Lets get fair dinkum about Kosi!!!

[Bernard Shakey]

Time to move on!

[jackal]

Can't be bothered reading all of this thread but really the Saints have to play the cards they have been dealt, no point in trading the core group in the hope of a miracle cure to the premiership drought. Have to back in the group we have got and build around these guys.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Its funny that everyone is criticising Kossi -

if you actually check out his stats, he's having his best season in AFL football...

-most games played
-most goals kicked
-most marks
-most tackles
-most possies

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/play ... itzke.html

That's amazing I don't know how to take that. Do I say "If this is his best year his others must have been disgraceful" or "Obviously my eyes have deceived me and he's been very Impressive and having a Stella season".

Coming up with this doesn't add any credibility it only now opens up some questions If this is his best year.

I think what it really says is that stats are still a very new way of looking at football - and the closed shop approaches of places like Champion Data doesn't help (in Baseball in the USA, guys like Bill James initially made their mark from the outside, as fans) - and that often footy fan and understanding stats are anything but synonymous...

It's pretty simple to see that if you just look at totals, it's going to correlate pretty highly to games played. If you dig a bit deeper (and I haven't, so happy to be corrected if I'm wrong), I'd be very surprised to find that Kosi's achieved career bests outside of managing to stay on the park without some new way of having his body explode. As much as I like my quantifiables, rule #1 is generally that if the numbers are telling you something ridiculous, it's more likely that you;re using the wrong numbers than there's a stroke of genious.

From my looking throughout the season (if I may beat my dead horse a moment longer) his contested numbers tell me there's a lot of talent there. His general numbers (i.e. disposals, kicking efficiency, goals and hitouts) tell me that's nice, but that talent doesn't come up enough per game to get really excited about him these days. To go out on a limb and apply some personal observations to the stats, he needs to get to the drop of the ball more, and that means working harder, leading harder, and reading the play better... and the numbers won't tell us whether those things are possible.

Career highs in totals are something to be wary of in isolation.

[saintsRrising]

Its funny that everyone is criticising Kossi -

if you actually check out his stats, he's having his best season in AFL football...

-most games played
-most goals kicked
-most marks
-most tackles
-most possies

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/play ... itzke.html

It's pretty simple to see that if you just look at totals, it's going to correlate pretty highly to games played. If you dig a bit deeper (and I haven't, so happy to be corrected if I'm wrong), I'd be very surprised to find that Kosi's achieved career bests outside of managing to stay on the park without some new way of having his body explode. As much as I like my quantifiables, rule #1 is generally that if the numbers are telling you something ridiculous, it's more likely that you;re using the wrong numbers than there's a stroke of genious.

.

Exactly BAM!


This is what I wrote in a string earlier in the week...

nothing against RL he is a great coach but have kosi and dal slipped a little since he has taken over?

With Kosi...if you take out those 5 goldern games in 2005...there is not really much to hang your hat on that he was ever more than a average player.

Thing is too that in the history of AFL many players have had many mini-hot-streaks.....but then cannot maintain it as opposition coaches really study them and work out any chinks. With Kois he simply is very poor at any body on body work. So opposition players wil take front position etc as they know Kosi is likely to infirnge. They also know that he is easily nudged off the ball in marking contests.

His main asset is that he is a nice leap for apack mark. But in these days of kicking to players in space and uncontested ball , how often does that happen.

Kosi would have dominated 20+ years ago....but modern gamestyles do not suit his strength and expose his weakneses.


The sooner we accept him as an average, but handy player (who will have occassional day outs or great quarters) rather than asa "star" the happier that we and he will be.

Career Season Totals
Year Team Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hitouts Frees For Frees Ag. Brownlow


Career Season Averages
Year Team Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hitouts Frees For Frees Ag. Brownlow
2008 St Kilda 20 7.4 4.4 11.8 6.6 1.4 0.9 2.2 6.0 0.8 1.3
2007 St Kilda 19 8.3 4.7 13.0 6.1 1.4 0.7 1.6 8.2 1.4 1.2
2006 St Kilda 7 4.6 2.6 7.1 4.6 0.9 1.1 0.3 3.0 0.6 1.0
2005 St Kilda 13 9.1 5.5 14.5 7.3 1.8 1.1 2.8 13.5 1.4 1.7 0.85
2004 St Kilda 17 7.4 3.8 11.2 5.4 1.2 0.6 1.6 6.1 0.8 1.2 0.21
2003 St Kilda 17 6.7 4.2 10.9 4.8 0.8 0.3 1.5 9.0 1.1 1.7
2002 St Kilda 4 4.2 2.0 6.2 4.2 0.5 0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.5
2001 St Kilda 20 6.8 4.8 11.6 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.15
Career 117 7.3 4.3 11.6 5.6 1.0 0.6 1.5 6.5 0.9 1.1 0.18

Kosi is a 100 game player that has not improved...

