall - one in eight.

[SaintPav]

Will be one of Freo, North or Essendon if we win all 4. I like it how it's in their hand; it's a really good challenge for them. It will be hard but not impossible. I'll give them a one in three chance to do it.

i reckon 25% chance of beating geelong, 50% chance of beating carlton, 100% chance of winning the other two. so for mine that's a 12.5% chance overall - one in eight.

That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.

[bergholt]

That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.

fair point. and to be honest, if we beat geelong then our chance of beating carlton goes up to about 75%, i reckon, because they'll be essentially out of it at that point and we'll be in pretty sweet form with three wins on the trot.

[SaintPav]

That would be the correct way of doing it but it still does not take into account other results. I was using Pav's probability. I know I'm deluding myself but what other reason do i have to support them week in week out.

fair point. and to be honest, if we beat geelong then our chance of beating carlton goes up to about 75%, i reckon, because they'll be essentially out of it at that point and we'll be in pretty sweet form with three wins on the trot.

Agree. I thing we have a 30-40% chance of beating Cats.

[Old Mate]

Pretty simple equation. We win our remaining games we make the finals. I had us losing against the Swans and Pies and winning the remaining games and making the finals, however that was when the Cats weren't looking to flash. That'll be the make or break game.

Freo beating the Weagles put a spanner in the works. They are the form team (along with Syd) and could end up with 14 wins. The Dons are gone and the Weagles aren't safe. The Cats now look a sure thing.

[saintspremiers]

We could win our last four and still miss out.

Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!

[Old Mate]

We could win our last four and still miss out.

Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!

We could I suppose but a lot of the teams competing for the remaining 4 spots (including WC cos they could easily lose 3/4) play each other.

Some critical games over the remaining 4 rounds including the teams competing for those spots:

Round 20:
WC V Gee
Ess V NM

Round 21:
Gee V St K
Ess V Carl

Round 22:
NM V Freo

Round 23:
Carl V St K

[SaintPav]

We could win our last four and still miss out.

Someone please give me the % chance of that happening!

We could I suppose but a lot of the teams competing for the remaining 4 spots (including WC cos they could easily lose 3/4) play each other.

Some critical games over the remaining 4 rounds including the teams competing for those spots:

Round 20:
WC V Gee
Ess V NM

Round 21:
Gee V St K
Ess V Carl

Round 22:
NM V Freo

Round 23:
Carl V St K

Essendon v Tigers is also a critical one..Tiger will be all over them but will find a way to lose.

[Munga]

If we beat Geelong, I can see te cats missing the finals. Shame they beat the Hawks last week, they would've been a near shoe in to miss.

[Turbo]

What a waste of time doing this. Got as much chance of this happening as winning tatts!

What a strange comment. Generaly someone wins tatts every week!
Anyway I have time to waste.

[St. Luke]

We won't miss if we win all 4 but.....

I was messing around with the ladder predictor and also came up with the same scenario.

If we drop one game, we're as good as gone. If we win them all we're in. Big ask to finish off the rest of the season undefeated, but it's what we need to do if we're going anywhere in the 2012 finals.

[philtee]

British Open 2012 - Ernie Els started the last nine holes 6 shots off the lead, but everyone else crumbled, and
he won the thing. It can happen. This season ain't cooked yet.

[SainterK]

British Open 2012 - Ernie Els started the last nine holes 6 shots off the lead, but everyone else crumbled, and
he won the thing. It can happen. This season ain't cooked yet.

[markp]

Win the next 8 and I'll be happy.

[SainterK]

Win the next 8 and I'll be happy.

I think that's fair and reasonable