He stagnated early on apart from one stellar burst. Because of that stellar burst most over-rate his abilities.

The test ofa player is once he has exposed himseld in the AFL and opposition coaches have hada chance to nut them out and work out tactics to best countercat them.


If the players improves after that...then you get a good player. Many do not.


Dal is another case..though Dal is a much better player than Kos. Dal is a very good player...but one who showed promising signs that he could be elite...but which so far he has been unable to become.

[suss]

Does any one else get the feeling these are exaclty the kind of observations/criticisms levelled at Ottens a few years back by Richmond fans??? And we all know how that turned out...

[WayneJudson42]

Does any one else get the feeling these are exaclty the kind of observations/criticisms levelled at Ottens a few years back by Richmond fans??? And we all know how that turned out...

which is exactly why I posted that he's a 25 year old body and a 20 year old footballer. He's lost a lot of game and development time over the years, so it will be interesting to see how he'd go with another preseason.

Having said that... the coaches are in a better place to make the call, and if a deal can be struck that is of greater benefit to the club, then you have to look at it.

Same goes with Dal.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

The sooner we accept him as an average, but handy player (who will have occassional day outs or great quarters) rather than asa "star" the happier that we and he will be.

Career Season Totals
Year Team Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hitouts Frees For Frees Ag. Brownlow


Career Season Averages
Year Team Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hitouts Frees For Frees Ag. Brownlow
2008 St Kilda 20 7.4 4.4 11.8 6.6 1.4 0.9 2.2 6.0 0.8 1.3
2007 St Kilda 19 8.3 4.7 13.0 6.1 1.4 0.7 1.6 8.2 1.4 1.2
2006 St Kilda 7 4.6 2.6 7.1 4.6 0.9 1.1 0.3 3.0 0.6 1.0
2005 St Kilda 13 9.1 5.5 14.5 7.3 1.8 1.1 2.8 13.5 1.4 1.7 0.85
2004 St Kilda 17 7.4 3.8 11.2 5.4 1.2 0.6 1.6 6.1 0.8 1.2 0.21
2003 St Kilda 17 6.7 4.2 10.9 4.8 0.8 0.3 1.5 9.0 1.1 1.7
2002 St Kilda 4 4.2 2.0 6.2 4.2 0.5 0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.5
2001 St Kilda 20 6.8 4.8 11.6 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.15
Career 117 7.3 4.3 11.6 5.6 1.0 0.6 1.5 6.5 0.9 1.1 0.18

Kosi is a 100 game player that has not improved...

He stagnated early on apart from one stellar burst. Because of that stellar burst most over-rate his abilities.

The test ofa player is once he has exposed himseld in the AFL and opposition coaches have hada chance to nut them out and work out tactics to best countercat them.


If the players improves after that...then you get a good player. Many do not.


Dal is another case..though Dal is a much better player than Kos. Dal is a very good player...but one who showed promising signs that he could be elite...but which so far he has been unable to become.

The line I've left from your other post at the top is pretty much where I stand on Kosi. He's utility that will spend 80% of his time not being a liability, 5% of the time he'll have brain explosions, and the remaining 15%, he'll have one of the kind of bursts that get us all excited, where he finds that niche where his skillset matches the need and opportunity perfectly and appears dominant - e.g. the West Coast game (where he was floating forward from the ruck... once injured and moved to FF, he did very little) where with their desire to play Cox free, he was able to frequestly get a mismatched opponent when he drifted forward.

Statistically, I think the Dal comparison is interesting, because I see the same flaw in both players: the inability to command the uncontested ball in damaging quantities.

Both players are skilled with the ball (big difference is that Dal is great at spotting openings and opportunities, Kosi is a hospital handpass machine), and both good at winning the contested ball (Kosi is actually ridiculously good at this, more than half his possessions over the home & away were won in a contest, and while Dal's percentages have dropped with less time in the centre square, he is at his best in traffic, and the numbers reflect this)... but neither has ever managed to attract the kind of possession totals to be consistent gamebreakers. In Dal's case, until '08 his disposal has been so good that his 20-25 touches are as damaging as 26-30 from many, but to get to the 30+ that would make him a killer, he needs to be a much more regular option to be played through - especially on the run.

To bring it back to Kosi, my view of the "potential" has become that if he ever achieves it, whoever is coaching him will deserve a lot of the credit. Be it fitness, ability or smarts, he doesn't regularly put himself in the positions to run at where the next kick is going, and that's where his contested skills come to the fore. In the ruck he can win it in the pack, but he can't join the run, up forward, both the wrestle and the lead aren't key weapons (and they need to be in a FF)... in short, to be good, he needs to have certain types of situations served up to him, and that is a big ask.

I think there are things that can be one to get more out of Kosi (e.g. I think there is room for him, King and M Gardiner... having someone else as the target in the goalsquare and Kosi running at that contest would seem to suit his skills)... but I don't think it's something you base a game around. I think if one accept him as he is, and cross the fingers that he does address his weaknesses, then the amount of angst devoted to this debate stops making sense after a while. He's a big lug, but he's our big lug, and footy's a game where you need to have some big lugs. There's no point being angry he's not Dean Cox.

[saintsRrising]

Does any one else get the feeling these are exaclty the kind of observations/criticisms levelled at Ottens a few years back by Richmond fans??? And we all know how that turned out...

I think may not be recalling exactly what Ottens delivered which was a lot more than J Kosi...and he ceratianly deliver great form in more than one mini-streak.

There are some pararllels though....including that perhaps may get morte out of himself witha change of scenery.

Yes Ottens was up and down...but he was still a good player. The Richmond expectation however was that he would be a superstar.

Ottens as a Richmond player was better than Kosi has been as a Saint player.

Year Team Games Kicks Handballs Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hitouts Frees For Frees Ag. Brownlow
2008 Geelong 14 4.2 8.6 12.9 4.6 0.9 0.5 3.1 20.1 0.8 2.1
2007 Geelong 22 6.0 7.4 13.4 5.2 1.0 0.7 3.1 19.0 1.4 1.2
2006 Geelong 22 6.3 4.7 11.0 4.7 1.2 0.9 2.0 14.5 1.3 0.7
2005 Geelong 15 5.4 5.9 11.3 4.6 1.5 0.8 1.9 11.5 1.2 1.3 0.13
2004 Richmond 18 5.7 7.2 12.8 5.5 0.9 0.4 2.1 23.6 1.3 1.7
2003 Richmond 12 7.5 7.8 15.2 5.9 0.8 0.4 2.8 20.0 1.4 1.5 0.08
2002 Richmond 20 8.0 5.7 13.7 5.1 1.4 0.8 2.0 18.8 1.9 1.6
2001 Richmond 24 9.6 5.2 14.8 6.9 1.9 0.9 1.8 13.4 1.2 1.5 0.29
2000 Richmond 21 8.3 5.4 13.7 5.6 1.4 0.6 1.0 15.1 1.1 1.1 0.19
1999 Richmond 22 5.0 4.4 9.4 3.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 12.1 0.7 0.9 0.05
1998 Richmond 12 2.5 2.8 5.2 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 5.8 0.6 0.3
Career 202 6.5 5.8 12.3 5.0 1.2 0.7 1.9 15.9 1.2 1.3 0

His form when he left was such that the Cata's were willing to pay two first round draft picks for him.

It is true that he has becomea more consitent player at the Cats though.


It is also true that Ottens was perhaps bedivilled bya lack of confidence as Kosi would seem to be....but gain Otens at Richmond delivered more than Kosi has delivered so far at the Saints.



As per my earlier post....we need to accept that Kosi can bea serviceable player for us. If we keep going along thinking that every week he can havea barnstorming game then we are going to be disappointed.

With a greater workrate and application..and increased confidence he can be better than what he currently is and more useful to our team.

[To the top]

The very fact that this is still going speaks volumes about the St Kilda brand.

Perhaps we can turn the question around and ask what is acceptable form?

30 kicks a week?

20 marks a week?

10 tackles a week?

10 goals a week?

30 hit-outs a week?

Each of these?

Last week Kosi took 7 marks (all overhead I think from memory and in intermittent drizzling conditions) and had 15 disposals.

In a badly beaten team.

He was a very long way from our worst.

So why all this crap about him?

I think the problem is that he is picked (nominally) as a full-forward and St Kilda followers, starved of success, look for small pickings such as Lockett kicking 100 goals a season - and Lockett becomes the bench mark for anyone named at full-forward - glory hunters in a poor team - poor because the last premiership was in 1966.

Get into the real world, people.

[mischa]

So far, Kosi and Dal r going, anyone else we've managed to destroy the careers of

[st.byron]

The very fact that this is still going speaks volumes about the St Kilda brand.

Perhaps we can turn the question around and ask what is acceptable form?

30 kicks a week?

20 marks a week?

10 tackles a week?

10 goals a week?

30 hit-outs a week?

Each of these?

Last week Kosi took 7 marks (all overhead I think from memory and in intermittent drizzling conditions) and had 15 disposals.

In a badly beaten team.

He was a very long way from our worst.

So why all this crap about him?

I think the problem is that he is picked (nominally) as a full-forward and St Kilda followers, starved of success, look for small pickings such as Lockett kicking 100 goals a season - and Lockett becomes the bench mark for anyone named at full-forward - glory hunters in a poor team - poor because the last premiership was in 1966.

Get into the real world, people.

nah TTT, it's not about expecting 100 goals a season or any such dominance for me. It's about consistently making a telling contribution to the team. Didn't see the game last week so can't comment specifically on that performance. Other posters have however suggested that most of his possessions were uncontested, as were most of his marks. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.
Koschitzke has failed to make any consistent telling contribution. That's the issue. Disregarding the occasional flashes of brilliance, his efforts in games I have seen on the box have more often than not been inconsistent and below GOP standard. He's goes missing, shanks kicks horribly, looks slow and turns the pill over far too often.
Not expecting the guy to dominate the comp but the benchmark of a really good player is being consistently good. And he isn't.

[stinger]

i love"informed comments'..from pple who didn't see the match...and only ever watch the saints on the idiot box.....ffs.....


....armchair flowering experts..........

[Cro]

I think the problem is that he is picked (nominally) as a full-forward and St Kilda followers, starved of success, look for small pickings such as Lockett kicking 100 goals a season - and Lockett becomes the bench mark for anyone named at full-forward - glory hunters in a poor team - poor because the last premiership was in 1966.

Get into the real world, people.

I disagree, Kozi has hardly been a good FF this year. He doesn't get to enough contests, at least then the ball would come to ground for the little fellas.

He doesn't play at FF all game, but you'd still want a return of around 2 goals a game. His work around the ground is pretty good, he just goes missing up front, so maybe they need a replacement at FF and just let him play around the ground and push forward as a third option?

[st.byron]

i love"informed comments'..from pple who didn't see the match...and only ever watch the saints on the idiot box.....ffs.....


....armchair flowering experts..........

you're right Stinger. All people who live in WA, Queensland, NT, NSW, SA, Tassie or overseas who don't regularly see live games stop posting immediately. You're all flowering f-witted armchair arseclowns and dipsh*ts.

[stinger]

well...stop talking sh!t....you have no idea how much a player is working, by watching on the idiot box.....

most don't...you do....

[st.byron]

well...stop talking sh!t....you have no idea how much a player is working, by watching on the idiot box.....

most don't...you do....

agree that you don't see the off the ball work, but you can still assess a player's impact on the game.

[stinger]

well...stop talking sh!t....you have no idea how much a player is working, by watching on the idiot box.....

most don't...you do....

agree that you don't see the off the ball work, but you can still assess a player's impact on the game.

no you can't ...not properly anyway......

[To the top]

St Byron, your response really says it all.

I note that you did not go to the game last weekend, and I doubt you have been to a game in the last 25 years.

The days of the 1960's when you kicked to contests are gone.

These days you rely on your running players to take control of the ball and kick to the advantage of their target/s.

Contested marks, and, indeed, the opportunity to take contested marks are few and far between.

So, if Kosi is the target of the player delivering, and has space on his opponent then that is what is required, isn't it?

[WayneJudson42]

So his handful of good games were either a glimpse of his potential... or an abberation where he played above himself.

Either way you look at it... he's either underperforming... or a GOP.

Was #2 pick; is supposed to be one of our superstars... So he's not above scrutiny. If he's a GOP, he should be treated as so.

Club will decide, coz I'm a know nothing nuffy.

Their decision will be ok with me, coz they know more than we do.

[saintsRrising]

St Byron, your response really says it all.

I note that you did not go to the game last weekend, and I doubt you have been to a game in the last 25 years.

The days of the 1960's when you kicked to contests are gone.

These days you rely on your running players to take control of the ball and kick to the advantage of their target/s.

Contested marks, and, indeed, the opportunity to take contested marks are few and far between.

So, if Kosi is the target of the player delivering, and has space on his opponent then that is what is required, isn't it?

So what is Kosi's No 1 skill?

Answer... taking floating pack marks (so he would have been fantastic in the 60"s.)

Kosi finding space??? He is not quick and struggles to do this as a key full forward.

One on one at FF...his body work and positioning is poor...meaning that FB's out wrestle and position him. On the lead he is slow...so fails to create space.

Solution: Put him across HF where he can float about.


Ruckwork: sorry .if you watch him he has little ability to use his body in ruck contests.

Last week: Ball use...Kosi was slipshop and careless...


Conclusion: For whatever reason Kosi is not fuly switched on at pesent with indiferent concentration.

He is better than this....but equally he is not the superstar that many hoped he would be.

He is however a more than useful player on his day...but he needs to pull his finger out and use the ball better and concentrate better.

Better delivery would assist him greatly as he does not have Roo's talent to change his pace....but unfortunately forKosi the abilty to use the ball well was not a recruiting priority with JB amd so most players at the club by current AFL standards have poor to average disposal skills.

PS....I have hardy missed a Victorian game any venue for 3 decades....and so my views on Kosi are not gained from just the TV. though this complete dismissing of people interstae is pretty lame.

[st.byron]

St Byron, your response really says it all.

I note that you did not go to the game last weekend, and I doubt you have been to a game in the last 25 years.

The days of the 1960's when you kicked to contests are gone.

These days you rely on your running players to take control of the ball and kick to the advantage of their target/s.

Contested marks, and, indeed, the opportunity to take contested marks are few and far between.

So, if Kosi is the target of the player delivering, and has space on his opponent then that is what is required, isn't it?

For a start TTT you can lose the condescending and dismissive tone. How the f*** would you know how many games I've been to in the last 25 years?
And no need to lecture me about the modern trends of the game. The day's of long kicks to contests as the dominant method of moving the ball are gone. No s*** sherlock!!!

If Kosi is the target and gets space on his opponent then great. Yep that's good. So what. It's how damaging he is when he gets it. He's played 20 games this year, 19 last year, so any excuses about not being match fit or having inadequate preparation are bulls***.
Since you're so keen on assessing his value based purely on possessions and you seem to think 15 is a sign of a good game :

In his 20 games this year he's had 10 possessions or less in 9 of those games.
In another 4 games he's had 11 or 12 possessions.

That's 14 games out of 20, or 70% of matches, he's had 12 possessions or less including possession tallies of 5,7,8,8,9,9 and 9.

In those 14 games he's kicked 16 goals, playing often as a full forward. Yet you reckon he's making a consistent contribution. 1 goal per game as a full-forward. Whoa!!!!

If you reckon he can't be assessed on goals as a full-forward coz he's rucking as well -
In those 14 games he's had 50 hit-outs including individual game hit-out tallies of 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,4 and 5. Average hit-outs per game in those 14 games = 3.5. That's consistent. Consistently poor.

So based on your purely statistical method of evaluating worth, he's been average or below for 70% of the season. So why defend him as though he's earning his keep?
I'd like to see him rip it up as much as the rest of us, but it's time to call a spade a spade with Kosi. He's inconsistent and more often then not, below the standard of a GOP.

[saintsRrising]

You know about 40 -ish games ago there was a group of players who decided to pull their fingers out......and they have since dominated the football world.

Now some of them admiteddlly had very good raw talent ( Gablett or Johnno) and they now make more of it...but importantly all the GOPS became average players..the average good players etc.....and by and large they did it by committing to working harder on their individual game...and more importantly their TEAM games.



With Kosi.....do you watch him and go away thinking...yes he gabve his all today..and eac and ever week? No you do not.

With CJ..if you ask the same question...the answer you get is YES he does.

If Kosi could deliver CJ's committment he would be a much better player (not necessarily a star...but better).

Kosi, like many Saints needs to find another gear. If he can...and they do we will bea much more competive unit.

[brown-coat]

Kosi. No heart. The evidence? Every week he plays.

Disinterested body language. IT's pathetic and sad to watch.

[StNoodles]

If you look at Kosi's total games played, how many full seasons does it equate to?

Ruckmen take longer to develop, we all know that, and just becase Kosi plays forward sometimes, doesn't change the fact he is essentially a ruckman.

How long (as in games played) did Cox take to hit his straps? Ottens?

If we give up Kosi now, we'd be handing an opposition team a KPP we've devloped, just when he's coming good. Too great a risk imo.

[WayneJudson42]

If you look at Kosi's total games played, how many full seasons does it equate to?

Ruckmen take longer to develop, we all know that, and just becase Kosi plays forward sometimes, doesn't change the fact he is essentially a ruckman.

How long (as in games played) did Cox take to hit his straps? Ottens?

If we give up Kosi now, we'd be handing an opposition team a KPP we've devloped, just when he's coming good. Too great a risk imo.

Agree with game time... but,

Ottens was great at Richmond, then form dropped after he lost his nut... and has now come good again.

Is he coming good? That remains to be seen.

All I know is that whatever happens in the next few weeks, RL has had a good look at who can stand up and play the way he wants them to play.

It will be an interesting end to the year.